Mali Crisis: Fuel Blockade & Rising Insecurity

Key Concepts

• Jihadist Threat in Mali: The escalating southward movement of jihadist groups, strangulating the capital Bamako through a fuel blockade, leading to severe shortages and power cuts.
• Counterterrorism Failures: The ineffectiveness of past counterterrorism operations by France, the UN, the African Union, and Russian entities (Wagner, Africa Corps).
• Turkish Intervention: Mali's current pursuit of Turkish drones and defense equipment as a potential solution against jihadists.
• Regional Instability: The potential for a jihadist-influenced administration in Bamako to cause shockwaves across the Sahel region, particularly impacting ECOWAS states and coastal West African nations.
• Mali's Political Landscape: The likelihood of a collapse of the current junta, leading to a hybrid regime with a stronger jihadist slant, and the challenge of ensuring pragmatic politics and security.
• Root Causes of Instability: The underlying issues of poverty, inequality, and organized crime that have not been addressed by previous counterinsurgency efforts.
• Mali's Search for Partners: Mali's desperate attempts to find new international partners for military and political support, including outreach to the UK.
• Future Scenarios: The possibility of elite bargaining and internal political solutions, alongside potential junta collapse, fragmentation, and increased uncertainty.
• Accommodation: The eventual emergence of some form of accommodation between the junta and politicians outside of junta control.

Assessment of the Jihadist Threat in Mali

Alex Vines describes the threat to Bamako as "incredibly serious." Jihadist groups have advanced southward, effectively "strangulating" the capital through a fuel blockade. This has resulted in "extreme shortages" and constant power cuts. While the jihadists, estimated to be 4,000-6,000 strong, are not capable of a direct takeover of Bamako like the Taliban in Kabul, their objective appears to be to "provoke a collapse of the military junta" and pave the way for a more amenable hybrid regime.

Failures of Counterterrorism Operations and New Partnerships

The current crisis highlights the failure of numerous counterterrorism efforts. Vines states that "France didn't succeed. The UN didn't succeed. The regional body and African Union didn't succeed. The Russians both through Vagnner and now Africa Corps have failed." In this context, Mali is now looking to Turkey for assistance. A significant Turkish defense fair, "Bamako 25," is opening in Bamako, and the junta appears to be seeking "particularly Turkish drones" to combat jihadists and protect convoys. Vines expresses a sense of desperation regarding this approach, stating, "it all feels rather desperate to me."

Broader Implications for Mali's Stability and Economy

The fuel shortages and price spikes are paralyzing Mali. A jihadist-oriented administration in Bamako would have "shock waves across the region," particularly impacting other ECOWAS states like Burkina Faso and Niger, which are already struggling with insurgency. There is also concern about "spill over to coastal states" such as Benin, Togo, and Ghana. Vines anticipates the "most likely scenario" to be a "collapse of the junta in Bamako" and the emergence of a hybrid regime with a stronger "jihadi focused slant." The primary challenge will be to ensure "pragmatic politics prevails" and to improve security, as Mali has suffered from insecurity for "about two decades" with the situation "just worsening by the day."

Mali's Shift Towards Russian Support and Break with Western Partners

Vines suggests that the junta's shift towards Russian support and its break with traditional Western partners like France was driven by a search for equipment and expertise for counterinsurgency. However, each attempt has failed because it has not addressed the "root causes of Mali, which is about poverty, it's about inequality, it's about combating organized crime." Turkey is merely the latest in a series of countries Mali has approached. Vines recounts an instance where a Malian envoy visited the United Kingdom, suggesting the UK as a partner due to its history of combating insurgency and its own experience with a "divorce" from ECOWAS, mirroring Mali's situation. This indicates Mali's "desperate" search for alternative partners.

Future Options for Mali: Safety, Security, and Isolation

Vines believes that the solutions for restoring safety and security lie in "elite bargaining and politics inside Mali." He notes the presence of "plenty of disgruntled individuals and politicians" who might advocate for a different course. In the short term, the current junta could collapse, leading to "fragmentation." This could be followed by another junta attempting to cling to power, potentially resulting in a period of "increased uncertainty and then yet another collapse." While acknowledging the speculative nature of these predictions, Vines concludes that Mali is likely heading towards "some sort of accommodation" between the junta and politicians in Bamako and other major cities that remain outside of junta control.