[LIVE] 14th S Rajaratnam Lecture: PM Lawrence Wong on steering Singapore through global change

Key Concepts

• Rules-based International Order: A global system of cooperation, norms, and institutions, largely shaped and underwritten by American leadership after World War II.
• Global Commons: Resources and issues that affect all nations, such as AI governance, climate change, and pandemics, requiring international cooperation.
• ASEAN Cohesion and Integration: The importance of unity among the 10 ASEAN member states to navigate geopolitical tensions and maintain collective relevance.
• Multipolar World: A global landscape with multiple centers of power, requiring diversified partnerships and resilience.
• Economic Interdependence vs. Economic Security: The tension between global economic integration and the desire for national economic self-sufficiency in an era of geopolitical competition.
• Decoupling: The fragmentation of the global economy into separate ecosystems centered around the US and China.
• Strategic Partnerships: Deepened and expanded relationships with like-minded countries to enhance resilience and navigate uncertainty.
• Singapore Cooperation Program: A program focused on human capital development through training programs and study visits for officials from various countries.
• Financing Asia's Transition Partnership (FAST-P): A blended finance platform aimed at mobilizing private capital to support Asia's decarbonization.
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP): An emphasis on openness, inclusivity, and cooperation within the Indo-Pacific region, rejecting zero-sum competition.

Singapore's Journey and the Evolving Global Environment

• Singapore's Success Against the Odds: The nation's remarkable development from a small city-state with limited resources to a vibrant, modern, and globally respected nation, defying initial expectations.
• The Role of the US-Led Order: Singapore's prosperity was significantly enabled by the post-World War II rules-based international order, shaped by American leadership, which fostered global cooperation, free trade, and stability.
• American Leadership: The US supported decolonization, rebuilt defeated enemies, launched the Marshall Plan, established global institutions (UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO), and championed free trade.
• US Intervention in Vietnam: Singapore is profoundly grateful for the tremendous sacrifices the US made intervening in Indochina at that time, which gave Southeast Asia and Singapore the time and space we needed to develop and grow.
• Mr. Rajaratnam's Vision: In 1972, he envisioned Singapore as a global city drawing sustenance from the international economic system.

The Fraying International Order

• Declining Support for Global Engagement in the US: Many Americans feel left behind by globalization, experiencing job losses, stagnant wages, and social dislocation.
• Shifting American Priorities: A growing impulse within America to turn inward, focus on domestic priorities, and scale back costly overseas commitments.
• Marco Rubio's Statement: The US Secretary of State highlighted that the unique role of the US was an "anomaly and a product of the end of the cold war."
• China's Rise: China has emerged as a near-peer competitor of the US, with a new generation believing in the rise of the East and the decline of the West.
• US-China Rivalry: The two countries are locked in a fierce contest for global supremacy, marked by deep mistrust and suspicion, with potential for miscalculations over flashpoints like Taiwan.
• Messy Transition: The world is in a messy transition as America steps back from its traditional role, and no other country is willing or able to fill the vacuum.
• Fragmented and Disorderly World: Nations are turning inward, prioritizing their own narrow interests, leading to growing competition and distrust.

Re-examining Strategic Assumptions

• Europe's Anxiety: Many in Europe were surprised by America's ambiguity on security guarantees for Ukraine and NATO, leading to a rethinking of defense postures.
• France and Poland: France has raised the idea of extending its nuclear umbrella to other European partners, and Poland has expressed interest in acquiring access to nuclear weapons.
• Germany's Bundust: Germany's Bundust has voted to exempt defense spending from its fiscal rules.
• Asia's Concerns: Asian countries are questioning the durability of America's commitment to the region, prompting discussions on bolstering deterrence, including nuclear weapons.
• Fumio Kashida's Warning: The former Japanese Prime Minister warned that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow."
• Pete Hexf's Reassurance: The US Secretary of Defense sought to reassure regional partners, stating that "America first does not mean America alone."
• Obama's Rebalancing Towards Asia: Countries will remember that President Obama once declared that US was rebalancing towards Asia but this stance was not sustained in subsequent US administrations.

Turbulence in the International Economic System

• The International Economics Trilemma: The tension between economic interdependence, economic security, and geopolitical competition, where only two can coexist.
• Economic Instruments as Statecraft: Economic instruments like tariffs, export controls, and sanctions are being used to advance national interests rather than for market purposes.
• US-China Trade War: The US tariffs on Chinese goods are now 145%, and China has responded with tariffs on US goods at 125%, threatening to grind trade to a halt.
• Decoupling of Economies: The deterioration of trade ties will accelerate the decoupling of the US and Chinese economies, creating bifurcated ecosystems.

Singapore's Response and Strategies

• Active Stewardship of the Global Commons: Singapore will contribute actively to addressing global challenges like AI governance, climate change, and pandemics.
• Upholding International Law and Multilateralism: Singapore will take concrete steps to uphold international rules and has nominated Reena as a candidate to serve as a judge at the International Court of Justice.
• Reena Lee's Achievement: Our ambassador Reena Lee led the successful UN negotiations on the high seas treaty on biodiversity.
• Singapore as an Incubator: Singapore can serve as an incubator for practical ideas and initiatives, such as the Friends of COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility.
• Supporting Human Capital Development: Singapore will support other countries' development by sharing its experience through curated training programs and study visits.
• Singapore Cooperation Program's Impact: Since 1992, the Singapore Cooperation Program has benefited more than 155,000 officials from over 180 countries.
• New Development Partnership Unit: A new unit in MFA will coordinate efforts across government agencies to strengthen collaborations and focus on areas where Singapore can make a meaningful impact.
• Focus on Southeast Asia: Singapore will continue to focus on Southeast Asia but will also set aside more resources for partners further afield in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the Pacific, and the Caribbean.
• Championing Deeper Regional Cohesion and Integration: ASEAN remains central to Singapore's foreign policy, and regional unity is more important than ever.
• Mr. S Rajaratnam's Quote: "If we do not hang together, we will end up hanging separately."
• ASEAN Economic Integration: Aiming for 100% tariff elimination across the region, reducing non-tariff barriers, concluding the ASEAN digital economy framework agreement, and upgrading FTAs with key partners.
• ASEAN Power Grid: Accelerating the development of the ASEAN power grid to facilitate crossber electricity trade and transition to green energy.
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP): Singapore will work with the Malaysian chair of ASEAN and EAS partners to translate the AOIP's vision into concrete projects and initiatives.
• Strengthening Global Network of Partnerships: Developing more varied and deeper relations with multiple partners to enhance resilience and navigate uncertainty.
• CPTPP and EU Collaboration: Pursuing greater collaboration between the CPTPP and the EU to facilitate trade and investment flows.
• ASEAN-EU Strategic Partnership: Strengthening the ASEAN-EU strategic partnership to unlock the potential of a combined market of over 1 billion people.
• Deepening Strategic Partnerships: Expanding strategic partnerships with like-minded countries and reaching out to new frontiers in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
• Expanding Diplomatic Missions: Opening new diplomatic missions in Africa and Latin America to foster trade, investment, and partnerships.

Conclusion

Singapore faces a challenging global landscape marked by a fraying international order, US-China rivalry, and economic turbulence. To navigate this environment, Singapore will actively contribute to global cooperation, champion regional integration through ASEAN, and strengthen its network of global partnerships. The nation's success depends not only on its leaders but on the unity and resilience of its citizens, who must remain open to ideas, partnerships, and opportunities. Singapore will continue to be a safe harbor, a global emporium, and a trusted hub, ensuring its people can thrive and contribute to the world.