LIVE: US arms control official delivers disarmament statement in Geneva

Key Concepts

• New START Treaty: A bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia limiting strategic nuclear warheads, missiles, and bombers. It expired in February 2026.
• Strategic Stability: A condition where nations feel secure enough to avoid actions that could escalate into conflict, particularly nuclear conflict.
• Nuclear Deterrence: Maintaining a military capability strong enough to discourage an adversary from attacking.
• Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): An international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
• ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile – a missile designed to deliver nuclear warheads over long distances.
• Yield-Producing Nuclear Tests: Nuclear explosions designed to test the functionality and power of nuclear weapons.
• Decoupling: A technique used to mask the seismic signature of underground nuclear explosions.
• P5: The five permanent members of the UN Security Council – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• DPRK: Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea).

The Changing Landscape of Nuclear Arms Control

The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5th, 2026, marks the end of a period of unilateral restraint by the United States in nuclear arms control. This development necessitates a new approach to global strategic stability, given the evolving nuclear landscape and the actions of Russia and China. The speaker emphasizes that the treaty’s limitations, coupled with the behavior of other nuclear powers, render its previous framework inadequate.

Disparities in Treaty Coverage and Compliance

A central argument is that New START was inherently unbalanced. While all US deployed nuclear forces were subject to its constraints, only a fraction of Russia’s larger stockpile was covered. Critically, China’s growing nuclear arsenal was entirely excluded from the treaty’s limitations. The speaker states, “exactly zero Chinese nuclear weapons were covered by New Start,” and highlights that China’s arsenal now operates “with no limits, no transparency, no declarations, and no controls.”

Furthermore, Russia has demonstrably violated the spirit and potentially the letter of arms control agreements. Moscow has developed and tested novel nuclear systems – the nuclear-powered Skyfall cruise missile and the Poseidon torpedo – that were not constrained by New START. Recent reports indicate Russia is also developing a nuclear weapon capable of being deployed in Earth’s orbit for anti-satellite purposes, a move that would violate the Outer Space Treaty. The speaker notes Russia’s testing of supercritical nuclear weapons, exceeding moratoria commitments.

China’s Rapid Nuclear Expansion

The most significant shift in the global nuclear balance is China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Initially possessing a relatively small arsenal consistent with its stated deterrence policy, China has leveraged the US-Russian restraint under New START to dramatically increase its capabilities. Concerns that China might double its arsenal existed during the Trump administration, and these concerns have materialized. Evidence of three new ICBM silo fields has been widely reported, yet China continues to deny the extent of its buildup. Projections indicate China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Russia is actively assisting this expansion by providing China with weapons-grade fissile material. The speaker asserts the US is “cleareyed and realistic about the speed, scale, and quality of China's historic military buildup.”

Shifting Alliances and the DPRK

The geopolitical landscape has also changed with Russia’s alignment with North Korea (DPRK). Previously, the P5 shared a common stance against the DPRK’s nuclear program. Now, Moscow has effectively endorsed it, calling it a “closed issue.” This shift further complicates efforts to address nuclear proliferation.

US Response and Future Strategy

The expiration of New START allows the United States to pursue a more comprehensive and robust nuclear strategy. The US will complete its ongoing nuclear modernization programs and retain non-deployed nuclear capacity for potential use. The speaker outlines potential actions including expanding current forces, diversifying capabilities, developing theater-ranged nuclear forces, and adapting extended deterrence.

Regarding nuclear testing, the speaker reveals that the US government is aware of China conducting nuclear explosive tests, including tests with yields in the hundreds of tons, employing “decoupling” techniques to conceal these activities. President Trump previously instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” in response to Russian and Chinese violations of testing moratoria. The US assessment confirms Russia’s failure to maintain its moratorium and identifies China’s concealed testing activities.

The US seeks a new arms control architecture that accounts for all Russian nuclear weapons, including novel systems, and addresses the growth of China’s arsenal. While committed to reducing nuclear weapons, the US will not pursue talks “for the sake of talks” but rather seek “meaningful progress based in concrete actions.” The US will maintain a “robust, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent” and negotiate “from a position of strength.” The speaker emphasizes the need to determine “how much deterrence is enough,” acknowledging this will depend on the success of future multilateral strategic stability discussions.

Call to Action and Conclusion

The speaker concludes by urging CD member states to address this challenge during the 2026 CD session. The US remains committed to verifiable, enforceable, and secure arms control arrangements, but will not remain silent on non-compliance. The ultimate goal is to achieve President Trump’s vision for a new, modernized nuclear treaty that ensures long-term security and stability, preventing domination by any nation and fostering peace through restraint. The speaker acknowledges the process will be difficult but reaffirms the US commitment to securing a strong outcome.