Mali faces 'very high risk' of new coup d'état, analyst says, amid jihadist insurgence

Key Concepts

• JNIM (Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin): A major jihadist militant group operating in the Sahel with ambitions to impose Sharia law.
• FLA (Forces for the Liberation of Azawad): A Tuareg-led rebel group primarily focused on securing control over northern Mali.
• Operation Barkhane: The former French-led counter-terrorism mission in the Sahel, terminated by the Malian government in 2022.
• Wagner Group: Russian private military contractors brought in by the Malian junta to replace French and UN forces.
• ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance): Technical military capabilities used for gathering battlefield data.
• Strategic Stalemate: A condition where neither the government nor the insurgents can achieve a decisive military victory.

1. Current Security Situation and Strategic Initiative

Michael Shurkin identifies that the Malian government is currently "on the back foot," having lost the strategic initiative to both the JNIM jihadists and the Tuareg-led rebels.

• The Initiative: The insurgents dictate the pace and location of conflicts, forcing the Malian military into a reactive posture.
• Geographic Challenges: Mali is a vast country; northern Mali alone is comparable to the size of Texas but lacks adequate infrastructure, making troop movement and reinforcement logistically difficult.
• Instability Risk: Shurkin warns of a high risk of a military coup. Historically, when the Malian military suffers significant battlefield defeats, internal frustration often leads to attempts to overthrow the current leadership.

2. Strategic Miscalculations by the Malian Junta

Shurkin highlights two primary strategic errors made by the government under General Goïta:

• Replacing French Forces with Russian Mercenaries:
  • The Rationale: The junta believed the French were "playing a double game" and acting as an obstacle to victory. They sought a partner who would not "lecture" them on human rights and would be willing to use brutal, "no-gloves" tactics.
  • The Reality: The Russian force is smaller and lacks the advanced ISR, precision strike capabilities, and air support that the French provided. Furthermore, the presence of Russian mercenaries has been linked to increased human rights violations, which has alienated local populations—particularly the Fulani community—and driven them toward supporting jihadist groups.
• Expanding the Conflict Front:
  • The Error: The government abandoned the French-brokered peace process with northern rebels to pursue an open war.
  • The Consequence: By attacking the Tuareg/Arab groups in the north while simultaneously fighting JNIM and the Islamic State, the government has overextended its limited resources. Shurkin compares the seizure of Kidal in November 2023 to "Napoleon seizing Moscow"—a tactical gain that resulted in a strategic disaster by making the military more vulnerable.

3. The Role of Russia and Future Outlook

• Russian Dilemma: Moscow faces a trade-off between maintaining political solidarity with the Malian junta and the reality of taking losses for limited strategic gain. Given Russia's commitments elsewhere, they lack the capacity to significantly reinforce their presence in Mali.
• The "Rump State" Scenario: Shurkin predicts that unless the military situation changes drastically, the territory controlled by the Malian government will continue to shrink. He envisions a future where the government is increasingly confined to a "rump" area around Bamako, leading to greater instability and misery for the population.
• Potential for Negotiation: The northern rebels have expressed a desire for the Russians to leave, which Shurkin notes could theoretically serve as a bargaining chip for the Malian government, though he remains skeptical of a peaceful resolution.

4. Notable Quotes

• "If you're frustrated by how poorly [the French] appear to be doing, there's no reason to expect that a smaller Russian force with less capabilities would actually do any better." — Michael Shurkin, regarding the strategic folly of replacing French forces.
• "[The seizure of Kidal] is like when Napoleon seized Moscow. Yeah, very good, but what's it really going to do for you strategically?" — Michael Shurkin, on the Malian military's tactical overreach.

Synthesis

The situation in Mali is characterized by a series of failed strategic pivots. By alienating international partners and choosing to fight a multi-front war against both jihadists and northern rebels, the Malian government has created a security vacuum. The reliance on Russian mercenaries has failed to provide the promised military superiority and has instead exacerbated human rights issues and regional instability. The outlook remains grim, with the state facing potential internal collapse via coups and a shrinking territorial footprint as insurgent groups maintain the upper hand.