Macro Measure Combo - December 19, 2025

Market Rebellion Macro Measure & Sector Situation – December 19th, 2025 – Summary

Key Concepts:

• Santa Rally: The tendency for stock prices to rise during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year.
• 50 SMA (Simple Moving Average): A key technical indicator used to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels. Falling below this is seen as a negative signal.
• Inverted Head and Shoulders: A bullish chart pattern suggesting a potential reversal of a downtrend.
• OPEX (Options Expiration): The date when options contracts expire, often leading to increased trading volume and potential market volatility.
• Monkey Wrenching: Unexpected negative events or news that disrupt positive market momentum.
• Seasonality: Recurring patterns in market behavior based on time of year.
• Megacaps: Large-cap companies, specifically referencing the performance of tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.).
• VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market expectations of near-term volatility.

I. Market Overview & Recent Performance

Wayne, host of Market Rebellion’s Macro Measure, delivered this update on December 19th, 2025, acknowledging time constraints and recent market fluctuations. The week began with a negative lean, anticipating potential derailment from events like the Yen situation, Micron’s EPS release, and a Trump speech. However, the market ultimately experienced a positive turnaround on Thursday and Friday, erasing earlier losses. This led to a reassessment of the outlook, shifting from anticipating a “monkey wrench” to a potentially positive finish to the year. The speaker noted the market had consolidated, and while not stellar, the recent performance wasn’t detrimental. The primary question is whether this lackluster fall sets the stage for a strong start to the new year.

II. Technical Analysis & Key Levels (SPY Focus)

The analysis centered on the SPY ETF as a market proxy. Key observations include:

• 50 SMA Importance: Staying above the 50 SMA is crucial; falling below signals potential trouble. The SPY successfully defended this level.
• Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern: The SPY is potentially forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, could trigger a strong rally.
• Support & Resistance: The 682 level is identified as a key resistance point (above the 15 SMA). Breaking above all SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) is seen as a positive sign.
• Pitchfork Bottom: The recent price action resembles a “pitchfork bottom,” a bullish technical formation.
• OPEX & Trump Speech Impact: The recent rally may be partially attributable to relief following the Trump speech and the expiration of options contracts (OPEX), but the speaker cautions against attributing too much to these factors.

III. Sector Performance & Breadth

While overall market breadth wasn’t great, it didn’t deteriorate significantly during the week’s rough patch. Specific sector observations:

• Megacaps: Performance was mixed, but most megacaps are showing signs of improvement. The speaker believes they could lead a market rebound.
• XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund): Showing signs of perking up.
• XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund): Also showing positive momentum.
• XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund): Made a new all-time high.
• XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund): Recovering and showing potential.
• Energy (XLE): Remains a lagging sector, but is holding support.

IV. Individual Megacap Analysis

A detailed look at several megacap stocks:

• Amazon (AMZN): Tracked the overall market, with a potential trade identified earlier in the week.
• Apple (AAPL): Needs to regain momentum and break above the 50 SMA.
• Meta (META): Showing a more promising setup with a potential breakout above the 200 SMA.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Also showing potential for a rebound, testing the declining 50 SMA.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Considered a crucial stock; showing signs of a potential breakout above resistance, with a higher low established. The speaker highlighted Nvidia’s importance due to its weight in the market.
• Tesla (TSLA): Experienced a pop but failed to sustain momentum.
• Netflix (NFLX): Lagging but showing potential for a rebound if it can break through resistance.

V. Sentiment & Seasonality

• AI Survey: Remains strongly bullish, potentially acting as a headwind to further gains (too much optimism).
• VIX: Has fallen back into the 15 range, a potentially positive sign.
• Seasonality: The market typically experiences bullishness before and during major holidays, including the “Santa Rally” (last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year). However, the speaker emphasizes the importance of technical confirmation alongside seasonal patterns. The second year of a president’s term is historically a tougher year for the market.

VI. Key Arguments & Perspectives

Wayne presented a balanced perspective, acknowledging both positive and negative factors. He emphasized the importance of:

• Adaptability: Traders should remain flexible and adapt to changing market conditions rather than being locked into rigid positions.
• Technical Confirmation: Seasonal patterns should be confirmed by technical indicators.
• Caution: While optimistic about a potential rally, he cautioned against complacency and highlighted the potential for unexpected events (like news from Trump) to disrupt the market.
• Focus on Momentum: The speaker’s trading style prioritizes momentum and trend-based strategies.

VII. Notable Quotes

• “All is well that ends well.” – Expressing a more positive outlook after the week’s turnaround.
• “The market loves to confound people.” – Highlighting the unpredictable nature of the market.
• “If you’re not going to work with holding support and you’re not going to work with your trend…then something’s a miss.” – Emphasizing the importance of following technical signals.

VIII. Conclusion

The market has consolidated after a lackluster fall, but the recent positive momentum suggests a potential for a stronger start to the new year. While acknowledging potential risks (OPEX, Trump news, over-optimism), the speaker believes the technical setup is improving, particularly with the potential for an inverted head and shoulders pattern in the SPY and improving performance among megacap stocks. The key takeaway is to remain adaptable, focus on technical confirmation, and be prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios. The speaker expressed hope for a positive finish to the year and a strong start to the next.