Lebanon's army commander to brief officials on progress towards Hezbollah disarmament

Key Concepts

• Disarmament of Hezbollah: The primary focus is the Lebanese army’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah, particularly in Southern Lebanon.
• Latani River: A key geographical demarcation line for the disarmament phases.
• Awali River: The northern boundary for the second phase of the disarmament plan.
• Israeli Strikes: Ongoing Israeli military actions in Lebanon, contingent on Hezbollah’s disarmament.
• Non-State Actors: Refers to armed groups like Hezbollah operating outside the control of the Lebanese state.
• Operational Control: The Lebanese army’s assertion of authority and presence in Southern Lebanon.

Lebanese Army’s Disarmament Efforts & Israeli Response

The Lebanese army commander is preparing to brief the government on the progress of disarming Hezbollah, specifically in areas bordering Israel. Despite a ceasefire in place since October 2024, Israel continues to conduct near-daily attacks within Lebanon, framing these as necessary if Hezbollah is not disarmed. The Lebanese army was tasked in 2024 with a multi-phase plan to disarm all non-state actors and reclaim state authority, with Hezbollah being the primary target.

Phase One Completion & Israeli Occupation

According to the Lebanese Army Command, the first phase of the disarmament plan – placing all weapons under state control south of the Latani River – has been completed in a “tangible and effective way.” Operational control has been extended over the south, except for approximately 10 square kilometers of territory still occupied by Israeli troops along the border. This ongoing Israeli occupation complicates the situation and provides a point of contention.

Israel’s Threats & Accusations

Israel has repeatedly threatened to expand its strikes if the disarmament process stalls. The Israeli army accuses the Lebanese army of failing to adequately disarm Hezbollah, alleging that the group is actively rebuilding its military capabilities in Southern Lebanon. This accusation underscores the pressure on the Lebanese government to demonstrate concrete results.

Phase Two & Potential for Internal Conflict

The second phase of the disarmament plan focuses on the territory between the Latani River and the Awali River, further north. The army commander’s announcement regarding the commencement of this phase, or the setting of a deadline for its implementation, is considered crucial in preventing an escalation of Israeli attacks.

While Hezbollah did not actively obstruct the first phase south of the Latani River – offering no cooperation but also not directly interfering – it is now refusing to cooperate north of the Latani. This refusal raises the risk of internal conflict between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah. As Zena Hur stated, “Hezbollah now is refusing to cooperate north of the Latani, which means it risks the possibility of internal conflict.”

Logistical Challenges & Political Considerations

The Lebanese army faced logistical challenges during the first phase, primarily due to the rugged terrain of Southern Lebanon. However, the primary concern now lies in navigating the political tensions surrounding the second phase. The government and army are attempting to balance the need to fulfill their commitment to disarmament with the desire to avoid escalating internal conflict. The decision of whether to announce the start of phase two, or to continue containment efforts, will be pivotal.

Conclusion

The situation in Lebanon remains highly volatile. The Lebanese army’s progress in disarming Hezbollah is being closely monitored by Israel, which has made its willingness to escalate military action contingent on the disarmament’s success. The upcoming briefing to the government and the subsequent announcement regarding phase two of the plan will be critical in determining whether Lebanon can avoid further Israeli strikes and, crucially, prevent internal conflict with Hezbollah.