Kashmir: Where could the mounting tensions between India and Pakistan be heading? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Cross-border firing between India and Pakistan
• Allegations of Pakistan supporting cross-border terrorism
• Suspension of visas and its impact on families
• Exemption for Sikh pilgrims
• Potential for surgical strikes
• Neutral investigation into the attack
• Water treaty concerns
• Actions against militants and impact on local Kashmiris
• Fear of war among locals
• Nuclear deterrence and limited escalation
• Targeting of civilians to disrupt normalcy
• The Resistance Force (TRF) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)

Border Tensions and Accusations

• For the third consecutive night, Indian and Pakistani troops have reportedly exchanged fire along the disputed border in Kashmir.
• India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism following an attack where gunmen killed dozens of civilians in Indian-controlled territory.
• Islamabad denies these claims.
• The usual handshake between soldiers at the Waga Atari border ceremony is missing, and the gates remain locked.

Travel Restrictions and Exemptions

• Delhi canceled all visas issued to Pakistanis after the attack, and Islamabad reciprocated.
• Families with ties on both sides of the border are being separated. Example: A man's wife and son are stuck in Pakistan because she has a Pakistani passport.
• Sikh pilgrims are exempted from the reciprocal travel ban, as they have religious sites in Pakistan.

Military Engagements and Potential Escalation

• Cross-border firings are currently small-arm engagements with no reported casualties.
• India views the firing from Pakistan as a violation of the ceasefire along the Line of Control.
• Experts believe that both sides will continue with small armed firings.
• The risk of escalation is mitigated by the fact that both countries are nuclear-armed.
• There is a possibility of a surgical strike similar to the one India carried out in 2019 after the Pulwama attack.

Political Rhetoric and Stances

• Pakistan's Prime Minister has called for a neutral investigation into the recent attack.
• India has identified two of the suspected militants involved.
• A former Pakistani official made a controversial statement about blood flowing if the water treaty is suspended.
• The Indian Prime Minister stated that Indian troops will pursue terrorists to the ends of the earth.
• Both sides are engaged in a war of words at the political level and cross-border firings at the military level.

Impact on Local Kashmiris

• Authorities are conducting raids and dismantling homes of suspected militants.
• Families of suspected militants are being punished for the actions of their sons.
• Police have detained 175 suspects in South Kashmir and intensified security operations.
• There is palpable fear and sadness among the locals, with a growing fear of war.

Water Treaty Concerns

• Experts believe that the suspension of the water treaty is primarily political posturing.
• India would need to build structures or dams to stop water flow to Pakistan, which is a long-term process.
• There is panic in Pakistan due to a lack of awareness about the process involved in suspending such treaties.

Prospects for Neutral Investigation

• There is little prospect of a neutral probe, as India is resistant to third-party intervention in the Kashmir issue.
• India has long memories of the UN's involvement in Kashmir, which it views as partisan.

Analysis of the Attack

• The attack deliberately targeted civilians to disrupt any notion of normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Reports suggest that the terrorists asked the victims about their faith before shooting Hindus.
• The terrorist group known as The Resistance Force (TRF) has claimed responsibility.
• TRF is widely considered to be an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist organization.

Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation Risk

• The likelihood of a major escalation is small due to nuclear deterrence.
• Pakistan's nuclear doctrine states that any significant incursion into its territory would lead to nuclear escalation.
• Pakistan has deployed tactical nuclear weapons close to the border, increasing the risk of escalation.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation between India and Pakistan is tense, marked by cross-border firing, accusations of terrorism, and political rhetoric. While the risk of a full-scale war is mitigated by nuclear deterrence, the potential for smaller-scale conflicts and escalations remains. The impact on local Kashmiris is significant, with increased security measures and fear of war. The suspension of visas and the potential disruption of the water treaty add further complexity to the situation. A neutral investigation into the recent attack seems unlikely due to India's reluctance to allow third-party intervention.