John Kiriakou WARNS Venezuela Regime Operation Could Go Worse Than People Think

Key Concepts

• Regime Change: The act of removing a foreign government from power, often through covert or overt actions.
• Nation Building: The process of assisting another nation in establishing stable governance, economic development, and social infrastructure after conflict.
• Monroe Doctrine: A US foreign policy principle opposing European colonialism in the Americas.
• Organic Regime Change: A change in government driven by internal forces within a country, rather than external intervention.
• Sulfur Content in Oil: The level of sulfur in crude oil, impacting refining processes and geopolitical considerations.
• Covert Operations: Secret actions undertaken by governments, often involving intelligence agencies like the CIA.

Historical Context & US Foreign Policy in Latin America

The discussion begins by acknowledging legitimate reasons for applying pressure to the Maduro regime in Venezuela, but cautions against the threat of invasion. It immediately establishes a historical context, highlighting the US’s long and often “ugly” history in Latin America, stemming from the Monroe Doctrine. Specific examples are cited, including the United Fruit Company’s role in the 1954 Guatemalan coup and the support for military dictatorships in South America during the 1980s. The speaker emphasizes that the current situation is “unusual” because the US has never previously used “drugs” as a primary justification for regime change.

The Geopolitical Dimension: China & Venezuelan Oil

A key argument presented is that the situation in Venezuela extends beyond drug concerns and is significantly influenced by China’s growing presence in Latin America. Venezuela possesses vast reserves of oil, but this oil is “very dirty” – high in sulfur content. For decades, the only viable refineries capable of processing this type of oil were located in southern Texas. However, China is now constructing a refinery in the Caribbean, capable of refining this high-sulfur Venezuelan oil. This development is framed as a potential strategic move to counter Chinese influence in the region, with a successful regime change in Venezuela potentially benefiting the Colombian military as well. The drug narrative, the speaker suggests, could be a convenient justification for these broader geopolitical objectives.

The Iraq & Afghanistan Parallels: The Pitfalls of Invasion & Nation Building

The conversation pivots to the potential consequences of a US military intervention in Venezuela, drawing direct parallels to the Iraq War. The speaker asserts that Venezuela, like Iraq, possesses significant oil reserves, raising the risk of a protracted and costly conflict. He emphasizes that “it’s easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That’s the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next.” The distinction between regime change and “nation building” is highlighted, with the latter being described as a far more complex and challenging undertaking.

A compelling anecdote is shared about a meeting the speaker attended the night before the US invasion of Iraq, chaired by Vice President Cheney. The Director of Centcom reportedly predicted that Iraqi citizens would “throw flowers” at US troops and that they could be in Tehran by August. The CIA Director, George Tenet, responded with disbelief, questioning whether the briefer had said “Tehran” or “Baghdad,” exclaiming, “Are these people insane?” This story serves as a stark illustration of the overconfidence and flawed assumptions that often characterize US foreign policy planning.

The Syrian Model: Organic Regime Change as a Superior Alternative

The discussion then turns to Syria, presenting it as a contrasting example. The speaker argues that organic regime change – driven by internal forces – can be “far quicker, far more effective and far less messy” than enforced regime change. He notes that the new Syrian regime, while not ideal, is arguably not worse than the Assad regime, and that the US played a relatively limited role in this transition. The success of this approach is attributed to its internal origins and the limited external intervention, with Putin’s involvement being acknowledged. The speaker advocates for Syria to serve as a “template” for future interventions, favoring aid (economic and military) to internal actors over direct occupation. The example of the CIA simultaneously supporting opposing factions in Syria (Al-Qaeda and groups fighting against it) is cited as a near-miss success achieved “in spite of ourselves.”

CIA Operations in Venezuela: Potential Scenarios

The conversation addresses the likely actions of the CIA in Venezuela, assuming a potential intervention is not a bluff. The CIA would likely focus on influencing Venezuelan media, arming anti-Maduro factions, and attempting to seize control of key infrastructure in Caracas – radio and television stations, the presidential palace, and major intersections. This strategy is likened to the 1967 overthrow of the Greek government, which did not require a full-scale invasion.

The Reality of Intervention: Ukraine & Afghanistan as Cautionary Tales

The speaker cautions against overconfidence, referencing the Russian experience in Ukraine. Despite initial assumptions of a swift victory, the conflict has dragged on for years. He emphasizes that “the best laid plans look straightforward on paper,” but “cold hard reality can kick in.” The example of Afghanistan is also invoked, highlighting the limited success of a 20-year occupation and the fact that even Hamid Karzai, the US-backed president, only effectively controlled a portion of Kabul. The speaker concludes that this is “not a way to run a war.”

Conclusion

The discussion underscores the historical failures of US-led regime change interventions, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East. It advocates for a shift towards supporting organic regime change driven by internal forces, as exemplified by the Syrian case. The speaker highlights the dangers of overconfidence, flawed assumptions, and the immense challenges of nation building. The potential for a costly and protracted conflict in Venezuela, mirroring the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, is a central concern. The conversation ultimately suggests that a more nuanced and cautious approach, prioritizing internal dynamics and limited external intervention, is more likely to yield positive outcomes.