Manlio Graziano: 'Europe still needs the US but they know they cannot trust Americans anymore'

Key Concepts

• Hegemony: The dominance of one state over others; the speaker argues the U.S. is losing its ability to control global outcomes.
• Pivot to Asia: A long-term U.S. strategic shift (starting under Jimmy Carter) away from the Mediterranean and Europe toward the Pacific.
• Narrative of War: The combination of psychological fear (the need for protection) and propaganda (noble justifications) used to mobilize populations for conflict.
• Strategic Confusion: The lack of a coherent, unified foreign policy within the U.S. administration, described as a "chicken without a head."
• Minsk Agreements: Diplomatic efforts by France and Germany to contain the conflict in Ukraine following the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

1. The Decline of U.S. Hegemony

Manlio Graziano argues that while the United States remains the world's most powerful military force, it has ceased to be a true "hegemon."

• Definition of Hegemony: A hegemon must be able to control global situations. Graziano contends the U.S. currently creates "disorder" rather than stability.
• Historical Context: The decline began as early as 1971, when Richard Nixon acknowledged that the U.S. could no longer rule the world alone, necessitating a reliance on allies. This shift was underscored by the U.S. failure to win a "small war" against guerrilla forces in Vietnam, contrasting with its success in WWII.
• Current State: The U.S. is described as having "nuisance power"—the ability to cause massive disruption (e.g., tariffs, military interventions) without having a clear, long-term strategy.

2. Strategic Confusion and the "Headless Chicken" Analogy

The interview highlights a contradiction in U.S. foreign policy:

• The Pivot Paradox: Despite a decades-long strategy to pivot toward Asia, the U.S. has recently diverted resources (such as the amphibious warship USS Tripoli) away from Japan to the Persian Gulf.
• Internal Disarray: Graziano suggests the U.S. administration is suffering from internal fragmentation, where different factions pursue conflicting directions, leading to a lack of coherent leadership.

3. Europe’s Changing Relationship with the U.S.

The discussion addresses the growing friction between the U.S. and its European allies:

• The "Smash and Ask" Dynamic: Graziano criticizes the U.S. for initiating conflicts (like the war with Iran) without consulting allies, then demanding those same allies pay for the consequences or handle the security burden (e.g., protecting the Strait of Hormuz).
• European Autonomy: There is a nascent process of Europe "finding its feet." Examples include Italy, France, and Spain resisting U.S. requests regarding military base access.
• Trust Deficit: European leaders are increasingly aware that they cannot rely on the U.S. for protection, a trend that predates Donald Trump and extends back to the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia.

4. The Evolution of War in Europe

• The Turning Point: The 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine are identified as the catalysts for Europe’s realization that the Cold War-era security guarantee—based on a division of influence between the U.S. and Russia—is dead.
• The "Peace" Illusion: Europeans largely ignored the conflict between 2014 and 2022, relying on the Minsk Agreements to maintain a status quo. The 2022 invasion shattered the belief that Russia would not engage in large-scale conventional warfare.

5. Methodology: How Nations Go to War

Graziano explains the framework of how states mobilize for war through a two-part narrative:

1. Psychological Fear: The innate human desire for protection when a threat is perceived.
2. Propaganda: The mechanism that provides "noble motivations" to justify the conflict.

• Synthesis: Graziano argues that fear alone or propaganda alone is insufficient; the combination of the two creates a powerful, effective narrative that drives public support for war.

Conclusion

The main takeaway is that the global order is in a state of flux. The United States, while still militarily potent, is suffering from a lack of strategic direction and a declining ability to lead its allies. Europe is forced to confront a new reality where it can no longer rely on U.S. protection, necessitating a shift toward greater strategic autonomy. The "narrative of war" remains a critical tool used by powers to manipulate public sentiment, making it essential to understand the psychological and propagandistic components of modern conflict.