Micron HBM Sales Surge, Palantir’s Stock Keeps Climbing | Bloomberg Tech 6/26/2025

Key Concepts:

• Micron's AI-driven demand and pricing
• High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production complexities
• AI infrastructure buildout and investment opportunities
• Overconcentration in Mega-Cap Tech and diversification
• AI's impact on non-tech sectors (healthcare)
• Chinese AI startups listing in Hong Kong
• TSMC's currency hedging operations
• CoreWeave's stock surge and wealth creation
• Fair Use Doctrine in AI training data
• Defense tech spending surge and innovation
• Palantir's role in defense and GenAI
• Modernizing the U.S. defense industrial base
• AI-powered cybersecurity and vulnerability detection

Micron's Earnings and AI Demand

• Micron's forecast shows strong demand in the AI context, with pricing being a key conversation.
• AI is a particularly strong tailwind for pricing, but the consumer market (smartphones, PCs, SSDs) remains important.
• Seasonal tailwinds (smartphone/PC upgrades) are beneficial for pricing, but structural limitations in capacity exist.
• Supply issues have been more prevalent than demand issues for many companies.
• Spot prices and contract prices have increased, building into expectations for Micron.
• High expectations exist across multiple facets of the business, including gaining share in high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
• Data center growth is expected to continue to outperform other businesses.
• Micron is investing in and building out capacity.
• HBM production is more complex than other memory products due to stacked designs (e.g., 12-high stack, 8-high stack).
• Increasing stack height increases complexity, allowing Micron to charge a premium.
• Yields are a very important topic of conversation, impacting Micron's ability to increase share and gross margin.

AI Investment and Market Enthusiasm

• Enthusiasm surrounds AI innovation, particularly in infrastructure and hardware names.
• Mega-cap tech companies are spending almost a quarter of a trillion dollars on semiconductors, data centers, and supporting compute.
• The AI infrastructure play is still in its early innings, with an expected $7 trillion to be spent on AI CAPEX.
• The next stage will be more about the adoption of AI and commercializing AI products.
• There is an overconcentration in mega-caps, with 95% of AI exposure coming from these names.
• Diversification is needed across the value chain, reducing large-cap tech exposure.
• Non-tech sectors, such as healthcare, are primed for AI, particularly in utilizing patient data, hospital management, and drug development.
• The U.S. is leading in public market opportunities in AI due to low cost of capital and innovative companies.
• Target allocation models have allocated to AI, reducing large-cap tech exposure.

AI's Impact on the Economy and Policy

• AI can augment and make processes more efficient, accelerating productivity.
• AI is needed to maintain strong GDP growth in developed economies with aging populations and slowing labor market growth.
• AI is at the crux of geopolitics, with policymakers seeing it as an accelerant for the economy.

Chinese Tech and M&A

• China is giving approval for more M&A among its tech giants.
• A growing number of Chinese AI startups are looking to list in Hong Kong.
• Digital payment provider PI Labs has filed to go public in India.
• Tokyo Electron is confident in maintaining its lead over Chinese competitors through faster technology innovation.
• Xiaomi launched its first electric SUV, the SU7, priced competitively against Tesla's Model Y.
• The Chinese government is providing more support to tech companies due to the rocky economy and breakthroughs in AI.

TSMC's Currency Hedging

• TSMC is set to inject $20 billion in capital into its overseas unit to shore up its currency hedging operations.
• This is to manage exchange rate risks and counter the impact of a stronger Taiwanese dollar.

CoreWeave's Stock Surge

• CoreWeave's stock has had a meteoric rise of around 300%, propelling the CEO into the ranks of the world's richest.
• The company debuted in mid-March at a $23 billion valuation.
• Nvidia increased its stake in CoreWeave, contributing to the stock's rise.
• The speed of wealth gain for the CEO is exceptionally fast compared to the average.

Fair Use Doctrine and AI Training

• A U.S. District Judge ruled that Anthropic's use of millions of books to train its models was legal under copyright law, falling under the Fair Use Doctrine.
• Anthropic acquired over 7 million books, including pirated copies and physical copies, to train their models.
• The judge determined that this use was sufficiently transformative and did not harm the commercial prospects of the original works.
• The main response is likely to be an appeal.
• The ruling could allow companies to ingest information without paying, but it raises concerns about the incentive for people to write new books.

Defense Tech Spending and Innovation

• Global tensions are fueling a surge in defense tech spending and investment.
• NATO is increasing its budgets up to 5% of GDP, and the U.S. is also increasing defense spending.
• There is a pivot to GenAI being embedded in all weapons systems.
• Palantir is a pure-play in this area, signing deals with Israel, Ukraine, and NATO.
• Advanced technologies are giving Israel and Ukraine an advantage in conflicts.
• Traditional primes like Lockheed and Raytheon are not known for GenAI software, leading to Palantir being brought in as a pseudo-prime.
• Drones and machines on the ground are changing the rules of the game.
• The U.S. needs modern capabilities to effectively fight and afford wars.
• Defense Acquisition Software is designed to replace manual processes and provide visibility into global supply chains.
• The U.S. DOD still relies on spreadsheets for managing parts and suppliers.
• Executive orders and calls to enforce the Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act aim to modernize defense acquisition.

AI-Powered Cybersecurity

• A one-year-old startup has developed an AI tool that's better at identifying software vulnerabilities than experienced hackers.
• The AI tool is at the top of the leaderboard for the U.S. on a platform that connects hackers with companies.
• Cyberattacks are on the rise, and AI models trade on open-source software, which is more vulnerable.
• The goal is to build a cybersecurity platform that helps find vulnerabilities and fix them automatically.
• The AI is already identifying vulnerabilities at top companies like Palo Alto Networks, AT&T, Disney, and Sony.
• The focus is on speed, helping companies secure themselves before the bad guys get in.
• AI is raising the ceiling for performance of the best professionals in cybersecurity.

Salesforce and AI

• Salesforce is developing an AI product like customer service without human supervision.
• Marc Benioff believes that today's CEOs will be the last to manage all human workforces.
• Digital labor will include AI agents and robots.

Conclusion:

The broadcast covers a range of technology and financial topics, highlighting the increasing importance of AI across various sectors, including memory (Micron), cybersecurity, defense, and enterprise software (Salesforce). It also addresses geopolitical factors influencing tech investments, such as China's evolving tech policies and global tensions driving defense spending. The discussion emphasizes the need for innovation, diversification, and strategic adaptation in a rapidly changing technological landscape.