LIVE: Opening ceremony for ADIPEC 2025 | REUTERS

Key Concepts

Energy Addition vs. Energy Transition: The core argument that the future energy landscape involves increasing overall energy consumption and supply, rather than a simple replacement of existing sources.
AI and Energy Nexus: The critical and growing interdependence between Artificial Intelligence (AI) and energy, particularly electricity demand for data centers and AI's role in optimizing energy production and efficiency.
Data-Driven Decision Making: The emphasis on using factual data and insights to guide energy policy and investment, rather than being swayed by "drama" or ideology.
Infrastructure Investment: The urgent need for significant capital investment in energy infrastructure, especially transmission lines, to meet future demand.
Pragmatic Policy: The call for policies that enable progress and growth, based on realism and logic, rather than ideology or fleeting popularity.
Energy Abundance and Affordability: The belief that abundant and affordable energy is crucial for national security, economic prosperity, and human flourishing.
Critical Minerals: The recognition of the importance of secure and reliable supply chains for critical minerals essential for energy technologies and AI.

Demand Growth and Energy Addition

The long-term demand for energy across all forms and markets is projected to remain very strong. This necessitates a balance between cost discipline and capital investment, with a focus on efficiency, people, technology, and AI. While short-term headwinds may exist, the fundamental outlook is one of growth.

Key Projections:

Electricity Demand: Expected to surge through 2040, driven by a four-fold increase in power for data centers, 1.5 billion people moving into cities, and over 2 billion new air conditioners coming online.
Aviation: The global airline fleet is projected to double from 25,000 to 50,000.
Renewables: Expected to more than double by 2040.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Growth of 50%.
Jet Fuel: Growth of over 30%.
Oil: Projected to remain above 100 million barrels per day beyond 2040, with increasing use in materials and petrochemicals, not just mobility.

The overarching theme is "energy addition," not "energy replacement," signifying an expansion of energy supply to meet growing needs. Energy is equated with jobs, growth, competitiveness, and intelligence.

The Energy and AI Confluence: Key Findings from the INAC Gathering

Leaders from energy, technology, policy, and finance convened to discuss the synergy between energy and AI. Four key findings emerged:

Reliance on Molecules for Electrons: AI requires electricity, and currently, "molecules" (fossil fuels) are essential for generating these electrons. Secretary Bergam stated, "We used to say that knowledge is power. Now for the first time in history, power is knowledge." Natural gas, in particular, provides over a quarter of the base load power for data centers. A shortage of gas turbines is creating a supply crunch and driving up electricity prices.
Infrastructure Deficit: Current infrastructure is insufficient for future demands. An estimated 6 million kilometers of new transmission lines will be needed by 2040 to support the "tomorrow's economy."
Massive Capital Investment Required: Over $4 trillion annually is estimated to be needed for grids, data centers, and all energy supply sources. While capital is available, the focus must be on creating the right structures to de-risk investments and ensure capital flows to appropriate areas. Unlocking dormant capital in existing energy infrastructure is also a significant opportunity.
Enabling Policy: Policy must facilitate progress and growth, not obstruct it. Policies should be "pragmatic not performative," based on "insight, not ideology," and "built on first principles, not fleeting popularity." Regulation without realism and legislation without logic are seen as detrimental to economies and societies.

ADNOCH's Pragmatic Approach and AI Integration

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) adopts a pragmatic approach to optimize energy, attract capital, and advance technology. ADNOCH is leveraging all available technologies, including AI and robotics, to enhance efficiency and value.

ADNOCH's AI Initiatives:

AIQ: A homegrown company embedding over 200 AI use cases across the business, from wellhead to trading floor.
Impact of AI: These tools are reducing unplanned shutdowns by half and improving overall performance.
"Energy to the Power of AI" Program: A flagship initiative aiming to make production forecasts 90% more accurate.

ADNOCH aims to be the most AI-native energy company, driving intelligence-powered optimization and efficiency. The company highlights its position as a source of low-cost, low-carbon energy barrels, offering certainty and strong ROI for capital investment due to good governance and rule of law. This credibility, predictability, and trust attract global capital to Abu Dhabi and the UAE.

Global Reach and Partnership

ADNOCH's international investment arm, XRG, is actively pursuing global opportunities, with closed gas deals in Mozambique, Egypt, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and the United States. The company is also building a global chemical footprint across five continents and investing in infrastructure and smart energy solutions. ADNOCH emphasizes a disciplined approach, public-private partnerships, and an open door for collaboration.

The Spirit of Unity and Collective Action

The speech draws a parallel between the UAE Flag Day, a moment of national unity, and the need for collective action in the energy industry. Real progress is not the work of individuals or single companies but requires moving together with purpose. The most powerful resource is identified as resilience and resolve, not just resources from the ground. The message is to tune out noise, stay the course, and focus on what truly matters.

Secretary Doug Bergam: Energy, AI, and the Future

Secretary Doug Bergam of the US Energy Dominance Council emphasizes the critical juncture in time where innovation, energy, and national security converge. He highlights historical parallels:

Thomas Edison (150 years ago): The breakthrough in harnessing electricity.
Personal Computer (50 years ago): An inflection point that extended human capability.

Previously, the tech industry used minimal electricity (less than 1% in the US). However, the marriage of electricity and computing has created a new paradigm where a kilowatt of electricity can be converted directly into intelligence.

Key Points by Secretary Bergam:

Manufacturing Intelligence: For the first time, humanity can "manufacture intelligence" through AI, a general-purpose technology with applications in medicine, education, healthcare, and industry.
Unprecedented Demand: The demand for power will be "incredible" due to AI's integral role in defense and national security.
"Energy Addition" is the Reality: There is no "energy transition" but rather "energy addition," with 800 million people still lacking electricity.
Capital Flows to Affordability: Capital will flow to regions with the lowest electricity prices. Policy, not just physics or natural resources, significantly influences energy costs.
Critique of Ideological Policy: Policies driven by "climate extremism" that prioritize fear of future climate catastrophe over human flourishing are detrimental.
AI's Exponential Growth: AI development is progressing at a pace far exceeding Moore's Law, with 10x improvements occurring every six months. Companies failing to grasp this speed risk a "Kodak moment."
US Re-engagement: The US is back at ADIPEC with 248 companies, underscoring the strong relationship with the UAE and the importance of the Gulf region.
Trump Administration's Energy Policy: Characterized as "peace and prosperity," focusing on resolving conflicts and ensuring energy security for allies. The lifting of the LNG export ban and the focus on exporting energy to friends and allies to counter adversaries are highlighted.
"And" Not "Or": The US policy embraces an "and" approach, supporting all forms of reliable, affordable, and unsubsidized energy, including geothermal and nuclear.
Critical Minerals Supply Chain: The US is forming a club of nations to ensure fair trade and processing of critical minerals, essential for advancing energy and AI industries.
Innovation Over Regulation: The call for "innovation not regulation," as regulation is backward-looking, while innovators and inventors drive progress.
Dual Existential Threats: The US focuses on two existential threats: Iran's nuclear weapon capability and the free world losing the "AI arms race."
Winning the AI Arms Race: This requires sufficient power to drive AI development, emphasizing the need for enough power to compete.
Capital Flow and Policy: Capital will flow to places with low electricity prices. Excessive regulation leading to high prices will deter investment.

Panel Discussion: Energy Realities and Securing the Future

A panel featuring ministers from the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt discussed current energy realities.

Key Points from the Panel:

UAE Minister of Energy (Suhail Al Mazrouei):
- The focus is on "energy" broadly, not just oil and gas.
- There is an undeniable requirement for more oil, gas, and renewable energy.
- An investment-friendly environment is crucial for meeting demand.
- A balance between price and global requirements is needed to ensure investment flow.
- Not all countries can invest at the scale of the UAE.
- Concerns about future supply shortages due to declining production and shrinking stored quantities.
- AI and data centers will significantly increase energy demand.
- Does not foresee an oil glut in 2026, citing increasing demand.
- Associated gas production necessitates oil production.
Qatar Minister of Energy (Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi):
- Qatar's policy on the energy transition remains consistent.
- The company cannot reach net-zero, deeming it unachievable.
- Critiques political shifts in energy policy, stating that decisions should be based on facts and realities, not politics.
- Conditional LNG Exports to Europe: Qatar will not deliver LNG to Europe if Europe does not dilute or cancel its Carbon Share Directive (CSD) and its associated 5% penalty on total world turnover.
- Europe needs gas from Qatar, the US, and other sources.
- The impact of such policies extends beyond the oil and gas sector.
Egypt Minister of Energy (Mohamed Shaker):
- Egypt aims to be a key player in the energy landscape, monetizing East Mediterranean molecules at the lowest cost.
- Leveraging existing infrastructure in Egypt to supply energy to various markets.
- Egypt has a large domestic market (120 million people) with growing energy needs.
- Focus on unlocking the upstream sector (oil and gas), accelerating exploration and production.
- Monetizing molecules through the petrochemical sector (value-added derivatives) and refineries (value-added products).
- Exporting energy through terminals.
- Mining and Critical Minerals: Egypt is focused on unleashing the potential of its mining sector and collaborating with partners.
- Energy Mix: Creating an energy mix that leverages renewables, oil and gas, and nuclear power.
- People Element: Emphasizes the importance of people in the value chain, focusing on health and safety.
- Collaboration: Views collaboration as key, highlighting ADIPEC as a platform for fostering collaboration between policymakers, industries, and countries.
- East Mediterranean Gas: Enabling gas availability from Cyprus through Egyptian infrastructure for the rest of the world.
- Egypt is positioned as a platform for growth for companies.

Conclusion and Call to Action

The overarching message is that the future of energy is one of growth and addition, driven by increasing demand from data centers, urbanization, and industrialization. This growth is inextricably linked to AI, which requires significant power. The path forward requires pragmatic policies, massive capital investment in infrastructure, and a focus on innovation. The speakers urge stakeholders to tune out the noise, focus on data, and work collaboratively to ensure affordable, reliable energy for all, which is seen as the foundation for peace, prosperity, and winning the AI arms race. The call to action is for policymakers, business leaders, and innovators to accelerate their efforts and embrace the opportunities presented by this transformative era.