LIVE: President of Finland at Davos

Key Concepts

• Values-Based Realism: A foreign policy approach balancing adherence to core values (democracy, human rights, rule of law) with pragmatic recognition of the need for cooperation with diverse actors, even those with differing values.
• Dignified Foreign Policy: Conducting international relations with respect and acknowledging the historical context and sensitivities of partner nations, particularly those with post-colonial experiences.
• Liberal World Order: The post-World War II international system characterized by multilateral institutions, rule of law, and promotion of democratic values.
• Multilateralism vs. Transactionalism: Multilateralism emphasizes cooperation through international institutions, while transactionalism prioritizes bilateral deals and national interests.
• Rupture: A significant and potentially irreversible shift in the existing global order, as discussed by Mark Carney.
• Strategic Autonomy (European): The EU’s capacity to act independently in the international arena, reducing reliance on external powers.
• Differentiated Integration (EU): A flexible approach to European integration allowing member states to participate at different speeds and levels in various policy areas.

The Erosion of the Liberal World Order and a Path Forward

The discussion centers on the challenges facing the liberal world order and proposes a framework for navigating a changing geopolitical landscape. The core argument is that while the liberal order is under pressure from rising nationalism, power politics, and a shift away from multilateralism, it remains worth defending. However, preserving it requires adapting to the current realities and giving greater agency to countries that feel the existing order was constructed in the West’s image.

Values-Based Realism: A Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy

The speaker advocates for “values-based realism” as a guiding principle for foreign policy. This approach, developed a few years prior, emphasizes staying true to core values – democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law – while acknowledging the necessity of collaborating with countries holding different values to address global challenges like conflict, climate change, and artificial intelligence. This isn’t about compromising values, but recognizing that solutions require broad coalitions. The speaker admits this framework was initially conceived without the current US context in mind, but finds it increasingly relevant in navigating relations with the United States. He frames it as an “instrument” to manage a period of transition, potentially a “rupture” in the global order as suggested by Mark Carney.

The Importance of Dignified Foreign Policy

A key component of navigating this transition is adopting a “dignified foreign policy.” This involves treating partner nations with respect, acknowledging their histories (particularly post-colonial experiences), and avoiding a condescending or patronizing approach. The speaker, coming from a country with a limited colonial past (Finland), believes this perspective provides credibility. He notes a current lack of this respect in international relations.

Recent Crises as Case Studies: Greenland, Ukraine, and Beyond

Several recent crises are used to illustrate the complexities of the current geopolitical environment and the application of the proposed framework:

• Greenland Crisis (Early 2024): Described as the biggest transatlantic crisis since Suez, the Greenland situation involved a potential US purchase of the territory. The speaker details a strategy of “escalate to deescalate,” combining threats of countermeasures with intensive diplomacy to reach a resolution that preserved Arctic security and respected Danish sovereignty. The crisis highlighted the importance of identifying potential outcomes (good, bad, ugly) and working towards the best possible scenario. The core principle of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity was central to the resolution.
• Ukraine Conflict: The speaker expresses optimism about the prospects for a peace process, citing the increased involvement of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkov. He outlines a five-plus-two document framework addressing security guarantees, prosperity, and sequencing. He challenges the narrative that Russia is winning the war, arguing that Putin’s strategic aims have largely failed: Ukraine is on track to join the EU, NATO has expanded, and European defense spending has increased. He emphasizes the importance of continued support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia. He points to Russia’s economic struggles and the unsustainable cost of the war as factors that will ultimately force a resolution.
• Global Conflicts (Venezuela, Iran, Gaza): The speaker acknowledges the constant stream of crises demanding attention (Venezuela, Ukraine, Greenland, Iran, Gaza) and the need to prioritize and choose battles strategically. The Venezuela situation is presented as particularly complex, balancing principles of international law with concerns about the legitimacy of the Maduro regime.

The Future of Europe and Strategic Autonomy

The discussion turns to the future of Europe, particularly in light of the changing transatlantic relationship. The speaker emphasizes the need for a pragmatic approach, balancing cooperation with the US with a pursuit of greater strategic autonomy.

• Finland’s Unique Position: Finland’s full integration into the EU (including the Eurozone) and its recent NATO membership are presented as examples of a security-driven approach to European integration.
• Differentiated Integration: The speaker, drawing on his academic work on flexible integration, argues for a more flexible approach to EU enlargement, allowing Ukraine to gain membership rights gradually as it implements reforms. He suggests reversing the traditional enlargement process, granting membership first and then negotiating specific policy areas.
• Europe’s Moment: Despite challenges, the speaker expresses optimism about Europe’s future, arguing that its stability and values are increasingly attractive in a turbulent world. He anticipates increased investment in Europe and a greater focus on diversifying partnerships beyond the US.

The Role of Diplomacy: Public vs. Private Engagement

The speaker addresses the question of how to balance public statements with private diplomacy. He frames diplomacy as a combination of formal state-to-state relations and personal relationships. He emphasizes the importance of trust and discretion, suggesting that some issues are best addressed privately. However, he also acknowledges the power of public diplomacy, citing the example of the US President’s use of social media. He stresses the need to navigate this duality strategically.

Concluding Remarks

The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of supporting Ukraine, advocating for a more flexible and inclusive European Union, and embracing a pragmatic approach to foreign policy based on values-based realism and dignified engagement. He believes that despite the challenges, the liberal world order can be preserved and strengthened through adaptation, cooperation, and a commitment to shared values. He emphasizes that Europe is entering a period where it will be increasingly sought after for its stability and values.