Maduro describes phone call with Trump as ‘respectful and cordial’, as US raises pressure | DW News

Key Concepts

• US Military Buildup in the Caribbean: Deployment of US forces near Venezuela.
• "Rattle the Saber": A metaphor for displaying military strength to intimidate an opponent.
• Narco-Terrorist Organization: A government described as being involved in drug trafficking and terrorism.
• Regime Change: The objective of removing a current leader or government.
• Boat Strikes: Military actions involving missiles targeting vessels, with allegations of violating international law.
• Violation of International Law/Laws of War: Actions that contravene established legal frameworks governing armed conflict.
• US Military Conduct: Standards and ethical considerations for military operations.
• "On the Back Foot": A position of disadvantage or being forced to defend oneself.
• Escalation (Minor vs. Major): The degree to which military actions might intensify.
• Transshipment Points: Locations where goods, like cocaine, are transferred from one mode of transport to another.
• Clandestine Airstrips/Guerrilla Encampments: Secret runways or bases used by non-state armed groups.
• Chavismo: The political ideology and movement associated with Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
• Repressive Apparatus: The systems and institutions used by a regime to suppress dissent.
• Civil Society: The aggregate of non-governmental organizations and institutions that manifest interests and will of citizens.

Venezuela-US Relations and Potential Military Intervention

Maduro's Account of Trump Call

Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's leader, described his recent phone call with US President Donald Trump as "respectful and cordial." Maduro expressed hope that the call would be a step towards "respectful dialogue." Trump had previously confirmed the call but offered no specific details.

US Military Buildup and Intervention Prospects

The phone call occurred amidst a significant buildup of US military forces in the Caribbean and Trump's warnings that countries involved in the drug trade could face attack. Christopher Zabatini, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, suggests that some form of intervention is likely, though a full-scale invasion is improbable.

• Reasoning against Invasion: An invasion would require a much larger troop deployment than currently stationed off Venezuela's coast. Zabatini believes Trump lacks the "stomach or patience" for "forever wars" or "state-building wars," which would be necessary for an invasion.
• Trump's Initial Strategy: Zabatini posits that Trump's initial objective, starting 20 weeks prior, was to "show a force" and "rattle the saber" to pressure the Venezuelan military into removing Maduro. Trump had characterized the Venezuelan government as a "narco-terrorist organization," implying a justification for US military strikes.
• Shift to Regime Change: Recent actions and statements, including the discussion of the call with Maduro, indicate that Trump's objective has evolved to "regime change" and the removal of Maduro.
• Effectiveness of Show of Force: The question remains whether a naval show of force is sufficient to trigger military defections or convince Maduro to step down. Zabatini considers it unlikely to provoke the democratic transition aspired to by Trump, his Secretary of State, and the Venezuelan opposition.

Maduro's Strategy and Trump's Position

Maduro's current strategy is perceived as "waiting it out." Zabatini argues that mounting pressure on the US, both domestically and internationally, regarding the military buildup and alleged violations of international law in boat strikes, has put Trump "on the back foot."

• Allegations of War Crime Violations: The transcript mentions 21 boat strikes that resulted in over 80 deaths. These are widely considered violations of international law concerning the laws of war. Furthermore, revelations suggest that after the initial missile strike on a boat, subsequent missiles were used to target survivors, raising serious concerns about violations of US military conduct.
• Republican Scrutiny: These revelations have led Republicans to raise "very serious questions" about US objectives in Venezuela.
• Decreasing Likelihood of Major Attack: Zabatini believes the likelihood of a "full-fledged military attack" is decreasing due to mounting political pressure on Trump. While an invasion is ruled out, missile or drone strikes against selected targets, potentially including Maduro and his inner circle, were always a possibility. However, this likelihood is now diminishing.
• Focus on Military and Drug Sites: If Trump proceeds with military action, it will likely be more focused on "minor" targets, such as individual military installations and drug transshipment sites. Venezuela itself is not a cocaine producer, but the targeted sites would be airstrips and warehouses used for transshipping cocaine from Colombia.

Venezuelan Perspective and International Pressure

Public Expectation of US Action

Oscar Schlanka, a DW correspondent with extensive reporting experience in Venezuela, notes that many Venezuelans expect some form of US strike following Trump's threats. They anticipate this action to pressure Maduro into fleeing or stepping down.

Impact of Airline Suspensions

The suspension of flights to Venezuela by two Panamanian airlines, joining several other carriers, is seen as adding to the pressure on the country. These were the last international airlines operating in Venezuela. Following US warnings, airlines briefly suspended flights, and in retaliation, Venezuelan authorities withdrew their operating licenses. Consequently, Venezuela's airspace is now effectively closed to international commercial flights, with only a few national flights operating.

Potential US Strike Targets

Former US Ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, suggested that US strikes could target clandestine airstrips or guerrilla encampments, actions previously undertaken by the US in conjunction with Colombia. A more severe outcome could involve targeting key figures, such as Maduro himself.

Maduro's Grip on Power

Despite international isolation, Maduro maintains "very evident control" over the nation's military and other institutions established by Chavismo to secure power. This control is considered essential for his continued hold on power, especially given the evidence of election irregularities and the subsequent repression of the opposition.

• Election Integrity: The transcript implies that Maduro's victory in the previous year's elections was questionable, with significant evidence pointing towards Edmundo Gonzalez Muria's win.
• Human Rights Concerns: Maduro remains in power despite "countless reports of crimes against humanity" and "human rights violations." His continued rule is expected to lead to a "hardening of the repressive apparatus of the regime."

Opposition's Potential for Visibility

There is a perceived opening for the opposition to increase its visibility. Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado is organizing a march, and she is expected to play a significant role in shaping a new Venezuela if change occurs. Machado, who was previously blocked from running for office, is expected to receive her Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo next week, though her travel arrangements remain uncertain. The transcript notes that Venezuelans had already voted for Edmundo Gonzalez Ruvia to lead a transition.