Market Call: Colin Cieszynski's outlook on Relative Strength and Technical Analysis

Key Concepts

• Relative Strength: A key analytical technique used to identify stocks or sectors outperforming others, indicating potential investment opportunities.
• Technical Analysis: Evaluating investments based on past market data, primarily price and volume, to predict future price movements.
• Ascending Triangle: A bullish chart pattern indicating a potential breakout, formed by a horizontal resistance level and an upward-sloping trendline.
• Staircase Pattern: A bullish chart pattern characterized by rallies followed by consolidations at higher levels, indicating steady accumulation.
• Head and Shoulders Bottom: A bullish reversal pattern signaling a potential end to a downtrend.
• ADR/CDR: American/Canadian Depositary Receipts – certificates representing ownership of foreign stocks traded on US/Canadian exchanges.
• ETF: Exchange Traded Fund – a type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges, often tracking an index, sector, or commodity.

Market Call Summary – Colin Cieszyński (SIA Wealth Management) – January 26, 2026

This summary details the insights shared by Colin Cieszyński, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, on the January 26, 2026, episode of Market Call. The discussion covered Canadian employment numbers, tariff impacts, energy sector dynamics, precious metals outlook, and specific stock/ETF analysis using relative strength and technical analysis.

1. Canadian Employment & Economic Overview

The Canadian employment numbers for December showed an unemployment rate increase, but this was attributed to more people entering the workforce. Crucially, the economy added 8,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of a 5,000 job decline. This was considered a positive sign, indicating continued economic resilience despite expectations of a slowdown. A surprising decline in manufacturing jobs was noted, but Cieszyński believes the market has largely adjusted to the impact of previously implemented tariffs, and further concerns depend on the continuation of current negotiations. The situation in Venezuela was acknowledged as a potential risk to the Canadian energy sector, but initial market reaction was muted, with oil prices stabilizing after a brief dip. Demand for oil appears stable, contrasting with the volatility in natural gas prices.

2. Precious Metals Outlook (Gold & Silver)

Despite a strong performance in 2025, Cieszyński remains positive on precious metals (gold, silver) in 2026. Uncertainties persist, and the US dollar’s trajectory remains a key factor. While expecting a less dramatic surge than 2025, he believes a favourable trend remains, though with potential for corrections and consolidation. Silver’s impressive 2025 run (breaking through $35) was highlighted, but a similar performance isn’t anticipated.

3. Technical Analysis & Chart Patterns

Cieszyński emphasized the importance of technical analysis, focusing on chart patterns and relative strength. Key patterns discussed included:

• Staircase Pattern: Identified in Reddit (RDDT), indicating steady accumulation and a strong, constructive chart. Resistance was noted around $2.75-$2.80, with a breakout above $2.40 already occurring.
• Ascending Triangle: Observed in Leon’s Furniture (LFL), suggesting potential for a breakout, with resistance around $30.
• Head and Shoulders Bottom: Recognized in Algonquin Power & Utilities (ATCO), signaling a potential reversal of a downtrend.
• Higher Lows: A consistent pattern observed in several stocks (Rio Tinto, ATCO) indicating continued buying pressure and potential for further gains.

4. Stock Specific Analysis

• Rio Tinto (RIO): Benefiting from rising base metal prices (copper hitting all-time highs). The chart showed a breakout to new highs, supported by strong relative strength rankings. Tariff concerns are largely priced in.
• Venezuela Impact: While acknowledging the potential for disruption, the initial market reaction to the Venezuelan situation was limited, and oil prices have begun to creep back up.
• Fortinet (FTNT): A concerning chart showing a breakdown below $80, lacking a rebound. A potential sell signal.
• Apple (AAPL): Experiencing profit-taking, but still within a correction phase. Caution advised, waiting for a clearer signal before re-entry.
• Lululemon (LU): Potentially bottoming out, showing a “saucer bottom” formation. A breakout above $210-$220 on volume would be a positive signal.
• Royal Bank (RY): Currently in a healthy uptrend, with consolidation periods being normal. No immediate signs of a trend reversal.
• TFI International (TFII): Showing a constructive chart with a breakout, supported by higher lows.
• Novo Nordisk (NVO): Benefiting from rotation into drug stocks, showing strong relative strength.
• BMO Global Gold Index ETF (ZGDX): Top-ranked Canadian ETF, benefiting from the strong gold market.
• First Quantum Minerals (FM): Ranked #2 in Canadian stock rankings, benefiting from rising copper prices and limited senior base metal producers in North America.
• Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA): Ranked #1 in ADR/CDR universe, showing strong relative strength and benefiting from a broader trend in the pharmaceutical sector.
• SoftBank (SBF): A previous pick that was sold due to volatility and declining relative strength.

5. Investment Strategy & Methodology

Cieszyński’s investment approach centers on relative strength – identifying stocks and sectors outperforming others. He emphasizes buying strength and selling weakness, and using technical analysis to identify key entry and exit points. He also highlighted the importance of monitoring moving averages and looking for support failures as indicators of trend reversals. He advocates for a disciplined approach, rotating out of underperforming assets and re-entering when relative strength improves. He also noted the importance of understanding the difference between a correction within a trend and an actual end to a trend.

6. Notable Quotes

• “The trend is your friend until it ends.” – Emphasizing the importance of following established trends.
• “We try to buy things that are showing strength. We’re fine with buying high and selling higher.” – Highlighting a focus on momentum and relative performance.
• “It’s hard to tell, is it something in a normal correction within an ongoing trend or an actual trend ending?” – Underscoring the difficulty of timing market tops and bottoms.

7. Data & Statistics

• Canadian employment increased by 8,000 jobs in December, exceeding expectations of a 5,000 job decline.
• Copper prices hit a new all-time high this week.
• BMO Global Gold Index ETF (ZGDX) is the top-ranked Canadian ETF.
• First Quantum Minerals (FM) is the second-ranked Canadian stock.
• Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) is the top-ranked ADR/CDR.

Conclusion

Cieszyński’s analysis paints a cautiously optimistic picture. While acknowledging potential risks (Venezuela, natural gas volatility), he remains bullish on precious metals, base metals, and select companies demonstrating strong relative strength and positive technical patterns. His emphasis on a disciplined, data-driven approach, focusing on identifying and capitalizing on emerging trends, provides actionable insights for investors navigating the current market landscape.