Market Call: Rebecca Teltscher's outlook on Canadian Stocks (May 19, 2026)

Key Concepts

• Capital Preservation: An investment strategy prioritizing the protection of the initial investment over speculative gains.
• Hard Assets: Tangible assets (pipelines, utilities, infrastructure) that provide intrinsic value, as opposed to "soft assets" (software, intellectual property).
• Concentration Risk: The danger of a portfolio being overly exposed to a single sector (e.g., U.S. Tech/AI).
• Yield-Focused Investing: Prioritizing companies with consistent, growing dividends, especially in defensive sectors.
• Secular Trends: Long-term market shifts (e.g., pilot training needs, nuclear energy growth) that outweigh short-term economic volatility.

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Market Outlook and Risks

Rebecca Teltscher identifies two primary risks currently facing the market:

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty: The market is underpricing the complexity of global conflicts, specifically the "clean exit" scenarios anticipated by investors regarding energy supply chains (e.g., the Strait of Hormuz).
2. Macroeconomic Disconnect: There is a growing rift between the bond market (pricing in higher inflation) and the stock market. Central banks are in a difficult position, balancing downward-revised employment data against rising inflation risks.

Teltscher notes that U.S. markets suffer from high concentration risk, with technology and AI-related stocks accounting for a disproportionate share of S&P 500 gains.

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Sector Analysis and Stock Commentary

Telecommunications

• Rogers Communications (RCI.B): While it has outperformed peers, Teltscher prefers Telus for its turnaround potential and BCE for its superior dividend yield. She views the sector as defensive, though currently hampered by a competitive, price-cutting promotional environment.

Energy and Commodities

• Agnico Eagle (AEM): Despite gold’s historical role as a "safe haven," it is currently trading as a "risk-on" asset. Teltscher remains cautious but views Agnico as the preferred gold stock due to its low geopolitical risk (Canadian/U.S. operations).
• Northland Power (NPI): A "wait and see" stock. Following a dividend cut and management changes, the firm is holding its position but remains skeptical about long-term ownership.
• ARC Resources (ARX): Regarding the Shell buyout, Teltscher advises selling before the deal closes, as the 75% stock/25% cash structure creates a "moving target" for value. She prefers Tourmaline as an alternative gas exposure.
• Nutrien (NTR): Favored for its retail agricultural business, which provides a stable dividend, rather than its volatile commodity-based business.

Financials and Real Estate

• Big Banks (TD, Royal Bank): Teltscher has avoided these for a year, arguing they are "priced to perfection." She warns that recent earnings beats were driven by low-quality levers, such as releasing credit loss provisions or closing branches.
• RioCan (REI.UN): Viewed as a potential source for yield (5%+), though she cautions that the retail sector faces risks from store closures (e.g., The Bay, Toys "R" Us).

Industrials and Tech

• CAE Inc. (CAE): A rare non-dividend-paying pick. Teltscher argues the stock is undervalued due to a misunderstanding of its business; while airlines may struggle with fuel costs, the long-term secular trend for pilot training remains robust.
• Shopify (SHOP): The firm avoids Shopify, preferring "hard assets" over "soft assets" (intellectual property/goodwill) that are more vulnerable to AI disruption.

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Portfolio Strategy: "New Picks"

1. Premium Brands Holdings (PBH): A consumer staple pick. Despite a recent bad quarter, Teltscher is "all in," citing their completed $750 million capacity expansion in the U.S. as a major growth catalyst.
2. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.UN): Viewed as a "private equity company in a Canadian wrapper." It offers a 5% yield and highly diversified assets, including data centers and ports.
3. CAE Inc. (CAE): Highlighted for its dual exposure to civilian flight simulation and defense contracts.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The overarching philosophy of New Haven Asset Management is conservative capital preservation. Teltscher emphasizes that in a market where valuations are "through the roof," investors should prioritize companies with tangible assets, reliable dividends, and long-term secular growth drivers. She warns against speculative tech plays and advises investors to look past short-term "noise" (like daily geopolitical tweets) to focus on the fundamental health and management discipline of the underlying businesses.