Marape says PNG would stay neutral in any potential Australia-China conflict | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Mutual Defense Treaty: A formal agreement between two or more nations to support each other in case of an attack.
• Status of Force Agreement (SOFA): An agreement between a host country and a foreign nation stationing military forces in that country, defining the legal status of those forces.
• Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA): A broader agreement outlining cooperation in defense matters, including training, exercises, and intelligence sharing.
• Interoperability: The ability of different military forces or systems to operate together effectively.
• Sovereignty: The full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any outside interference.
• Capacity Building: The process of developing and strengthening the skills, instincts, abilities, processes, and resources that organizations and communities need to survive, adapt, and thrive.
• Peace Time Construct: An agreement or framework designed to maintain peace, rather than to initiate or prepare for war.
• Common Danger: A shared threat or peril that multiple parties agree to face together.
• Youthful Population: A demographic characteristic indicating a large proportion of young people, often seen as a potential source of military recruits.
• Land, Sea, Air Capacities: The capabilities of a defense force across different operational domains.
• Cross-border raids: Incursions by armed groups or individuals across international borders.
• PNG-Indonesia border: The land boundary between Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, particularly sensitive due to the West Papua issue.

Rationale and Evolution of the Mutual Defense Treaty

Prime Minister Morape of Papua New Guinea (PNG) characterized the new Mutual Defense Treaty with Australia as a "natural progress" stemming from existing defense agreements. He highlighted a historical trajectory:

• 1977: Signing of a Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) two years after PNG's independence.
• 2013: Signing of a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA). The current treaty is seen as a logical next step, acknowledging the shared history (PNG was part of Australian sovereignty until September 16, 1975) and numerous similarities between the two nations.

Potential Integration of PNG Personnel into the Australian Defence Force (ADF)

The treaty opens the possibility for PNG personnel to be incorporated into the Australian military:

• Scale: "As many as 10,000 PNG troops could be incorporated into the Australian army," with potential for "even more than that 10,000 number" depending on the treaty's implementation.
• Recruitment: PNG possesses a "youthful population," many of whom complete Grade 12, making them potential recruits for the ADF, subject to due processes.
• Command Structure: These enlisted personnel would be "Australian defense force personnels," reporting directly to the ADF command, not the PNG Defense Force commander.
• PNG's Internal Defense Goals: Concurrently, PNG aims to build its own robust defense force of "7,000 men," strengthening its "land, sea, and air capacities."

China's Reaction and PNG's Transparent Diplomacy

Prime Minister Morape explicitly stated that Chinese officials made "not at all" any direct or indirect threats regarding the treaty. He commended China for showing "full respect to our sovereign interests" and understanding PNG's historical ties with Australia. PNG has maintained transparency with "not just Chinese but all nations" with which it has foreign or security relationships.

Benefits for PNG and the Treaty's Purpose

PNG's interests in the treaty are primarily derived from the "range of spin-offs" it provides, extending beyond basic military provisions:

• Capacity Building: The treaty is expected to significantly contribute to the "capacity built of our own defense force," encompassing "military hardwares" and "military softwares."
• Purpose: PM Morape emphasized that "the construct of this treaty is a construct in peace time for peace. This is not a construct to create war. It is rather a construct to establish peace."
• Stance on China: Despite Australia's strategic review focusing on China's militarization, PM Morape clarified, "I don't necessarily see China as enemy. China is a good relationship nation even with Australia, with PNG we trade with China, we do business with China," advocating against an "alarmist approach."

Sovereignty and Commitment to Conflict

A key aspect of the treaty, as articulated by PM Morape, is the preservation of PNG's sovereignty in decisions regarding conflict:

• Decision-Making: While the treaty addresses "common danger," it includes provisions for "PNG Defense Force Commander and Australia Defense Force Commander to engage in making critical military decisions at that point in time" if an attack occurs.
• Autonomy: This implies PNG is "not actually necessarily committing to join a conflict with China that Australia was involved in." PM Morape stated there is a "high possibility" PNG could decide not to be involved, as "PNG has a sovereign in itself."
• Mutual Respect: The treaty was constructed "within the fullest ambit of respecting sovereignties in making their own calls." He drew a parallel, stating PNG would not expect Australia to "drop everything else and run to us" if PNG were in conflict, highlighting the role of "consultations" and "engagement" before a final decision by defense force commanders.

ADF Bases in PNG and Interoperability

The focus of the treaty regarding military presence is on strengthening PNG's own forces and fostering interoperability, rather than establishing permanent ADF bases:

• PNG-led Defense: "It will be PNG troops in PNG. We're building our own PNG Defense Force," with "work conditions on par with Australian Defense Force."
• Interoperability: The arrangement facilitates "PNG defense [using] Australian facilities" and "Australian defense [using] PNG defense force facilities."
• ADF Bases: Regarding "actual ADF bases in PNG," PM Morape stated, "Not that it states. Not that it states possibly in the future. Possibly." However, PNG's immediate interest, well-known to Australia, is to "build 7,000 men defense force that includes new battalians, our sea wing, our airwing, our land wing as well as technology."
• Ongoing Dialogue: Discussions about potential base locations are part of an "ongoing annual dialogue between our defense ministers and our civil servants and our forces."

PNG-Indonesia Border and ADF Involvement

The treaty's implications for the sensitive PNG-Indonesia border were also addressed:

• Cross-border Raids: Regarding Australian assistance for "cross-border raids between West Papua and Papua New Guinea," PM Morape indicated, "Not so much. We have a healthy dialogue with Indonesia."
• Indonesian Consultation: The treaty was not discussed with Indonesia prior to signing, as it was a bilateral matter between PNG and Australia. However, PNG will inform Indonesia and other nations of the "finer details." PM Morape expressed certainty that "Indonesia will not be offended. They clearly understand where our need is," noting the "800 kilometers of land borders" shared with Indonesia.
• ADF Presence: When pressed on the possibility of ADF presence near the "PNG Indonesia border," PM Morape confirmed that "in terms of the operations with PNG will be in PNG as much as PNG will be in Australia and whether it's in the border or in PNG is PNG side Australia will be there also."
• Indonesian Concerns: While acknowledging the "very sensitive border," PM Morape stated, "I can't speak for Indonesia" regarding their potential concerns. These matters will be part of the "ongoing dialogue with Indonesia," as they are "valid partners."

Conclusion

The Mutual Defense Treaty between Papua New Guinea and Australia is presented by Prime Minister Morape as a logical and beneficial progression of long-standing defense ties. Its primary aim for PNG is to enhance its own defense capabilities through capacity building, access to military hardware and software, and interoperability with the ADF. While the treaty allows for potential integration of PNG personnel into the ADF and shared use of facilities, PNG firmly maintains its sovereign right to make independent decisions regarding involvement in conflicts. The treaty is framed as a "construct in peace time for peace," not war, and PNG does not view China as an adversary. The potential for ADF presence near the PNG-Indonesia border is acknowledged as part of the facility-sharing arrangements, with ongoing diplomatic engagement planned with Indonesia to address any concerns regarding this sensitive area. Ultimately, PNG's core focus remains on building a strong, independent 7,000-man defense force.