Lebanon truce: Families return to devastated south under Israeli warning | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of hostilities brokered by the US, scheduled for 10 days.
• Buffer Zone: A 10-kilometer deep security area established by Israel inside southern Lebanon.
• Displacement: The forced movement of over 1 million people in Lebanon and a significant portion of northern Israel’s population.
• Litani River: A geographic reference point for Israeli military operations and the proposed security zone.
• Hezbollah: An Iranian-backed militant group and political entity in Lebanon.
• IDF (Israel Defense Forces): The military forces of Israel currently operating in southern Lebanon.

1. Current Status of the Ceasefire

The US-brokered ceasefire, which began recently, is technically holding but remains highly fragile. While the intensity of the six-week conflict has subsided, several critical issues remain unresolved:

• Israeli Troop Presence: Israeli forces remain on Lebanese soil, specifically within the declared 10-kilometer buffer zone.
• Ongoing Incidents: Despite the truce, reports indicate sporadic violence, including Israeli drone strikes on vehicles and retaliatory attacks by Hezbollah against Israeli soldiers in the Kiam region.
• Lack of Long-term Agreement: There is no comprehensive settlement in place, leading many observers and residents to view the current state as a temporary pause rather than a definitive end to the war.

2. Humanitarian Impact and Civilian Perspectives

• Lebanon: Over 2,000 people have been killed, and more than 1 million have been displaced. While some residents are returning to assess damage or attempt repairs, many find their homes uninhabitable. There is deep-seated skepticism regarding the longevity of the ceasefire, with many citing Israel’s history of violating previous agreements.
• Israel: Approximately 80% of Israelis polled support continued military action, reflecting frustration over the lack of "total victory" and the inability of displaced northern residents to return home safely. Life in Israel varies by region; while Tel Aviv maintains a semblance of normalcy, northern residents have lived under constant threat of bombardment, spending significant time in shelters.

3. The Challenge of Disarming Hezbollah

A central point of contention is the demand for Hezbollah to be disarmed. This objective faces significant structural and political hurdles:

• Weak State Capacity: The Lebanese government is described as bankrupt and weak, with an army that is less powerful than Hezbollah’s militia.
• Risk of Civil War: Forcible disarmament by the Lebanese state carries a high risk of internal conflict, a scenario the Lebanese population is desperate to avoid given the country's history of civil war in the 1970s and 80s.
• Political Deadlock: Hezbollah refuses to relinquish its weapons, and the Lebanese government has failed to achieve full disarmament, even in areas south of the Litani River.

4. Political Considerations and Strategic Outlook

• Israeli Internal Politics: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition includes far-right ministers who advocate for the occupation and potential resettlement of parts of southern Lebanon. This creates pressure against a full withdrawal.
• US Influence: The sustainability of the ceasefire is heavily dependent on American diplomatic pressure. President Donald Trump has issued statements prohibiting further Israeli bombing, which serves as a primary mechanism for maintaining the current pause.
• Military Objectives: Israel maintains that the area between the security zone and the Litani line must be cleared of "terrorists and weapons." If this cannot be achieved through diplomacy, the IDF has signaled it may resume military operations, which would necessitate the re-evacuation of returning civilians.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The situation remains a "fragile ceasefire" characterized by mutual distrust and unresolved strategic goals. In Lebanon, the population is exhausted and skeptical, fearing a return to full-scale war. In Israel, there is a profound desire for security for displaced northern citizens, yet the political path to a lasting peace is complicated by the presence of Hezbollah and the internal dynamics of the Israeli government. The immediate future depends on whether diplomatic efforts can transition this 10-day pause into a permanent settlement, or if the lack of a political framework will lead to a resumption of hostilities.