Macron: 'We believe in multilateralism'ーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Multilateralism: A diplomatic framework involving multiple countries working together to resolve international conflicts, as opposed to unilateral action.
• Strategic Autonomy: The policy goal of reducing European dependence on the US and China for security and economic stability.
• Strict Deterrence: France’s ethical framework for maintaining nuclear capabilities to ensure credibility against "unreasonable" powers.
• De-escalation: The diplomatic process of reducing the intensity of a conflict through negotiation rather than military force.

1. The Iran Conflict and Multilateralism

President Macron advocates for a multilateral approach to the Iran conflict, explicitly rejecting the US and Israeli military strikes as being outside international law.

• Core Argument: Macron argues that resolving disputes through the "law of the strongest" or unilateral force fails to produce lasting solutions. He warns that prolonged bombing campaigns without a political framework for cooperation are counterproductive.
• French Position: France is not participating in the military offensive and was not consulted by the US or Israel. The French government maintains that the only path forward is a return to negotiations to address underlying issues.

2. Nuclear Policy and Deterrence

France has announced plans to increase its nuclear warhead count, a move that has sparked concern among atomic bomb survivors in Japan.

• Justification: Macron frames this as a response to the "unacceptable and irresponsible" nuclear rhetoric from Russia and China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
• Ethical Framework: Macron distinguishes France’s policy as "strict deterrence," intended to maintain credibility against aggressive powers. He emphasizes that France remains committed to diplomatic efforts for arms control.
• European Security: The nuclear pivot is largely driven by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and growing uncertainty regarding the US commitment to European security. France has initiated talks with eight nations (including Germany, Poland, and Britain) to discuss a nuclear deterrence scheme that complements, rather than replaces, NATO.

3. Diplomatic Strategy: Strategic Autonomy

Macron’s broader diplomatic strategy focuses on balancing relationships with global superpowers while asserting European independence.

• Relationship with the US: There is a clear effort to keep the Trump administration at "arms length." Due to shaken trust in US security guarantees, France is taking the initiative to coordinate with other nations that share values of international law.
• Relationship with China: While acknowledging that China’s economy is too significant to ignore, Macron insists that Beijing must comply with international rules and not "throw its weight around."
• Strategic Autonomy: A central pillar of French policy is reducing dependence on both the US and China. This involves strengthening ties with like-minded nations, such as Japan, to create a more balanced global power structure.

4. Methodology and Diplomatic Process

• Negotiation-First Approach: Macron has utilized direct communication channels, holding telephone talks with President Trump, Iranian leadership, and other Middle Eastern heads of state to mitigate tensions.
• Framework for Cooperation: Macron’s methodology rejects the "bombing" approach in favor of establishing a "rigorous framework for cooperation." However, observers note that while he emphasizes negotiation, he has yet to provide a concrete, step-by-step roadmap for achieving a ceasefire in the Iran conflict.

5. Notable Statements

• On Unilateralism: "Nothing would be worse than bombing the region for weeks on end only to leave without reestablishing a framework."
• On Nuclear Credibility: "Reasonable powers must remain credible so as not to leave all the space to unreasonable powers or to those that operate outside any framework."

Synthesis and Conclusion

President Macron’s diplomatic stance is defined by a push for multilateralism and strategic autonomy. Faced with a volatile Middle East and a shifting security landscape in Europe—characterized by Russian aggression and US unpredictability—France is attempting to position itself as a credible, independent actor. By strengthening nuclear deterrence while simultaneously calling for diplomatic de-escalation, Macron seeks to protect European interests without succumbing to the unilateral dictates of the US or the economic dominance of China. The primary takeaway is that France is actively seeking to build a coalition of nations committed to international law to fill the vacuum left by the erosion of traditional US-led alliances.