'Lebanon is being held hostage by Hezbollah acting at Iran's behest' • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Hezbollah: A Lebanese Shia militant group and political party, often described as a "state within a state."
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): The Iranian military branch that provides funding, training, and strategic direction to Hezbollah.
• Quds Force: A specialized unit of the IRGC responsible for extraterritorial operations.
• Hybrid Warfare: A military strategy that blends conventional warfare, irregular tactics, and cyber/information operations.
• Unit 121: Hezbollah’s internal assassination unit tasked with eliminating Lebanese political dissenters.
• LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces): The national military of Lebanon, currently viewed as the primary entity capable of asserting a monopoly on the use of force.

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1. Current Status and Resilience of Hezbollah

Despite being significantly degraded by Israeli military operations in 2024—including the mass detonation of communication devices and the assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah—Hezbollah remains active.

• Weaponry: The group has transitioned from using large stockpiles of long-range missiles to relying on short-range rockets and drones. They continue to produce smaller-scale weaponry in underground facilities north of the Litani River.
• Tactical Shifts: A new generation of commanders has adopted "hybrid" tactics, including the use of handwritten notes to evade electronic surveillance.
• Resilience: The group has successfully thwarted Israeli attempts to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon through persistent ground resistance.

2. Financial and Logistical Challenges

Hezbollah is facing a severe financial crisis due to the ongoing conflict and the strain on its primary benefactor, Iran.

• Funding Gap: While Iran previously provided approximately $1 billion annually, current funding is less reliable. Hezbollah is compensating by increasing illicit financing schemes across South America, North America, Africa, and Europe.
• Supply Lines: Weapons smuggling through Syria continues, though the new Syrian regime has reportedly intercepted several shipments.
• Prioritization: Dr. Matthew Levit notes that even with reduced funding, Hezbollah prioritizes military procurement over its political and social service activities.

3. The Role of Iran and Existential Conflict

The relationship between Hezbollah and Iran has deepened to the point of integration.

• Leadership Integration: Following heavy losses, many senior Hezbollah positions are now filled by Iranian officials from the IRGC and Quds Force.
• Existential Stakes: The conflict is viewed as existential for both parties. If the current Iranian regime were to fall, Hezbollah would lose its primary source of income and military hardware, rendering its current model unsustainable.
• Hostage Situation: Dr. Levit argues that Lebanon is effectively being held hostage by Hezbollah, which acts at the behest of Tehran rather than in the interest of the Lebanese state.

4. The 2024 Ceasefire and Disarmament

The 2024 ceasefire agreement included provisions for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, a task that has historically been avoided to prevent civil war.

• Legal Framework: The ceasefire included a side letter with the U.S. clarifying that Israel retains the right to strike Hezbollah if the LAF fails to do so.
• The LAF Solution: Dr. Levit suggests that the LAF is the only viable force to disarm Hezbollah. However, the LAF suffers from a "salary problem," where soldiers are forced to work second jobs to survive. He proposes that international aid (from the U.S. and France) should be contingent on paying these salaries to empower the LAF to assert a monopoly on force.

5. Political Standing and Public Support

Hezbollah’s domestic support has waned significantly, even within its traditional Shia base.

• Loss of Consensus: While Hezbollah previously claimed to act for the "resistance," its unilateral decision to drag Lebanon into war has alienated the broader population.
• Political Weakness: The current Secretary General, Naim Qassem, has recently called for "national consensus" regarding negotiations—a shift Dr. Levit interprets as a sign of political desperation rather than a genuine desire for democratic process.
• Internal Repression: The group maintains control through fear, specifically via Unit 121, which targets Lebanese citizens who oppose the group’s militant agenda.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The main takeaway is that Hezbollah is currently in a state of transition—militarily degraded but tactically adaptive. Its survival is inextricably linked to the survival of the Iranian regime. The path forward for Lebanon, according to the analysis provided, involves breaking the group's reliance on Iranian command and empowering the Lebanese Armed Forces to reclaim the state's monopoly on the use of force. This requires both financial support for the LAF and a firm political commitment to dismantle the "state within a state" structure that has allowed Hezbollah to operate outside of Lebanese national interests for decades.