Mad Money 10/20/25 | Audio Only

Key Concepts

• Apple (AAPL): Focus on long-term ownership due to beloved products and strong ecosystem, not short-term trading.
• iPhone 17 Series: Highlighted as a "monster hit" with features like the "iPhone Air" and an improved selfie sensor.
• Trade-in Value and Carrier Subsidies: Crucial factors in pricing new iPhones, often overlooked by bearish analysts.
• Bearish Analysts: Criticized for focusing on negative data points (programmer departures, China sales concerns, incremental updates) and ignoring positive fundamentals.
• Siri: Potential for a new Siri launch in March as a catalyst.
• Apple's Future Hardware: Expansion into a touchscreen home hub, cameras, tabletop robotic assistant, and mobile robot.
• Apple's Service Revenue: Expected to continue growing at a double-digit clip.
• Foldable Phone: Anticipated from Apple in September of the following year.
• Apple's Install Base: 1.5 billion iPhones in use, a significant asset.
• Google's Payment to Apple: Over $20 billion annually for default search engine placement.
• AI Default on iPhone: Potential for Apple to earn significant revenue by allowing AI companies to pay for default status.
• Salesforce (CRM): Mentioned as an example of a company where clients are saving money and building revenue with their platform.
• Amazon (AMZN): Suggestion that it may be reaching a bottom, evidenced by rising stock on bad news.
• American Express (AXP): Historically sold off post-earnings, but recently rallied due to phenomenal results.
• AXP Q3 Earnings: Strong performance driven by cardholder spending (up 9%), total revenue (up 11%), and EPS ($4.14 vs. $4.00 estimate).
• Gen Z and Millennial Spending: Significant growth drivers for AXP's consumer services.
• AXP International Business: Strong growth in card services (up 13%).
• AXP Guidance: Raised for the full year.
• AXP Credit Quality: Improving metrics, with low past-due rates and declining net write-off rates.
• AXP Platinum Card Refresh: Highly successful, doubling new account acquisitions.
• Speculative Mania: Concern over extremely high-risk stocks with unjustified valuations.
• Gold vs. Treasuries: A dichotomy in "flight to safety" investments, with gold skyrocketing and treasury yields falling.
• Carly Garner: Technical analyst and commodity strategist providing insights on market trends.
• "Trend is Your Friend" Mantra: Public's embrace of this philosophy, leading to confusion between trading and investing.
• Oaklo (Experimental Nuclear Power Company): Example of a highly speculative stock with no revenue but a large market cap.
• Gold as a Safety Asset: Viewed as a speculative trade rather than a long-term investment by Garner.
• Treasury Yields: Expected to fall further, with the 10-year potentially reaching 3.25% or even lower.
• Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Indicates large speculators are heavily net short on treasuries, suggesting a potential rally.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Retailer showing resilience and making a comeback despite a tough retail environment.
• Ulta CEO Keisha-Ann Steelman: Credited with turning the company around.
• Ulta's Growth Drivers: Improved in-store and online execution, margin expansion, market share gains, and exclusive product launches.
• Ulta's Loyalty Program: 45.8 million members, contributing to over 95% of total sales.
• Ulta's International Expansion: Acquisition of SpaceNK and openings in Mexico and the Middle East.
• Ulta Beauty Marketplace: New online platform for direct brand sales.
• Ulta/Target Partnership: Non-extension of the "store within a store" partnership, potentially beneficial for Ulta.
• Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX): Described as a "meme stock" with potential for short-term gains but speculative.
• LWLG: Company with no revenues, recommended to sell.
• Oatly (OTLY): Salty snack company down 20%, advised not to sell due to being too low.
• NIO: Chinese EV maker, advised to sell if it reaches $10.
• Dot-com Bubble Analogy: Comparison of current speculative stocks to the dot-com era, warning of a potential bust.
• Profit Taking: Emphasized as crucial for realizing actual gains.

Main Topics and Key Points

Apple (AAPL): The "Own It, Don't Trade It" Thesis

• Core Argument: Jim Cramer reiterates his long-standing advice to "own Apple, don't trade it." This is based on Apple's consistent ability to produce "the best there is, the most beloved products on earth."
• Market Impact: Apple's strong performance, boosted by three analyst upgrades (including Ben Resus from Amelius), helped lift the entire stock market. The Dow gained 516 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the NASDAQ climbed 1.37%.
• iPhone 17 Series Success: The recently released iPhone 17 series is described as a "monster hit." Specific features mentioned include the lightweight "iPhone Air" and an auto-adjusting selfie sensor that prevents anyone from being cut off. Cramer claims to have had an "edge" by personally experiencing this feature with CEO Tim Cook.
• Pricing Strategy: Cramer highlights that the effective price increase for the iPhone 17, after accounting for trade-in values and wireless carrier subsidies, was minimal, contrary to bearish analysts who predicted a $200-$300 increase. This was learned from Tim Cook during a meeting in Kentucky.
• Overlooked Factors by Bears:
  • Trade-in Value: Bears failed to factor in the value of customers' existing iPhones.
  • Carrier Subsidies: Wireless carriers are incentivized to offer subsidies to acquire new subscribers, with Apple's phone being a "principal weapon."
  • Consumer Desire for Aesthetics: The "iPhone Air" being "as light as a candy bar" and looking "really cool" is a factor Tim Cook understands and customers desire.
• China Sales: Despite negative sentiment, Cramer sees upside in China sales through calendar year 2026.
• Siri and Future Hardware: Ben Resus of Amelius is quoted predicting a new Siri launch in March and Apple's expansion into a touchscreen home hub, cameras, a tabletop robotic assistant, and a mobile robot for the home.
• Service Revenue Growth: Evercore is cited for its tactical buy call, anticipating continued double-digit growth in Apple's service revenue.
• Foldable Phone: Loop Capital anticipates a foldable iPhone in September of the following year.
• The "Loved Company" Factor: Cramer argues that Apple's status as one of the most loved companies in the world, with 1.5 billion iPhones in use and products that are "adored," cannot be factored into a spreadsheet but is crucial for investors.
• Google's Search Deal: Apple receives over $20 billion annually from Google for being the default search engine. This deal, blessed by a federal judge, suggests Apple could similarly monetize its default AI status.
• AI Monetization Potential: Cramer speculates that Apple could earn tens of billions of dollars by allowing AI companies to pay for default AI status on iPhones, similar to Google's search deal, without incurring significant development costs.
• Critique of Negativity: Cramer attributes the missed rally in Apple to a "cottage industry of people pumping out negative data points," including programmer departures, China concerns, incremental updates, lead time issues, and tariffs, which he labels as "canards" and "unwitting useful idiots for the short sellers."

American Express (AXP): A Post-Earnings Rally Anomaly

• Historical Trend: Typically, American Express stock sells off after reporting earnings, even with excellent numbers. Cramer advises buying on post-earnings weakness.
• July Earnings Example: The stock plunged from $315 to $302 after its July earnings report, presenting a buying opportunity that led to significant gains.
• Recent Earnings Exception: This past Friday, American Express reported "phenomenal" numbers, causing the stock to rally 7.3% in a single session, breaking its usual post-earnings selling trend.
• Key Financial Highlights:
  • Cardholder Spending (Build Business): Up 9% year-over-year, exceeding expectations.
  • Total Revenue: Up 11% year-over-year, also exceeding expectations.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): $4.14, beating the $4.00 estimate, representing 19% growth.
  • US Consumer Services: Spending up 9% (acceleration from 7%), driven by Gen Z (up 39%) and Millennials (up 12%).
  • Commercial Services: Build business up 4% (acceleration from 2%).
  • International Card Services: Strongest growth with build business up 13% (15% in goods and services).
• Raised Full-Year Guidance: The company increased its revenue growth forecast to 9-10% and EPS guidance to $15.20-$15.50.
• Credit Quality:
  • 30+ Day Past Due Loans: Remained stable at 1.3%.
  • Net Write-off Rate: Decreased to 1.9% (down from 2% and 2.1% in prior quarters).
  • Provision for Credit Losses: $1.287 billion, better than the $1.43 billion Wall Street expected.
• CEO Steve Squeri's Insights:
  • Platinum Card Refresh Success: The new Platinum card launch has been the "strongest start they have ever seen," with new account acquisitions running at twice the pre-refresh level.
  • Value Proposition: The company's irresistible rewards program for its "deep pocketed customer base" provides insights into high-net-worth spending habits.
  • Premium Pricing: Customers are willing to pay the $895 annual fee for the new Platinum card for its rewards.
  • Travel Bookings: Record high bookings on Amex Travel.
  • Resy Integration: Platinum cardholders are linking their accounts to Amex's restaurant reservation platform, Resy, with double the spending.
• Competitive Landscape: Despite competition from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Capital One, and Citigroup, the strong Platinum card performance proves American Express has nothing to fear.
• Conclusion: A fantastic quarter with a stock rally, driven by excellent numbers, improving credit metrics, and a highly successful new Platinum card.

Speculative Mania and the Flight to Safety Dichotomy

• Concern over Speculative Stocks: Cramer expresses worry about "incredibly high-risk stocks" trading at "borderline impossible to justify" levels, particularly in areas like nuclear power, quantum computing, space exploration, flying cars, and rare earth minerals. He likens some of these to the "flotsam and jetsam" of the year 2000 dot-com bust.
• Shift in "Safety" Investments:
  • 2020-2021 Mania: During the COVID-era cash handout-fueled rally, investors seeking safety flocked to US Treasuries and largely ignored gold.
  • Current Market: Treasury yields are falling, while the price of gold has "skyrocketed." Even those seeking safety are investing in a "boom and bust commodity."
• Carly Garner's Analysis:
  • "Trend is Your Friend": The public has embraced this mantra, leading to confusion between trading and investing.
  • Oaklo Example: An experimental nuclear power company with no revenue but a $23 billion market cap, highlighting the height of speculation. Garner advises putting such stocks only in discretionary portfolios, not retirement accounts.
  • Gold as a Speculative Trade: Garner views gold as a trend-chasing asset rather than a true safety haven, especially after a 50%+ annual gain.
  • Treasuries vs. Gold Chart: A monthly chart shows gold outperforming 30-year Treasuries, indicating a shift in perceived safety.
  • Historical Parallel (2020 Treasuries): Investors bought 30-year bonds with sub-1% yields, betting on value preservation in a dire world, which Garner calls "pure insanity."
  • Current Gold Rush: Similar to the 2020 treasury rush, people are flocking to gold, taking "excessive risk."
  • Treasury Yields Outlook: Garner anticipates a move in the 10-year Treasury yield from just under 4% to 3.25% and potentially as low as 2-1.5%.
  • COT Report for Treasuries: Large speculators are net short on treasuries by a larger margin than in 2018, suggesting a potential rally in Treasury prices as these short positions unwind.
• Conclusion: Garner believes that when the current speculative bubble bursts, investors will return to long-term Treasuries instead of gold. Cramer hopes she is right, as lower interest rates would benefit the economy and stock market.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA): A Retail Comeback Story

• Resilience in Retail: Ulta Beauty is showing strength and flirting with new highs despite a challenging retail environment.
• Stock Performance: After peaking at nearly $575 early last year, the stock plunged 46% but has since rallied approximately 70% from its lows.
• CEO Keisha-Ann Steelman's Turnaround: Since taking over at the beginning of the year, Steelman has focused on turning the company around.
• Key Financial and Operational Highlights:
  • Mid-March Report: Solid results led to a 13%+ jump in stock price.
  • May Report: Better-than-expected quarter driven by improved in-store/online execution, better promotion management, and margin expansion. Market share gains were reported across mass and prestige brands. Full-year forecast was raised.
  • Late August Report: Another top and bottom line beat with 6.7% same-store sales growth (vs. 2.9% expected), driven by a 3.7% increase in traffic. Gross margin improved by 90 basis points due to stronger pricing.
  • Full-Year Forecast Raised Again: Guidance for same-store sales and EPS was increased.
• Competitive Landscape: The end of the Sephora "store within a store" partnership at Kohl's in late 2023 had previously pressured Ulta's sales. However, with anniversaried numbers, this impact is lessening.
• Strategic Priorities Under Steelman:
  • Broadening Product Assortment: Launched 24 new brands, including exclusive offerings like Rihanna's Fenty Skin.
  • Deepening Customer Engagement: Loyalty program growth of 4% (45.8 million members), with over 95% of sales coming from these members.
  • International Expansion: Acquisition of SpaceNK (UK/Ireland), opening in Mexico, and a planned opening in the Middle East.
  • Ulta Beauty Marketplace: An invite-only online platform allowing brands to sell directly, with Ulta taking an 18% cut.
• Target Partnership Exit: The non-extension of the "store within a store" partnership with Target (ending August next year) is seen as potentially positive, as the royalties were less than 1% of net sales, and the partnership may have cannibalized Ulta's own business due to proximity.
• Consumer Behavior: Despite economic uncertainty and tariffs, consumers are "prioritizing their beauty regimens," viewing beauty and wellness as sources of "comfort and escape."
• Conclusion: New CEO Keisha-Ann Steelman has a strong grasp on the situation, and the stock's pullback presents a buying opportunity.

Important Examples, Case Studies, or Real-World Applications

• Apple's iPhone 17 Series: Discussed as a real-world product launch with specific features and pricing considerations.
• American Express's Platinum Card Refresh: A case study of a successful product relaunch and its impact on customer acquisition and spending.
• Salesforce's Gentics and Agent Force Platform: Mentioned as a product that helps clients save money and build revenue.
• Oaklo: An example of a highly speculative company with no revenue but a significant market capitalization, illustrating the current speculative mania.
• Ulta Beauty's International Expansion: The acquisition of SpaceNK and openings in Mexico and the Middle East demonstrate real-world expansion strategies.
• Ulta Beauty Marketplace: An example of a new online platform strategy for direct-to-consumer sales.
• Ulta's Partnership with Target: A case study of a "store within a store" arrangement and its eventual non-extension.

Step-by-Step Processes, Methodologies, or Frameworks

• Cramer's "Own It, Don't Trade It" Framework: Emphasizes long-term holding of fundamentally strong companies with beloved products, contrasting it with short-term trading which leads to selling at the bottom and buying at the top.
• Analyzing Apple's Value: Cramer's approach involves considering factors beyond traditional financial metrics, such as product desirability, ecosystem strength, and potential future revenue streams (like AI default status).
• Identifying Speculative Mania: Cramer and Carly Garner use historical parallels (dot-com bubble) and chart analysis to identify stocks with parabolic moves and unjustified valuations, warning investors to take profits.
• Ulta's Turnaround Strategy: The discussion outlines Steelman's focus on product assortment, customer loyalty, international expansion, and new platforms as a framework for revitalizing a retail business.
• American Express's Earnings Analysis: The breakdown of AXP's earnings report follows a standard financial analysis approach, examining revenue, EPS, segment performance, guidance, and credit metrics.

Key Arguments or Perspectives Presented

• Cramer's Bullish Stance on Apple: Argues that Apple's product innovation and customer loyalty make it a superior long-term investment, despite bearish sentiment.
• Critique of Bearish Analysts: Cramer contends that many analysts are shortsighted, focusing on negative noise rather than fundamental strengths.
• The Dangers of Speculative Trading: Cramer and Garner warn that chasing parabolic moves in speculative stocks without taking profits is a recipe for disaster, drawing parallels to the dot-com bust.
• The Shift in "Safe Haven" Investments: The observation that gold is now favored over Treasuries for safety is presented as a potentially risky trend.
• Ulta's Resurgence: The argument is made that Ulta's new management and strategic initiatives are driving a genuine turnaround, making it an attractive investment.
• The Importance of Real Earnings: Cramer stresses that while some stocks may appear overvalued, the market ultimately rewards companies with solid earnings and revenue growth.

Notable Quotes or Significant Statements

• "My job is not just to entertain, it's to educate. It's to teach." - Jim Kramer
• "You know why I always say own Apple, don't trade it? Because despite the myriad bears, and there are endless haters, this company always comes up with the best there is, the most beloved products on earth." - Jim Kramer
• "You will never catch these big moves like today. Entirely unexpected. If you're constantly flitting in and out in and out, you will be selling at the bottom and buying at the top." - Jim Kramer
• "All these issues were canards. Most were hatched by people who were unwitting useful idiots for the short sellers." - Jim Kramer (referring to negative Apple narratives)
• "Apple is on a mission to silence its critics." - Melis's Righteous (quoted by Jim Kramer)
• "While the media is obsessed with AI talent departures and focused on AI delays, Apple could have the last laugh as the new Siri could be launched in March." - Melis's Righteous (quoted by Jim Kramer)
• "Apple's one of the most loved companies in the world, but you can't factor that into a spreadsheet." - Jim Kramer
• "The owners of Apple that were able to participate in today's rally were not the traders, they were the owners." - Jim Kramer
• "Typically, whenever American Express reports earnings, the stock tends to sell off. I always tell you that even if the numbers are excellent, Wall Street finds a reason to dislike it." - Jim Kramer
• "The new platinum card has been incredibly well-received. It's so popular that the usual postquarter selling was swamped by a wave of new buyers." - Jim Kramer (on American Express)
• "I'm very worried about the speculative mania that swept up large parts of this market." - Jim Kramer
• "The public has confused trading with investing." - Carly Garner
• "This is a parabola. You know, I hate parabolas." - Jim Kramer (referring to speculative stock charts)
• "The charts interpreted by Carly Garner suggest that when this speculative bubble bursts, investors going to flock long to long-term treasuries again instead of gold." - Jim Kramer
• "I lived through and traded through the year 2000, that great peak to the 1990s bull market and the end of the dotcom bonanza." - Jim Kramer (warning about speculative stocks)
• "You haven't made any real money until you take something off the table." - Jim Kramer

Technical Terms, Concepts, or Specialized Vocabulary

• Bears/Bearish: Investors who believe a stock or market will decline.
• Bulls/Bullish: Investors who believe a stock or market will rise.
• Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ: Major stock market indices.
• Analyst Reports: Research and recommendations published by financial analysts.
• Trade-in Value: The value of an old product when traded in for a new one.
• Subsidies: Financial assistance provided by companies (e.g., wireless carriers) to reduce the cost of a product.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods.
• Canards: False or unfounded beliefs or rumors.
• Short Sellers: Investors who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price.
• Install Base: The total number of a company's products currently in use by customers.
• Gross Margin: The difference between revenue and the cost of goods sold.
• EPS (Earnings Per Share): A company's profit divided by the number of outstanding shares.
• Year-over-Year (YoY): A comparison of a metric from the current period to the same period in the previous year.
• Acceleration: An increase in the rate of growth.
• Guidance: A company's forecast of its future financial performance.
• Credit Metrics: Measures of a company's creditworthiness and the quality of its loans.
• Net Write-off Rate: The percentage of loans that a company has deemed uncollectable.
• Provision for Credit Losses: An amount set aside by a company to cover potential loan defaults.
• Parabolic Move: A rapid and steep increase in a stock's price, often unsustainable.
• Treasury Yields: The interest rate paid on government debt.
• Haven Asset: An investment that is expected to retain or increase its value during times of market turmoil.
• Technical Analyst: An analyst who studies past market data, primarily price and volume, to forecast future price movements.
• Commodity Strategist: An expert who analyzes and advises on the markets for raw materials like gold, oil, and agricultural products.
• Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: A weekly report from the CFTC that shows the positioning of different types of traders in futures markets.
• Net Short Position: When a trader has sold more futures contracts than they have bought, betting on a price decrease.
• Same-Store Sales Growth: A measure of sales growth for stores that have been open for at least a year.
• Basis Points (bps): One-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
• Cannibalization: When a company's new product or service reduces the sales of its existing products or services.
• IPO (Initial Public Offering): The first sale of stock by a private company to the public.

Logical Connections Between Different Sections and Ideas

The video flows from a strong endorsement of Apple as a long-term investment, highlighting its product strength and dismissing bearish narratives, to a detailed analysis of American Express's surprisingly positive earnings report, which breaks its typical post-earnings sell-off pattern. This segues into a broader discussion about market speculation, contrasting the current "mania" with historical events like the dot-com bubble. The analysis of speculative assets is then juxtaposed with the "flight to safety" trend, where gold's rise and Treasury yields' fall are examined through the lens of technical analysis by Carly Garner. Finally, the video shifts to Ulta Beauty, presenting a case study of a retail company successfully executing a turnaround strategy. Throughout these segments, Cramer consistently emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis, long-term investing, and avoiding the pitfalls of short-term trading and speculative bubbles. The common thread is the call for investors to use common sense and focus on tangible value rather than chasing fleeting trends or succumbing to negative sentiment.

Any Data, Research Findings, or Statistics Mentioned

• Market Gains: Dow +516 points, S&P 500 +1.07%, NASDAQ +1.37%.
• Apple's Install Base: 1.5 billion iPhones.
• Google's Payment to Apple: Over $20 billion annually.
• American Express Q3 Earnings:
  • Cardholder spending: +9% YoY.
  • Total revenue: +11% YoY.
  • EPS: $4.14 (vs. $4.00 estimate).
  • Gen Z spending: +39% YoY.
  • Millennial spending: +12% YoY.
  • International card services build business: +13% YoY.
  • Full-year revenue growth guidance: 9-10%.
  • Full-year EPS guidance: $15.20-$15.50.
  • 30+ day past due loans: 1.3%.
  • Net write-off rate: 1.9%.
  • Platinum card new account acquisitions: Twice the pre-refresh level.
• Ulta Beauty:
  • Store network: 1400 stores.
  • Stock rally from lows: ~70%.
  • Same-store sales growth (late August): 6.7% (vs. 2.9% expected).
  • Traffic increase: 3.7% YoY.
  • Gross margin pickup: 90 basis points.
  • Loyalty program members: 45.8 million.
  • Sales from loyalty members: >95%.
  • SpaceNK stores: 83.
• Treasury Yields: 10-year yield under 4%, potential move to 3.25% or lower.
• Large Speculator Net Short Position (Treasuries): 680,000 futures contracts (historical record at the time).

Clear Section Headings for Different Topics

• Apple: The "Own It, Don't Trade It" Thesis
• American Express: A Post-Earnings Rally Anomaly
• Speculative Mania and the Flight to Safety Dichotomy
• Ulta Beauty: A Retail Comeback Story

A Brief Synthesis/Conclusion of the Main Takeaways

The video emphasizes a core investment philosophy: focus on fundamentally strong companies with beloved products like Apple, and avoid the temptation of short-term trading, which often leads to losses. It highlights that positive catalysts, such as new product launches and strong financial results, can be overlooked by negative sentiment and bearish analysts. The discussion on American Express demonstrates how exceptional performance can break historical patterns, rewarding patient investors. A significant portion of the video is dedicated to warning about the dangers of speculative market manias, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble and advising investors to take profits in highly overvalued, parabolic stocks. The analysis of gold versus Treasuries suggests a potential shift in safe-haven preferences, with a technical analyst predicting a return to Treasuries as the speculative bubble bursts. Finally, Ulta Beauty is presented as a successful turnaround story driven by effective management and strategic initiatives, offering a compelling investment case. The overarching message is to prioritize long-term value, be wary of market hype, and utilize common sense to navigate investment decisions.