Lebanon-Israel: One year into the fragile ceasefire • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Agreement: An agreement between warring parties to stop fighting.
• Hezbollah: A Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group.
• Israeli Military Strikes: Military actions conducted by Israel.
• Southern Lebanon: The southern region of Lebanon, often a site of conflict.
• Jezine Area: A specific region in southern Lebanon.
• Al Mahmoody and Aljamak: Locations in the Jezine area targeted by strikes.
• Hezbollah Terror Infrastructure: Facilities or assets used by Hezbollah for alleged terrorist activities.
• Fragile Ceasefire: A ceasefire that is unstable and at risk of breaking.
• One-Sided Ceasefire: A ceasefire where one party adheres to its terms while the other does not.
• Assassinations: Targeted killings.
• Escalatory Trend: An increasing pattern of aggressive actions.
• Occupation of Hills: Israel's control over elevated terrain within Lebanese territory.
• Disarming Hezbollah: The process of removing weapons and military capabilities from Hezbollah.
• Beirut's Southern Suburbs: A densely populated area south of Beirut.
• Chief of Staff of Hezbollah: A high-ranking position within Hezbollah's military wing.
• Egyptian Foreign Minister: The minister of foreign affairs of Egypt.
• Shia Community: A branch of Islam, with a significant population in southern Lebanon.
• Speaker of Parliament: The presiding officer of the Lebanese parliament.
• Economic Restraints: Financial difficulties and limitations.
• Social Services: Services provided by the state or organizations to support the well-being of citizens.
• Budget of Hezbollah: The financial resources allocated by Hezbollah.

Summary

Israeli Strikes in Southern Lebanon and Ceasefire Status

The Israeli military has reported conducting another series of strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, occurring exactly one year after a ceasefire was signed between Lebanon and Israel. According to Lebanon's state-run news agency, Israeli aircraft targeted Al Mahmoody and Aljamak in the Jezine area. Israel stated that these strikes were aimed at dismantling Hezbollah "terror infrastructure" in several southern Lebanese locations.

Resident Testimonies on Ceasefire Impact

Residents in southern Lebanon expressed a dire reality, describing daily shelling and gunfire that makes them feel as though they are "dying every day." They report being unable to move freely or access their land for cultivation, living in hardship and without work. For some, the only benefit of the ceasefire was the ability to return to their homes, land, and towns, but they lack peace of mind and anticipate the situation continuing for a long time.

Analysis of the Ceasefire's Fragility

Rouad Tower, a correspondent in Lebanon, described the ceasefire as "very fragile" and, in the view of many in Lebanon, a "one-sided ceasefire." While Hezbollah has reportedly stopped firing missiles at northern Israel, Israel continues to attack Hezbollah infrastructure, Lebanese territory, and conduct near-daily assassinations via air strikes, with an "escalatory trend" observed in recent weeks.

Key Points on Ceasefire Violations:

• Israel's Violations:
  • Near-daily air strikes on Lebanese territory.
  • Occupation of five hills within southern Lebanese land.
• Lebanon's Adherence (Hezbollah):
  • Has not fired rockets or missiles at Israeli territories for the past year.
• Ambiguous Clause: Israel reportedly uses the ceasefire clause stating only Lebanese security forces can hold arms in Lebanon as justification for its attacks, despite Lebanon not completing the disarmament of Hezbollah.
• Mutual Accusations: Both parties perceive the other as not complying with the ceasefire agreement. However, the reality on the ground indicates Israel has been attacking Lebanon while Lebanon has not attacked Israel.

Risk of Escalation and Diplomatic Concerns

There is a clear "escalatory trend" in the type and nature of Israeli air strikes in Lebanon over the past few weeks. A significant escalation occurred with an air strike in Beirut's southern suburbs, targeting and assassinating the new chief of staff of Hezbollah, who had been appointed after his predecessor was killed during the previous year's war. The number of air strikes is also increasing daily.

Diplomats, including the Egyptian Foreign Minister who visited Lebanon recently, have conveyed clear messages indicating a potential for "real large-scale escalation by the Israeli side" in the coming weeks. This escalation is contingent on Lebanon failing to take concrete steps to disarm Hezbollah or at least announce a clear timetable for its disarmament. The situation on the ground is described as "very fragile."

Support for Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon

The majority of residents in southern Lebanon belong to the Shia community. Support for Hezbollah within this community is divided: some support Hezbollah directly, while others support the Amal movement, led by the Speaker of Parliament, which is allied with Hezbollah. A small portion of the population opposes Hezbollah.

However, a common sentiment expressed by people in the south is a desire for "another option." Even those who do not vocally oppose Hezbollah feel they want the state to be present and supportive. Over the past year, due to Lebanon's economic and financial restraints, the state has provided very little assistance for reconstruction or social services. Hezbollah, with an estimated annual budget of at least $1 billion, plays a significant role in providing a social safety net to the people of the south, which contributes to some level of support.

Conclusion

The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, one year after its signing, remains highly fragile and is perceived by many in Lebanon as one-sided. While Hezbollah has largely adhered to its non-aggression pact, Israel has continued its military operations, including air strikes and occupation of territory, citing the need to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure and the group's continued armament. This has led to an escalatory trend, with concerns raised by diplomats about a potential for large-scale conflict if Lebanon does not disarm Hezbollah. The economic hardship in Lebanon and Hezbollah's provision of social services contribute to its continued influence and a complex dynamic of support and desire for alternative governance among the population.