Merz under fire for Stadtbild comments -- but did they actually help him? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Public Safety Perceptions: How safe individuals feel in public spaces.
• Irregular Migration: Migration that occurs outside the legal frameworks of a country.
• Cityscape Issues: Concerns related to the appearance, order, and safety of urban environments.
• Migration Background: Individuals who have migrated to Germany or whose parents have migrated.
• Far-Right Politics: Political ideologies characterized by nationalism, anti-immigration sentiment, and often authoritarian tendencies.
• Deportation: The formal removal of a foreign national from a country.
• Silent Majority: A group of people whose opinions are not often expressed but who may hold significant views.
• Economic Stagnation: A period of slow or no economic growth.
• Remigration: A far-right talking point advocating for the mass return of immigrants to their countries of origin.
• Asylum Claims: Applications for protection made by individuals seeking refuge in another country.

Chancellor's Remarks and Public Reaction

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has faced criticism for recent comments linking public safety perceptions in cityscapes to irregular migration. A new survey indicates that while half of all people feel safe or very safe, the number of those feeling unsafe has increased since February, prior to the last general election. Merz's remarks are perceived as an attempt to regain voters who have shifted to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

In Nuremberg, a city with a significant population (half a million) and a 50% migration background, Nasam Ahmed, a candidate for Lord Mayor, expressed anger over Merz's comments, calling them a "punch in the face" to those who have contributed to building Germany. Ahmed argued that diversity is a strength and suggested Merz should apologize for linking public safety to irregular migration.

While a poll indicated that most people agreed with Merz that undocumented migrants without employment are a problem in cities, there was also significant criticism. Some individuals felt that while problems exist in certain gathering spots, turning it into a debate about deportations is "disastrous and dangerous." Others felt misunderstood, with one person stating, "The way it was presented was a bit extreme. He said, 'Ask your daughter. I also have a daughter, but I also feel comfortable going out. I'm not afraid.' I feel safe. Yes." Conversely, some believed the "silent majority understood very well what he meant," referring to changes in cities regarding cleanliness and demographics.

The Rise of the AfD and Political Strategy

The sentiment of unease in cities is seen as a contributing factor to the rise of the far-right AfD, which is currently topping nationwide polls. This surge in support for the AfD is pressuring the conservative parties to respond. Merz acknowledged the presence of individuals with pro-Putin, pro-Russian, anti-Semitic, and racist views within the AfD's ranks. The strategy outlined is to address these issues directly, make them clear, and simultaneously attempt to win back AfD voters by demonstrating the ability to "fix the problems," with migration being a key focus.

However, campaigners against right-wing extremism warn that this approach may backfire, effectively "g[iving] it to the mill for the AfD." They argue that when such issues are raised, the AfD will be chosen, and they will benefit from it. There is a concern that a chancellor's role should be to unite people, which Merz has not done, thus contributing to societal division. Nasam Ahmed hopes his platform for more positive politics will resonate with voters in the upcoming Bavarian elections in March.

Impact of Merz's Comments on Party Support

Political correspondent Matthew Moore discussed whether Merz's comments have hurt him. Despite the controversy, a few weeks after the remarks, it does not appear to have significantly damaged his standing. Latest polls show the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merz's party, at 27%, the AfD at 26%, and the Social Democrats (SPD) at 14%. The CDU holds a fragile one-point lead. While other polls have shown the AfD ahead, this particular poll, considered one of the most accurate, indicates the CDU has gained one point in the past month, while the AfD has seen a slight decrease. This is seen as vindication for Merz's approach.

Tactic of Addressing Immigration and its Challenges

The tactic of discussing immigration by the CDU and other parties is an attempt to take ammunition away from the AfD's messaging and to demonstrate that the government is addressing key issues. Public polling on Merz's remarks showed broad support, with many agreeing that Germany needs to deport individuals who no longer have a right to be there.

However, this strategy faces two significant problems:

1. Controversial Tone and Government Division: The controversial nature of Merz's remarks led to strong reactions, forcing his governing partner, the SPD, to publicly distance themselves. This creates an image of internal government conflict, which is detrimental to projecting an image of effective governance. It also provides fodder for the AfD, allowing them to portray the government as "squabbling among themselves."
2. Expectation Management and Practicalities: Discussing "problems in the cityscape" and linking them to foreign-looking men is one thing, but the practical ability to remove these individuals is another. Many may have a permanent right to remain, and many are German citizens. The challenge lies in managing expectations, as simply stating an intention to carry out more deportations, even with supporting statistics, does not guarantee a change in the "look" of German cities.

Key Voter Concerns in Germany

Polling on key voter concerns in Germany reveals the following:

1. Immigration (32%): This is the top concern. Voters want the government to be able to return individuals whose asylum claims have been rejected. There is a perception that the government has struggled to track and return such individuals, whether to other EU countries or their home countries. The German government is actively seeking agreements with countries like Afghanistan and Syria to facilitate returns.
2. Economy (Second Place): The economy is consistently a crucial issue for German voters, especially during a period of economic stagnation.
3. Inequality/Poverty (Third Place): This issue also ranks high among voter concerns.

The primary focus for the German government over the next four years will be on getting the economy back on track and addressing the issue of immigration.

The Dilemma of Addressing Immigration

The dilemma in addressing immigration is that focusing too heavily on it can inadvertently benefit the far-right AfD. By making their talking points mainstream, other parties struggle to compete with the AfD's radical stance on "remigration" and harsh immigration rules. This approach risks amplifying the AfD's narrative and helping them gain further support.

Conclusion

Chancellor Merz's strategy of addressing public safety concerns by linking them to irregular migration has generated significant debate. While it has garnered some public support and appears to have stabilized his party's poll numbers against the rising AfD, it carries substantial risks. The controversial tone has exposed divisions within the governing coalition, and the practical challenges of deportation and managing public expectations are considerable. Ultimately, the German government faces the complex task of addressing voter concerns about immigration and the economy without inadvertently strengthening the far-right by adopting their rhetoric.