LTA to publish new rail reliability indicators, including punctuality

Key Concepts

• Mean Kilometers Between Failure (MKBF): A metric used to measure rail reliability by tracking the average distance trains travel before experiencing a fault lasting more than 5 minutes.
• Teething Period: The initial phase of a new system or infrastructure where issues and adjustments are common as it adapts to operating conditions.
• Punctuality: The measure of how often trains operate and arrive according to their scheduled times.
• Disruptions: Incidents that cause delays or interruptions to train services.

Rail Reliability in Singapore: A Shift in Metrics

Introduction to MKBF and its Limitations

Singapore has historically used the Mean Kilometers Between Failure (MKBF) as its primary indicator for rail reliability since 2016. This metric tracks the average distance trains travel before encountering a fault that lasts longer than five minutes. In the year leading up to September, trains were generally less reliable than the previous year, with the exception of March. Specifically, last year trains traveled 1.98 million mean kilometers before experiencing another fault. Data available up to September this year shows that trains did not perform better than this benchmark, except for March.

However, an industry observer highlighted the limitations of relying solely on this fault-based metric, particularly when new rail lines are introduced. For instance, the Thomson-East Coast line, which began its phased opening in 2020 and is not yet fully operational, experiences a "teething period." This period involves training systems to adapt to operating conditions, leading to a higher frequency of faults. The observer argues that the MKBF number alone does not accurately reflect the performance of new lines compared to older ones due to these inherent differences.

Introduction of New Reliability Indicators

In response to these limitations, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) will now publish three new indicators to provide a more comprehensive view of commuter experience and operational performance:

1. Frequency of trains operating according to schedule: This measures how often trains adhere to their planned timetables.
2. Frequency of trips completed on time: This tracks the proportion of train journeys that are completed within their scheduled duration.
3. Proportion of daily passengers affected by disruptions: This quantifies the impact of service interruptions on the commuting public.

Analysis of September Performance and New Metrics

In September, delays exceeding 30 minutes occurred on the Circle and East-West lines. Despite these disruptions, trains operated and arrived according to schedule more than 99% of the time. Furthermore, less than 1% of daily passengers were affected by these specific delays.

Professor [Name not specified in transcript] stated that these new indicators are designed to focus on the actual passenger experience during their daily commutes. He also noted that these metrics are more precise, enabling operators to pinpoint specific "pain points" within the system. For example, if there's a punctuality issue, potential faults affecting punctuality will need to be identified and rectified. Similarly, if a schedule distance cannot be met, the new indicators will help determine whether the problem is operational or systemic, facilitating targeted improvements to enhance reliability.

International Comparisons and Future Enhancements

Another observer suggested that these additional metrics will allow for better comparisons of Singapore's MRT system with other major metro systems globally. Many Singaporeans have traveled to places like Hong Kong and Japan and often perceive their public transport reliability as superior. The observer emphasized that Singapore's performance is actually quite similar to that of Hong Kong and Japan, but may fall short when compared to systems in Taipei or other Chinese metro networks.

The observer also proposed further enhancements to future indicators. These could include reflecting whether incidents occurred during peak or non-peak travel times and quantifying the inconvenience caused. Such details would provide a more accurate capture of the impact on commuters.

Conclusion

The shift from a sole reliance on MKBF to a multi-indicator approach signifies a move towards a more holistic and passenger-centric understanding of rail reliability in Singapore. While MKBF provides a technical measure of system robustness, the new metrics aim to capture the real-world impact of service performance on commuters, enabling more targeted improvements and facilitating more meaningful international comparisons.