Mali faces worsening jihadist violence amid fears of regional spillover • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Jihadism in Mali: The growing influence and actions of extremist groups in Mali.
• JNIM (Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin): An Al-Qaeda-linked group operating in Mali.
• Fuel Blockade: JNIM's tactic of restricting fuel supply to cripple the Malian economy and government.
• Junta: The ruling military government in Mali.
• Alliance of Sahelian States (AES): A confederation including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• Wagner Group/Africa Corps: Russian paramilitary forces partnered with the Malian junta.
• Sovereignty: Mali's prioritization of self-determination in its foreign and security policy choices.
• Human Rights Abuses: Violations of international humanitarian law, particularly in rural areas.

Current Crisis in Mali: Jihadism and Economic Strangulation

The situation in Mali is characterized by an escalating jihadist threat, with the ruling junta facing an "existential threat." Recent events include the kidnapping of five Indian nationals and a prolonged fuel blockade imposed by JNIM (Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin), an Al-Qaeda-linked group. This blockade has had severe repercussions on the Malian economy and daily life.

Impact of the Fuel Blockade:

• Economic Strangulation: The blockade is severely impacting the Malian economy.
• Government Response: The government has been forced to close schools, limit electricity supply, and halt harvesting in several regions.
• International Impact: Swiss transport giant MSC has suspended shipments to Mali, and France's foreign ministry has advised its nationals to leave the country.
• Urban Impact:
  • Secondary cities like Ségou and Mopti have been significantly affected. Mopti has been without electricity for over a month, and fuel is not reaching these towns.
  • Bamako, the capital, remains under blockade, with residents enduring long queues for limited fuel supplies.
  • While some military-escorted convoys with aerial support have managed to enter Bamako recently, the city's estimated daily requirement of 200-300 gas tankers is not being met.

JNIM's Aims and the Junta's Stability

There is ongoing debate among observers regarding JNIM's ultimate objectives.

• Debate on Objectives: The primary question is whether JNIM aims to capture Bamako and control the country, or simply to topple the current government.
• Expert Perspective (Adam Sander): Adam Sander, an expert on the Sahel from the University of Bayreuth, suggests that JNIM's desire to take over Bamako may not match their current capacity. He believes they are a pragmatic group and likely aim to topple the government, potentially participating in subsequent governance initiatives.
• Junta's Vulnerability: The junta's ability to remain in power is contingent on the support it can secure, particularly from Russia. Russia's provision of aerial support is deemed crucial for maintaining operations in Bamako.
• Internal Divisions: The Malian military is reportedly highly divided, evidenced by recent arrests of senior officials. These divisions are likely to be exacerbated if the junta fails to improve security.

International Alliances and Support

Mali's geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly.

• Exit from ECOWAS: Mali has left the West African community (ECOWAS).
• Alliance of Sahelian States (AES): Mali is allied with Burkina Faso and Niger within the AES.
• Limited Capacity of AES Allies: Despite the AES alliance, Burkina Faso and Niger are facing their own severe security challenges and insurgent attacks. It is unclear if they possess the capacity to provide Mali with the substantial support it requires.
• Shift from Western Allies: Following a coup four years ago, Mali distanced itself from Western allies, notably France, and partnered with Russian paramilitaries.
• Effectiveness of Russian Paramilitaries (Africa Corps):
  • Urban Deterrence: Evidence suggests that Africa Corps has been effective in providing a deterrent force against jihadist attacks in cities like Ségou, Mopti, Ansongo, Gao, and Timbuktu.
  • Rural Ineffectiveness: In rural areas, where insurgents are highly mobile, there has not been a strong positive effect. Instead, conflict dynamics have been exacerbated, leading to increased human rights abuses and a disregard for international humanitarian law.

The Strategic Shift: Sovereignty vs. Security Cooperation

Mali's decision to pivot away from Western partnerships towards Russian involvement is framed as a prioritization of sovereignty.

• Prioritizing Sovereignty: Malians chose to prioritize their understanding of sovereignty, leading to a diversification of security partnerships.
• Deteriorating Security Situation: The security situation in Mali has undeniably worsened since the shift away from French and EU cooperation.
• Effectiveness of Past Cooperation: While acknowledging the negative turn in the current security landscape, it is also noted that France was not solely responsible for maintaining Mali's stability in the past.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The situation in Mali is dire, marked by a severe jihadist threat and an crippling economic blockade by JNIM. The ruling junta faces internal divisions and relies heavily on Russian support, which has shown mixed results, being effective in urban centers but exacerbating conflict in rural areas. Mali's strategic shift towards prioritizing sovereignty has led to a deterioration of its security situation, with limited capacity from its AES allies to offer substantial assistance. The ongoing crisis highlights the complex interplay of internal governance, regional dynamics, and international security partnerships in the Sahel.