Ley out, Taylor in. What happens next? | Insiders On Background

Key Concepts

• Leadership Change: The sudden removal of Susan Lee as Liberal Party leader and the appointment of Angus Taylor.
• Voter Drift: The loss of Liberal voters to the Teal independents and One Nation.
• Structural Change: The need for fundamental changes within the Liberal Party’s organization and campaigning methods.
• Credibility & Governability: The party’s struggle to be perceived as a credible alternative government.
• Messaging & Values: The challenge of balancing appeals to different voter bases, particularly regarding immigration.
• Bi-Election in Farah: The upcoming by-election in the seat of Farah and the potential for a contest between the Liberals and Nationals.
• Coalition Dynamics: The strained relationship between the Liberal and National parties.

The Liberal Party Leadership Change & Future Direction

The Liberal Party has undergone a significant leadership change, with Angus Taylor replacing Susan Lee after just nine months in the role. This decision stems from the party’s deeply concerning polling numbers, including being outpolled by One Nation – a situation Fiona Scott, former Liberal MP and current federal vice president, describes as necessitating “something has to change.” The party’s position is so dire that Scott suggests this change may represent “rock bottom.”

The rationale behind Lee’s removal isn’t explicitly stated as a failure of her leadership, but rather a perceived lack of traction and inability to reverse the party’s declining fortunes. Scott acknowledges concerns that the change will be seen as a “cosmetic change” – simply replacing a woman with a man – but points to continued female leadership within the party at state levels (Kelly Sloan in NSW, Leah Faki Oro in NT, Jess in Victoria) and the appointment of Jane Hume as Deputy Leader as mitigating factors. She also draws a parallel to the Labor Party’s removal of Julia Gillard.

Addressing Voter Drift & Rebuilding Credibility

A key challenge for Taylor is to win back voters who have shifted their support to both the Teal independents and One Nation. Scott emphasizes the danger of the Liberal Party being outpolled by a “party of protest” like One Nation, warning against the overlay of “Trumpism” onto the Australian political system. The core issue is a loss of credibility; the party needs to be seen as capable of governing.

Scott highlights the importance of acknowledging past mistakes, referencing Angus Taylor and Jane Hume’s apology for errors made at the last election, particularly regarding tax policy. She notes that Labour will undoubtedly “weaponize” this admission. However, acknowledging mistakes is seen as a necessary step towards rebuilding trust with the electorate.

The Need for Structural Change & Modernization

Beyond leadership, Scott argues for fundamental “structural change” within the Liberal Party. She contends that the party as it exists today is vastly different from the one that won in 2013 and that a significantly different structure will be required to form government again. This change extends to campaigning methods, candidate selection, and internal processes.

Scott paints a picture of a party stuck in the past, comparing Liberal Party meetings to “1987 style Rotary Club meetings” – dominated by an aging demographic and outdated practices. She contrasts this with the more contemporary engagement strategies employed by the Teal independents, utilizing modern communication tools. She advocates for modernizing decision-making processes, moving away from traditional branch meetings. Scott praises Paul Erickson, the Australian Labor Party’s national secretary, for his effective use of modern social media and campaigning techniques, suggesting the Liberals should learn from Labour’s success.

Navigating Immigration & Values Messaging

The new leadership team, led by Taylor and Hume, has initially signaled a focus on immigration, with Taylor stating a desire to “shut the door to those who hate our way of life.” Scott acknowledges the potential danger of this messaging alienating multicultural communities in urban areas, creating a dilemma in attempting to win back both Teal and One Nation voters.

Scott stresses the importance of framing immigration within the context of infrastructure, housing, and social services, referencing her own past comments on aligning immigration rates with capacity. She also emphasizes the positive contributions of immigrants to Australian society, highlighting the country’s multicultural character and the need to maintain a way of life that is attractive to newcomers. She cautions against simplistic “values testing” of potential immigrants.

The Farah By-Election & Coalition Dynamics

The upcoming by-election in Farah presents an immediate challenge for the new leadership. The seat has historical significance for both the Liberal and National parties, being the founding location of the Liberal Party. However, the National Party is also eyeing the seat, creating tension within the coalition. Scott notes that the Nationals have already begun campaigning, despite claims to the contrary.

She calls for a “constructive footing” in the relationship between the Liberal and National parties, suggesting a clear agreement on who will contest the seat is necessary. Scott also raises the possibility of Labour contesting the seat, potentially leading to a three-cornered contest similar to the one in Bullwinkle, which resulted in a Labour victory. She suggests the ideal outcome would be a single candidate representing either the Liberal or National party.

The Future of the Liberal Party: A Coalition of Forces

Scott concludes by emphasizing the need for the Liberal Party to broaden its appeal and build a broader coalition to achieve a majority in the House of Representatives. She draws a parallel to Menzies’ successful coalition-building in 1944, suggesting the party must be willing to reach out to independents like David Pocock, Allegra Spender, Kate Chaney, and Rebecca Shie, and even potentially One Nation, to form a governing majority. This raises the question of whether the Liberals should preference One Nation ahead of Labour in the Farah by-election, a decision Scott states is still under consideration. She believes the party needs to demonstrate that it is listening to voters, even those who have drifted towards protest parties, to avoid further decline.

Notable Quote:

• Fiona Scott: “Change or die. Correct. And Jane and Angus today also owned and apologized for mistakes.” – Highlighting the urgency and self-awareness of the new leadership.

Technical Terms:

• Teals: Independent candidates who ran on a platform of climate action and integrity, winning seats traditionally held by the Liberal Party.
• One Nation: A right-wing populist party with a focus on immigration and national sovereignty.
• Rock Bottom: A point of lowest possible performance or condition, suggesting the Liberal Party’s current situation may be the worst it can get.
• Mia Culpa: An acknowledgement of wrongdoing or fault.
• Hubris: Excessive pride or self-confidence, potentially contributing to the party’s past failures.

Conclusion:

The Liberal Party faces a critical juncture. The leadership change to Angus Taylor is a response to deeply concerning polling numbers and a loss of voter support. However, simply changing leaders is insufficient. The party requires fundamental structural changes, a modernization of its campaigning methods, and a nuanced messaging strategy that can appeal to a broader range of voters. The Farah by-election will be an early test of the new leadership’s ability to navigate these challenges and begin the long process of rebuilding the party’s credibility and regaining the trust of the Australian electorate.