Locals in Cuba are grappling with Trump's assault on their ally Venezuela | 7.30

Cuba, Venezuela, and Greenland: US Foreign Policy Under Trump

Key Concepts:

• US-Cuba Relations: Historically strained, marked by a long-standing trade embargo and current concerns about Cuban involvement in Venezuela.
• US-Venezuela Intervention: Recent US actions aimed at removing Nicolás Maduro from power and gaining access to Venezuelan oil reserves.
• Arctic Strategy: The US interest in Greenland due to its strategic location in the Arctic, particularly in light of melting ice caps and great power competition.
• Transactional Diplomacy: Donald Trump’s negotiating style characterized by making extreme demands to achieve desired outcomes.
• Spheres of Influence: A concept suggesting the division of the world into areas of dominance by major powers, debated in relation to Trump’s foreign policy.

---

I. Situation in Cuba Following US Actions in Venezuela

The situation in Havana, Cuba, is characterized by fear and uncertainty following US actions in Venezuela. There is concern among the Cuban population about potential direct military attack, reminiscent of past conflicts. Cuba’s government strongly condemned the US actions in Venezuela, labeling them as “state terrorism.” President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed demonstrators, asserting Cuba’s sovereignty and rejecting US interference ("No imperialists. This is not your backyard or disputed territory.").

Cuba has reported 32 of its nationals were killed in combat during the Venezuelan strikes, identifying them as members of its armed forces and intelligence agencies. A two-day period of national mourning was observed with flags flown at half-mast. It is widely acknowledged that Cuban personnel provided significant security and intelligence support to the Maduro regime in Venezuela, including protecting Maduro himself and staffing the Venezuelan spy agency.

The question of what Donald Trump will do next regarding Cuba is a major concern. Trump has described Cuba as a “failing nation” and a “disaster” run by “incompetent” leaders.

II. US Policy Towards Cuba: Marco Rubio’s Influence and Potential Targets

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose parents fled Cuba seeking the “American dream,” holds strong views on the Cuban government, characterizing it as an “anti-American communist dictatorship.” While Rubio has voiced concerns about the Cuban government being a “huge problem,” he has remained deliberately vague about specific future US policies. Experts note that Rubio is likely the most vocal advocate within the Trump administration for regime change in Cuba, believing that cutting off Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba could lead to its collapse.

However, William LeoGrande, a Cuba specialist, suggests the US is unlikely to directly strike Cuba, instead focusing on pressuring Venezuela to cut off oil shipments, hoping to destabilize the Cuban economy through a “domino theory” approach.

III. Venezuelan Context and Cuban-Venezuelan Relationship

The recent US intervention in Venezuela, targeting alleged drug trafficking operations, initially felt distant to Cubans. However, the deaths of Cuban nationals during the strikes brought the conflict closer to home, raising fears of escalation.

The close relationship between Cuba and Venezuela, forged by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez, is rooted in a series of trade agreements. Cuba provided Venezuela with medical personnel (doctors, nurses, technicians) and military advisors, while Venezuela supplied Cuba with oil at heavily subsidized prices. This oil lifeline is crucial for Cuba, and its potential disruption is a major source of concern.

IV. Greenland and US Arctic Strategy

The Trump administration has also expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, even raising the possibility of a military option, a statement that has shocked Denmark and other European nations. Matthew Cronig, Vice President of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, believes Trump is serious about Greenland’s strategic importance due to the melting of Arctic ice caps and the resulting increase in great power competition, particularly with China, and the presence of critical minerals.

However, Cronig does not believe Trump would pursue military action against a NATO ally like Denmark, suggesting his rhetoric is a negotiating tactic to secure access or a potential sale. He emphasizes that a military confrontation would jeopardize the NATO alliance. Trump’s negotiating style is described as asking for an extreme outcome to ultimately settle for something less.

Cronig notes that the US has historically acquired territory through purchase (e.g., the Louisiana Purchase) and suggests a negotiated sale of Greenland is a more plausible scenario. He also highlights the importance of considering the views of the Greenlandic people, who have aspirations for independence, and the willingness of Denmark to negotiate military access or collaborate on resource development.

V. Justification for Intervention in Venezuela and Future Prospects

Matthew Cronig justified the US intervention in Venezuela, characterizing Nicolás Maduro as a “bad guy” responsible for widespread problems, including drug trafficking, economic mismanagement, and a refugee crisis. He also pointed to Maduro’s ties to China, Russia, and Iran as a threat to US interests. While acknowledging oil access as a factor, he emphasized that Trump’s motivations were broader, encompassing concerns about drug trafficking and economic stability.

Cronig believes Cuba could be the next target of the Trump administration, citing its long history as an “anti-American dictatorship” and its support for adversaries like China. He referenced Marco Rubio’s statement that government officials in Havana should be concerned, suggesting a potential shift in US policy towards Cuba.

VI. Global Competition and Spheres of Influence

The discussion touched upon the concept of “spheres of influence,” with some observers suggesting Trump’s foreign policy aims to carve up the world into areas of dominance. However, Cronig argued that this interpretation is not reflected in the official US National Security Strategy, which prioritizes the Western Hemisphere but also emphasizes competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region and maintains a global outlook. He asserts that the US remains a global superpower with global interests.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The transcript reveals a complex and evolving US foreign policy under the Trump administration, characterized by a willingness to challenge established norms and pursue unconventional strategies. The focus on Venezuela and Cuba reflects a desire to counter perceived threats in the Western Hemisphere, while the pursuit of Greenland highlights a growing strategic interest in the Arctic. Trump’s “transactional” approach to diplomacy, combined with the influence of figures like Marco Rubio, creates an unpredictable environment with potentially significant implications for international relations. The potential for escalation in Cuba, coupled with the ongoing situation in Venezuela, underscores the need for careful analysis and strategic planning.