Market Call: Colin Cieszynski's outlook on Technical Analysis (April 7, 2026)

Key Concepts

• Technical Analysis: A methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
• Relative Strength (RS): A comparative analysis tool used to measure the performance of a stock or sector against others to identify capital flow.
• Point and Figure Charting: A charting technique that focuses on price movements, filtering out time and volume to identify trends and support/resistance levels.
• Range Trading: A market condition where prices fluctuate within a specific high and low range rather than trending strongly in one direction.
• Ascending Triangle: A technical chart pattern indicating a series of higher lows below a fixed resistance point, often signaling a potential breakout.
• Trailing Stop: A risk management strategy where a stop-loss order is set at a percentage below the market price and moves up as the stock price rises.
• Fibonacci Retracement: A tool used to identify potential levels of support or resistance based on the mathematical ratios of a price move.

Market Overview and Methodology

Colin Cieszynski, Portfolio Manager and Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, emphasizes that the current market is in a state of high volatility, largely driven by geopolitical tensions. He notes that the market has been "range trading"—moving sideways with significant hour-to-hour swings.

Methodology:

• Relative Strength: SIA Wealth Management primarily uses relative strength to track "head-to-head" battles between assets. This identifies where money is flowing before it is reflected in broader economic data.
• Leading Indicators: Cieszynski argues that stock prices often anticipate future fundamentals and commodity price movements. He cites the energy sector’s rise in January—prior to the war—as evidence that capital flows often lead news events.

Sector Analysis and Trends

• Energy & Materials: These sectors have outperformed during the recent conflict. Cieszynski highlights that the war has disrupted supply chains for chemicals and fertilizers, particularly those moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Utilities: Often viewed as a defensive play, utilities are attracting interest due to lower volatility and the growing demand for power from the AI sector.
• Mega-Caps: The "Magnificent Seven" and other large-cap tech stocks have underperformed relative to the broader market since the start of the year, as investor focus shifts toward infrastructure and materials.

Stock-Specific Analysis

• Alimentation Couche-Tard: Currently range-bound between $68 and $84. It is viewed as a defensive retailer; support is noted at $77.
• Northland Power: Forming an "ascending triangle" pattern with resistance at $25. A breakout above this level would be a significant technical signal.
• Pembina Pipeline: Currently in a strong uptrend, having broken out above $60 to new all-time highs.
• Micron Technology: In a consolidation phase following its addition to the S&P 100 index.
• Berkshire Hathaway: Showing signs of a potential top with a series of lower highs. It is currently neutral with downside risk if it breaks below $450.
• Constellation Software: Experienced a significant sell-off; currently in a stabilization phase but lacks clear upward momentum.
• Tamarack Valley: A junior producer benefiting from the rally in oil prices.
• Silver: Experienced an "unprecedented" rally. Cieszynski notes that a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its peak would place it near $65.
• GE Vernova: Currently the highest-ranked North American large-cap stock in SIA’s model, exhibiting a "staircase pattern" of steady accumulation.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• War Impact: Cieszynski notes that most economic data currently available is pre-war. The upcoming earnings season is critical because it will provide the first corporate guidance on how the conflict is impacting specific industries and the broader economy.
• Technical vs. Fundamental: When asked if he looks at balance sheets, Cieszynski states: "We believe that the fundamentals get factored into the price of the stock and that stock prices anticipate future fundamentals." He argues that technical analysis often "sidesteps" negative earnings surprises by identifying deteriorating relative strength before the news is released.
• Geopolitical Risk: He warns that stocks in the aerospace and defense sectors are highly sensitive to political rhetoric and shifts in government policy.

Synthesis

The market is currently navigating a period of high uncertainty where traditional economic data is lagging behind real-world geopolitical events. Cieszynski’s approach prioritizes relative strength and price action over fundamental analysis, arguing that capital flows are the most reliable indicator of future performance. Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong momentum—specifically energy, fertilizers, and power infrastructure—while utilizing risk management tools like trailing stops to protect gains in a volatile environment.