Malaysia hands ASEAN baton over to the Philippines at the end of 47th summit

Key Concepts

• ASEAN Chairmanship Transition: Malaysia hands over the ASEAN chairmanship to the Philippines, effective January 1st.
• Philippine Priorities (2026): Strengthening regional security, enhancing economic cooperation, broadening engagement with dialogue partners (US, China, Japan, India), addressing regional concerns (Myanmar, Thai-Cambodian border), and navigating economic uncertainties.
• Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea: A primary goal for the Philippines is to conclude an effective and legally binding CoC with China, a negotiation ongoing for over two decades.
• ASEAN Centrality: The Philippines aims to maintain ASEAN as the primary platform for regional dialogue, preventing dominance by major external powers.
• ASEAN Power Grid: A potential project to integrate the region's power needs, aligning with the Philippines' focus on practical and measurable initiatives.
• Challenges for Philippine Chairmanship: South China Sea developments, the situation in Myanmar, threats to regional peace and maritime security, climate change, economic volatility, and maintaining ASEAN centrality amidst great power competition.
• Consensus Building vs. National Interests: The role of the ASEAN chair is traditionally to build consensus, which may lead to the Philippines being more restrained in pushing its own national interests, particularly concerning the South China Sea.
• CoC Negotiation Timeline: A commitment was made in 2023 to conclude the CoC within three years (by 2026), though experts express skepticism due to ongoing complexities and geopolitical shifts.
• Economic Resilience: A potential area for tangible progress, focusing on strengthening ASEAN's collective economic interests and ensuring its viability as a trading bloc amidst global economic challenges.

ASEAN Chairmanship: Philippines Takes the Helm

Malaysia officially passed the baton of the ASEAN chairmanship to the Philippines during a ceremony in Kuala Lumpur, with Manila set to assume the role on January 1st. This transition signifies the Philippines' responsibility to host various bloc meetings and steer regional discussions for the upcoming year.

Philippine Priorities for 2026

The Philippines' agenda for its chairmanship in 2026 is characterized by a focus on continuity, mirroring its existing goals. Key priorities include:

• Strengthening Regional Security: Enhancing the collective security posture of ASEAN member states.
• Enhancing Economic Cooperation: Fostering greater economic integration and collaboration among member nations.
• Broadening Engagement: Deepening dialogue and partnerships with key external players such as the United States, China, Japan, and India.
• Addressing Regional Concerns: Tackling pressing issues like the ongoing problems in Myanmar and the border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia.
• Navigating Economic Uncertainties: Developing strategies to mitigate the impact of global economic volatility on the region.

A primary and ambitious goal for the Philippines is the conclusion of an effective and legally binding Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea with China. This negotiation has been ongoing for over two decades. The transcript highlights that China has not accepted the 2016 arbitral findings, which were considered a triumph for the Philippines as they invalidated China's historical claims in the South China Sea. The path to a final signing of the CoC is anticipated to be challenging, requiring not only China's agreement but also the backing of all 11 ASEAN members.

Potential Initiatives and Challenges

While the CoC presents a significant hurdle, the Philippines' economic goals within the region are seen as potentially easier to navigate. One project under consideration is an ASEAN Power Grid, a regional initiative aimed at integrating the power needs of member states. This project aligns with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s stated focus on hosting ASEAN in 2026 with practical, inclusive, and measurable initiatives.

However, the Philippine chairmanship faces several major obstacles beyond the CoC negotiations:

• South China Sea Developments: The disputed waters are a critical trade route and a rich source of natural resources. Ensuring their accessibility and openness at all times is paramount.
• Situation in Myanmar: The ongoing political and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar remains a significant regional concern.
• Threats to Regional Peace and Maritime Security: Maintaining stability and security in the region is a constant challenge.
• Climate Change and Economic Volatility: The far-reaching impacts of climate change and global economic instability pose significant threats.
• Maintaining ASEAN Centrality: A key goal for the Philippines is to ensure ASEAN remains the primary platform for dialogue, preventing it from being dominated by external major powers like the US and China, who are increasingly asserting their influence in the region.

Expert Perspectives on the Philippine Chairmanship

Professor Areez Khan, a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, offered insights into the dynamics of the Philippine chairmanship. He noted that traditionally, ASEAN chairs do not prioritize their own national interests but rather focus on consensus-building among all member states. While the Philippines might be inclined to push for initiatives like the CoC, its role as chair may necessitate a more restrained approach.

Khan suggested that the Philippines might learn from past experiences, such as the 2012 incident where ASEAN failed to issue a chairman's statement due to disagreements. The lesson learned is that a chair's job is not to solely push its own interests, as this could set a precedent for other member states to do the same, potentially undermining ASEAN's collective interests.

Regarding the CoC, the Philippine Foreign Secretary had previously expressed a commitment to concluding it by 2026. However, Khan indicated that this timeline might be aspirational, given the complexities and the evolving geopolitical and economic landscape. He noted that the region is more challenged now than when the commitment was made in 2023.

Focus on Economic Resilience

When asked about potential areas for tangible progress, Khan pointed to strengthening ASEAN's economic resilience. He described this as the "lowest hanging fruit," emphasizing the need for ASEAN to act in concert to defend its collective economic interests amidst increasing global economic challenges, including tariffs and other geopolitical economic factors. The goal would be to ensure ASEAN remains a viable trading bloc.

Conclusion

The Philippines' upcoming ASEAN chairmanship presents both opportunities and significant challenges. While the nation aims to advance key regional priorities, including the crucial CoC in the South China Sea, it must also navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and prioritize consensus-building. The focus on economic resilience offers a promising avenue for tangible progress, aiming to bolster ASEAN's collective economic strength in an increasingly uncertain global environment. The success of the Philippine chairmanship will hinge on its ability to balance national aspirations with the broader interests of the ASEAN bloc.