Labour's plot to stop Farage | The Daily

Key Concepts

• Conservative-Reform Pact: The potential for a political alliance or deal between the Conservative Party and Reform UK to win the next general election.
• Labour's Election Cancellations: The alleged strategy by the Labour Party to cancel or delay local and mayoral elections due to fear of Reform UK's electoral performance.
• "Coalition of Chaos": A term used to describe a potential government formed by Labour, SNP, Green Party, and other left-leaning or progressive groups.
• "Reverse Takeover": Nigel Farage's stated preference over a "deal" with the Conservatives, implying Reform UK would absorb the Tories.
• Electoral Calculus: The mathematical prediction of election outcomes, particularly concerning Reform UK's potential to win mayoralties.
• "Blob" and Establishment: Terms used to describe the perceived entrenched bureaucracy and mainstream media that are allegedly against right-wing populism.
• Patronage: The system of using offices, titles, and other benefits to control Members of Parliament and ensure loyalty.
• Christmas Traditions: A lighthearted discussion about Christmas decorations, advent calendars, and family celebrations.

Political Landscape and Potential Alliances

The discussion centers on the possibility of the Conservative Party and Reform UK forming a pact to win the next general election, a notion Nigel Farage publicly denies but which Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests is being discussed privately. Rees-Mogg argues that division on the right is "catastrophic" and that the Conservatives and Reform UK, sharing "90% of opinions in common," must unite to prevent a "coalition of chaos" comprising Labour, the SNP, the Greens, and other left-leaning groups. He emphasizes that this is a matter of "national interest."

Nigel Farage's Stance and Negotiating Position

The Financial Times reported that Nigel Farage has been privately suggesting a deal with the Tories, despite publicly stating he would never do so again after the Brexit Party's experience in 2019. Farage's public response, "sometimes people hear what they want to," and his statement that a deal would "cost us votes" and that he would only consider a "reverse takeover," highlight his complex position. Rees-Mogg likens Farage's and Reform UK leader Richard Tice's situation to the Bank of England before a devaluation, where any public discussion of a deal weakens negotiating power. Rees-Mogg speculates that Farage's ultimate goal might be to become Prime Minister in the event of a right-wing coalition victory, a difficult proposition for the Conservatives to accept.

Labour's Electoral Strategy and Allegations of Undemocratic Practices

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on Labour's alleged cancellation and delay of local and mayoral elections. Rees-Mogg labels this an "attack on democracy" and a strategy to "protect Keir Starmer," prevent Reform UK from gaining momentum, and avoid voters seeing the poor performance of Labour candidates. He argues that Labour is "frightened of the voters" and of its own MPs witnessing their poor results, which could lead to challenges to Starmer's leadership.

Evidence of Reform UK's Potential Success

Breaking news is presented, citing a Telegraph investigation and YouGov MRP polling, which suggests Reform UK would have won all four of the mayoralties that have been cancelled. Specifically, Reform UK is projected to win convincingly in Greater Essex (35%), Norfolk and Suffolk (34%), and Hampshire and the Solent (27%), with the Conservatives trailing in second place in each. This data is presented as evidence that Labour's decision to delay or cancel these elections is a direct response to their fear of Reform UK's electoral success and a potential humiliation for Labour. Rees-Mogg asserts this is not "administrative tidiness" but a "sinister" strategy to avoid voters and protect the Labour hierarchy.

Broader Concerns about Democracy

Rees-Mogg draws parallels to other countries where right-wing leaders and parties are targeted. He contrasts this with the Conservative approach, which he believes trusts voters even when they don't vote for them. The discussion touches upon the "European reset" and the perceived socialist belief that the collective interest justifies trampling on individual rights, with a "man in Whitehall really does know best" mentality.

The Budget and Rachel Reeves's Credibility

The conversation shifts to the recent budget and the alleged "lie" by Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer regarding a "black hole" in public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued a letter pointing out a £4.2 billion discrepancy, which the speaker finds extraordinary, especially given the permanent secretary's approval, suggesting the Chancellor has lost official support.

Incompetent Spinning and Untruthfulness

Rees-Mogg interprets these events as an attempt to "humiliate her and expose her," possibly due to annoyance over leaks that complicated budget preparation. He compares Labour's approach to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's "flying kites" strategy but argues that current Labour figures are "not very competent at it." The briefings, intended to "massage opinion," had a "detrimental effect on the economy." The subsequent cover-up is seen as a pattern of "untruthfulness."

The Chess Champion Narrative

The discussion highlights the "astonishing" spin surrounding Rachel Reeves's CV, particularly the claim of being the "women's under 14 chess champion" when she participated in a unisex championship and ranked 26th out of 34. The photograph of her with a chessboard the day before the budget is seen as an attempt to portray her as highly intelligent, which Rees-Mogg suggests indicates intellectual insecurity. He contrasts this with his own lack of chess prowess, admitting to being good at Scrabble and Catchphrase.

Comparison to Historical Events

Rees-Mogg draws a parallel to the 1992 "Black Wednesday" and Norman Lamont's tenure as Chancellor. Despite Lamont being competent, his position weakened daily due to negative press, eventually leading to his dismissal by John Major. Rees-Mogg suggests that Rachel Reeves's "shelf life is rapidly expiring" in a similar fashion, even if the exact timing is uncertain.

The Right's Electoral Challenge and Conservative Performance

The conversation addresses why, with Labour performing poorly, the focus is on coalition possibilities rather than a clear Conservative victory. Rees-Mogg criticizes the left's desire for "even more socialism" despite current failures and the right's inability to capitalize.

Kemi Badenoch's Performance and Conservative Vote

While acknowledging Nigel Farage's influence, Rees-Mogg believes Kemi Badenoch should be performing better, citing her strong Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) and budget rebuttal. He notes that the Conservative vote appears to be "stabilizing and beginning to pick up," moving from a low of 14% to around 19% in some polls, though still trailing Reform UK (around 27%). He observes that Reform UK's growth seems to have "plateaued."

The Magic Number and Tactical Voting

Rees-Mogg questions Reform UK's ability to form a majority on its own, suggesting that the "magic number" of 31.5% might be insufficient, especially with the rise of the Greens and the potential for tactical voting against Reform UK. He argues that a party needs both a majority of seats and a mandate from the electorate to "reform the country."

The Role of Reform UK and Potential Conservative-Reform Deal

The discussion explores how Reform UK fits into this landscape. Rees-Mogg suggests that a Conservative negotiation with Reform UK is more viable when Reform is not experiencing strong growth and the Conservatives are at least plateauing, rather than when the Conservatives are declining and Reform is rising. He warns that a poor performance in the upcoming May elections could lead to calls for Kemi Badenoch's replacement, causing further turmoil for the Conservatives.

Local Elections and Tactical Voting

May's local elections are highlighted as crucial for all parties, particularly for Reform UK's hoped-for breakthrough in Scotland and Wales. Rees-Mogg notes that the right is less adept at tactical voting than the left, a historical issue for the Conservatives, especially since the Brexit Party stood down in 2019. He suggests Reform UK now views the Conservatives as "losers."

Economic Competence and Donations

Rees-Mogg argues that the Conservatives have damaged their claim to economic competence by failing to deliver on promises regarding taxes and immigration, and by the handling of COVID-19 business support. However, he points to Kemi Badenoch attracting significant donations from high-net-worth individuals and business leaders who are hesitant to back Reform UK due to its lack of a proven track record in government. This is contrasted with a recent £9 million donation to Reform UK from Christopher Harborn, a figure associated with cryptocurrency.

Reform UK's Governance Challenges

Rees-Mogg acknowledges the significance of the donation but emphasizes Reform UK's lack of a Chancellor or a full cabinet, posing a challenge for governing. He expresses concern about the potential for chaos if Nigel Farage were to win and struggle to manage the government machine, especially without experienced individuals to navigate the civil service. He suggests an arrangement with the Conservatives would be beneficial due to their experience in government.

The Importance of Patronage in Parliament

Rees-Mogg delves into the mechanics of controlling the House of Commons, explaining that loyalty is maintained through patronage – offices, trade delegations, and titles. He argues that MPs vote with the party not solely out of loyalty but also for personal gain, and that removing these avenues of patronage makes managing Parliament impossible. He notes that appointing individuals to the House of Lords often fails because MPs are jealous and do not understand the political system.

Jacob Rees-Mogg's Role and the Future of the Right

Rees-Mogg denies being an "arch negotiator" or having behind-the-scenes conversations about a pact, stating he is a "friendly acquaintance" of Nigel Farage. He believes that as time progresses, key figures will emerge to broker an arrangement between the Conservatives and Reform UK, despite their public animosity, because they share common philosophies, policies, and voters.

Conservative Association Support for a Deal

Rees-Mogg reports that Conservative associations overwhelmingly desire an arrangement with Reform UK, although he acknowledges that some Reform UK members are strongly anti-Tory, feeling let down by the party. He notes that others in Reform UK are simply "fed up" because they believe the Conservative Party is not sufficiently conservative.

Maintaining Ideological Purity and Avoiding "Off the Reservation" Issues

Rees-Mogg suggests an advantage in a combined approach: Reform UK could keep the Conservatives "real," while the Conservatives could prevent Reform UK from deviating on issues like scrapping the two-child benefit cap.

Negative Stories and Allegations Against Farage

The discussion addresses negative stories surrounding Nigel Farage, including allegations of anti-Semitism and racism, implications of Russian bribes due to Nathan Gil's imprisonment, and accusations involving a gambling syndicate linked to George Cotl. Rees-Mogg acknowledges these stories will likely intensify as the election approaches, comparing it to the treatment of Donald Trump. He believes the "blob" and the establishment are terrified of Farage and that any potential prosecution would be a "political stitch-up." He points to the cancellation of elections as an example of "tricks" being used against Reform UK.

Christmas Traditions and Personal Reflections

The conversation concludes with a lighthearted discussion about Christmas traditions. Rees-Mogg describes his family's celebrations, emphasizing the religious and joyous nature of the occasion. He mentions purchasing a "proper tree" from a local supplier in Somerset, not from Tesco, which he criticizes for removing the word "Christmas" from its marketing. He humorously states he is "not trusted" with decorating the tree or putting the angel on top, leaving those tasks to his children and wife, Helena. He also hints at discussing Christmas presents in a future segment.