Low voter turnout, protests, crackdowns: Are elections in Africa eroding trust in democracy?

Key Concepts

• Electoral Autocracy: A system where elections are held, but the government does not act as if it is accountable to the people, behaving more like an autocracy.
• Democratic Handover of Power: A transfer of leadership from a ruling party to the opposition through the ballot box.
• Political Continuity: The state of a leader or ruling party remaining in power for extended periods.
• Civic Space: The environment in which citizens can express themselves and participate in public life.
• Electoral Space: The conditions under which elections are conducted, including fairness and freedom of competition.
• Human Rights Concerns: Issues related to the fundamental rights and freedoms of individuals.
• Suppression of Opposition: Actions taken by a government to hinder or prevent opposition parties and individuals from operating freely.
• Disappearances: The unexplained vanishing of individuals, often critics of the government.
• Treason Charges: Legal accusations of attempting to overthrow or betray one's country.
• Benevolent Dictator: A hypothetical ruler who exercises absolute power but uses it for the good of the people.

Summary

This report from DW News Africa examines the state of democracy on the African continent, focusing on recent elections in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, and questioning whether these events indicate a crisis or a deeper structural problem with electoral democracy.

Elections and Political Continuity in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania

The report highlights a trend of political continuity across the three featured countries, where incumbent leaders have retained power through elections, often with significant controversy.

• Cameroon:

  • Paul Biya, the world's oldest serving head of state at 92, has been declared the winner of his eighth term, having been in power since 1982. This marks 43 years of his leadership.
  • His reelection has intensified tensions, with the main opposition leader, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, dismissing the official results as a "sham" and a "fictitious victory."
  • Protests and clashes between demonstrators and security forces have occurred in cities like Douala, fueled by anger over alleged electoral fraud and a desire for change.
  • Young people, in particular, express frustration over unemployment and the lack of peace in parts of the country.
  • Reports indicate dozens of arrests and close to 10 deaths in connection with the protests.
  • Analysts warn that continued political tension could lead to instability.
  • The government has threatened to arrest and prosecute Tchiroma Bakary.

• Ivory Coast:

  • Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, 83, has been reelected for a fourth term, securing nearly 90% of the vote.
  • However, this victory was achieved in an election where his two main rivals, Laurent Gbagbo (barred due to a criminal conviction) and Tidjane Thiam (barred for acquiring French nationality), were prevented from running.
  • Approximately 8.5 million people were registered to vote, but voter turnout was low, with Gbagbo and Thiam urging their supporters to boycott the election.
  • Deadly unrest occurred in the lead-up to the vote, resulting in hundreds of activists being arrested and reports of unexplained disappearances.
  • Despite the controversies, the mood in Abidjan has returned to normal following the provisional results, with some citizens hoping the president will focus on national unity, youth empowerment, and economic development.

• Tanzania:

  • President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who took office in 2021, is contesting her first election. Her party has ruled Tanzania since independence in 1961.
  • The election has been marked by human rights concerns, with allegations of authorities suppressing the political opposition.
  • Challengers to President Hassan were either jailed or barred from standing.
  • Over 37 million people were registered to vote, but low turnout was anticipated.
  • Protests erupted in the commercial capital, Dar es Salaam, on election day.
  • Social media platforms like Jami Forum were banned, and local journalists faced difficulties reporting.
  • Amnesty International reported on missing government critics and opposition members, with some high-profile individuals, such as Humphrey Polepole and TikToker Shadrach Chaula, unaccounted for.
  • The situation attracted international attention when two activists from Kenya and Uganda, observing a trial, reported being abducted, tortured, and sexually abused, allegedly by police officers.
  • The ruling party's dominance is evident, with few individuals willing to speak critically of the government on camera.
  • The opposition party, CHADEMA, has been significantly marginalized, with its presidential candidate, Tundu Lissu, facing treason charges since April, and his deputy arrested.

Analysis of African Democracy

The report features insights from Dr. Tiyelou Odi, a research fellow in democratic resilience, and Kenyan journalist Patrick Gatha, who discuss the broader implications of these elections for democracy in Africa.

• Structural Problems vs. Isolated Incidents: Dr. Odi argues that the issues observed in Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania are not isolated incidents but represent a deeper structural problem with electoral democracy in Africa. He points to incumbents manipulating institutions to their advantage, undermining state institutions, and stifling civic and electoral spaces.
• Performative Elections and Lack of Accountability: Both experts suggest that elections are increasingly becoming performative rituals rather than genuine democratic contests, allowing leaders to avoid real accountability.
• Mixed Picture of Democratic Transitions: While a recent report indicates that between 2020 and 2024, 11 out of 17 multi-party elections resulted in a democratic handover of power (opposition taking control), this does not necessarily equate to robust democracy. Patrick Gatha emphasizes that transitions alone do not guarantee the ability of people to rule themselves or influence government policies. He cites Ivory Coast's civil war transition and Ouattara's consistent high vote percentages as problematic examples.
• Decline in Democratic Hopes: Patrick Gatha notes a decline in democratic hopes since the late 1990s, despite earlier waves of change and democratic transitions in countries like Malawi and Kenya. He observes a steady decline in opportunities for people to express themselves and push for change over the last 10-20 years.
• Focus on Structures, Not Just Faces: Gatha argues that while faces and leaders change, the fundamental structures of power remain unreformed and do not adequately represent the people or allow for their aspirations. Systems are often top-down.
• Military Coups as a Symptom of Failure: The continued possibility of military coups is seen as a problematic indicator of the failure to democratize. Patrick Gatha states that the fact that military coups are still an option illustrates the failure to establish deep-rooted civilian governance systems that would make them unthinkable. He points to the Sahel region (Burkina Faso, Mali) as examples of a return to military coups, but also notes that even in countries with established civilian rule like Kenya, issues of abductions and disappearances persist, similar to Tanzania.
• Disappointment with Civilian Electoral Rule: The rise in support for coup leaders, despite surveys showing a preference for democracy, is attributed to the disappointment with civilian electoral democratic rule. The hopes of the 1990s for popular participation and progress in living standards, freedoms, and human rights have not materialized for many.
• Elections as a Poor Metric for Democracy: Patrick Gatha argues that elections are a poor metric for the health of democracies, as autocracies also hold elections. He believes that popular participation in the period between elections is a more crucial measure of democracy than simply casting a ballot on election day.
• Preference for Democracy Despite Frustration: Despite frustrations, a significant majority of Africans (two-thirds in a survey) still prefer democracy over other systems. This preference stems from the inherent promise of freedom and the ability to pursue one's dreams.
• The Rise of Electoral Autocracies: Dr. Odi highlights the rise of "electoral autocracies," where elections are held, but governments are not accountable. He suggests that if democracy offered more substance and less form, the attraction of "strong men" would diminish.
• The Allure of "Benevolent Dictators": There is a concern about the growing wish for Chinese-style or Singaporean-style autocracies, where people hope for a benevolent dictator to drive progress. However, both experts caution against this, emphasizing the inherent risk of ending up with an oppressive ruler and the difficulty of removing them, contrasting this with the ability to effect change, however messy, in a democracy.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while elections are occurring across Africa, the recent examples from Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania raise serious questions about the health and integrity of democratic processes on the continent. The trend of political continuity, coupled with allegations of electoral manipulation, suppression of opposition, and human rights concerns, suggests that many African democracies are either on life support or are evolving into electoral autocracies. While a preference for democracy persists, there is a growing demand for systems that deliver tangible progress and genuine participation, rather than just the form of elections. The focus needs to shift from simply holding elections to ensuring meaningful popular participation and accountability between polls.