Latest landmine incident puts Thai-Cambodia peace deal to the test, expert says

Key Concepts

Landmine Explosion: The immediate trigger for renewed tensions, injuring four Thai soldiers.
Peace Declaration Suspension: Thailand's action following the landmine incident, freezing implementation of a peace agreement with Cambodia.
Cambodian Prisoner Release Halt: A planned release of 18 Cambodian prisoners is also on hold.
Ottawa Conventions: International treaty concerning landmines, obligating countries to withdraw landmines.
Ceasefire Violations: Repeated breaches of the ceasefire under the peace accord.
ASEAN Observer Team (AOT): Mechanism for observing military de-escalations.
Humanitarian Concerns: Impact of landmines on border communities, including forced evacuations and restricted access to farmland.
Transactional Diplomacy: US approach under President Trump, focusing on bilateral agreements rather than multilateral engagement.
Bilateral Negotiations: Thailand's preferred method for resolving disputes.

Summary

Landmine Incident and Thai Response

The immediate catalyst for the current tensions between Thailand and Cambodia was a landmine explosion on the border, which injured four Thai soldiers. The incident occurred at 9:36 a.m. local time, resulting in one soldier losing his lower right leg, another experiencing chest tightness, a third sustaining a leg injury from shrapnel, and a fourth suffering eye irritation. In response, Thailand has suspended the implementation of a peace declaration with Cambodia, a move confirmed by Prime Minister Anin Chan Vidon. He stated that this freeze is in effect until greater clarity is achieved, viewing the incident as indicative of continued hostility towards Thailand. Consequently, a planned release of 18 Cambodian prisoners, originally scheduled for Wednesday, has also been put on hold.

Cambodian Reaction and Border Dispute

Cambodia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed grave concern over Thailand's potential suspension of the agreement. The Cambodian government has denied accusations of laying fresh mines, refuting Bangkok's claim that findings suggested the mine was newly planted. Phnom Penh insists on its commitment to implementing the peace agreement. The border between Thailand and Cambodia has been the site of several landmine explosions in recent months. The peace deal, aimed at stopping fighting, was overseen by President Trump in October and was considered an initial step towards a lasting end to hostilities following border clashes in July.

Expert Analysis on Renewed Tensions

Tanapad Chhatinrop, assistant professor of international law at Thammasat University, discussed the situation. He noted that the immediate trigger was the landmine explosions in the Gantalak sector, which resulted in casualties among Thai personnel. While Thailand asserts the blast occurred within Thai territory, Cambodia denies responsibility, suggesting the mine might be a remnant of past conflicts. Professor Chhatinrop highlighted that the issue has escalated due to "mushial escalations of the ceasefire bleaches under the Goler peace accord," referring to joint declarations signed in Malaysia. Both sides had committed to military de-escalations under the observation of the ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), including the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and maintaining joint observation mechanisms. Accidents like this, he explained, immediately raise questions of trust and compliance.

Impact on the Peace Deal

Regarding the seriousness of Thailand's suspension, Professor Chhatinrop clarified that the joint declarations made in Malaysia are technically still in place but their implementation has been paused due to uncertainty and security concerns following the border incident. The document remains a political commitment to peace, but its effectiveness now hinges on restoring trust and ensuring both sides feel secure enough to resume cooperation. He emphasized the need to observe Cambodia's response to the developments along the border.

Landmine Removal and Responsibility

The discussion then focused on the issue of landmines. Professor Chhatinrop distinguished between two separate issues:

Obligations under the Ottawa Conventions: Countries are obligated to withdraw landmines, even those planted historically.
Prohibition of New Mines: Both countries must refrain from planting new landmines in the border area.

He stressed the importance of carefully determining whether a landmine is new or a remnant of past conflicts. If it's an older mine, withdrawal may take time, but both sides should clearly demarcate areas to avoid. The planting of newly placed landmines, however, is prohibited under the Ottawa Conventions and can lead to distrust.

Humanitarian and Trade Implications

Professor Chhatinrop addressed the potential impact on trade routes and crossings. He highlighted the serious humanitarian concerns for border communities, many of whom depend on cross-border trade and agriculture. Landmines force evacuations and restrict access to farmland, causing significant human cost. The presence of anti-personnel mine zones also creates legal uncertainty, affecting access to essential services. He stated that governments prioritize humanitarian clearance and victim assistance under international instruments, and people in border areas need to be aware of potential dangers.

Role of International Actors

The role of figures like Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and former US President Donald Trump in brokering a reset was also discussed. Professor Chhatinrop noted that Malaysia, as the ASEAN chairman, played a role in facilitating negotiations in Kuala Lumpur. However, he suggested that the United States under President Trump, while witnessing the peace declarations, now appears to be pursuing its own agenda, focusing on MOUs and bilateral agreements with key ASEAN partners. This approach, he argued, reflects transactional diplomacy rather than multilateral engagement, potentially challenging ASEAN's collective role in peacebuilding.

Commitment to Peaceful Solutions

In light of the Thai Prime Minister's statement about undiminished hostility towards national security, Professor Chhatinrop commented on the commitment to finding a peaceful solution. He stated that Thailand has consistently pursued peaceful settlement of disputes through bilateral negotiations. However, he added that it remains to be seen whether Cambodia will demonstrate the trust and confidence needed to de-escalate the conflict. He reiterated his belief that bilateral mechanisms are the most appropriate way to resolve disputes between the two countries.