Jihadists threaten to overrun Mali as blockades continue • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Fuel Blockade: Imposed by the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) on Mali, crippling its economy and leading to widespread displacement.
• JNIM (Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin): An Al-Qaeda affiliate operating in Mali, employing strategic attacks like fuel blockades and village evacuations.
• Africa Corps (Wagner Group): Russian paramilitary group allied with the Malian army, involved in ground attacks and drone strikes.
• Jihadist Groups: Extremist organizations operating in Mali and the wider Sahel region, posing a significant transnational security threat.
• Displacement Crisis: Hundreds of thousands of people displaced within Mali and into neighboring countries like Mauritania due to escalating violence.
• Security Cooperation: Challenges in forming effective regional security alliances due to internal crises and the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS.
• Regime Protection: The Malian military government's focus on securing Bamako and its immediate surroundings, leaving other parts of the country vulnerable.
• Transnational Security Concern: The interconnected nature of jihadist activities across West Africa, with Mali serving as a central hub.

Fuel Blockade and Economic Crisis

• Trigger: The Al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM imposed a fuel blockade on Mali in September, cutting off supplies to cities and paralyzing the economy.
• Impact: This action prompted a crisis for Mali's ruling military junta and led to the reopening of some filling stations and the gradual resumption of classes in Bamako.
• JNIM's Strategy: JNIM is replicating tactics seen in Syria and Afghanistan, aiming to collapse or paralyze the country through strategic attacks like the fuel blockade. This aligns with their political objective of creating chaos.
• Government Response: The Malian government is actively working to address the crisis, with reports of fuel trucks entering the country under armed escort. However, the sustainability of this measure is questioned due to the military's involvement in counter-insurgency operations.

Escalating Violence and Displacement

• Intensified Fighting: Recent weeks have seen intensified fighting between the Malian army, its Russian allies (Africa Corps), and armed groups.
• Forced Displacement: Jihadists are forcing entire villages to evacuate, giving residents a few days to leave or face severe consequences, including death.
• Refugee Crisis: Hundreds of refugees are fleeing violence at the border with Mauritania. In the past two weeks alone, over 1,600 people have arrived at one border point, joining over 300,000 already displaced in the region.
• Eyewitness Accounts: Refugees describe living under blockade with cut-off supplies, fleeing drone strikes and ground attacks from the Malian army and Africa Corps, and witnessing their villages being burnt and family members killed.
• "No-Go Zone": One refugee described Mali as a "no-go zone" due to the widespread fighting and insecurity.
• Abduction and Execution: Mariam Cece, a Malian woman with a significant TikTok following who praised the junta, was abducted by suspected jihadists and publicly executed, accused of collaborating with the army.

Regional Security Concerns and International Response

• JNIM's Threat: JNIM poses a significant threat not only to Mali but to the entire West African region. Mali has become a central hub for global jihadism, with foreign fighters returning to the Sahel.
• Regional Instability: If Mali falls, other West African countries could be vulnerable due to porous borders and the crisscrossing of armed groups, presenting a transnational security concern. The core operational areas for these groups are central Sahel states like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• ECOWAS and Security Cooperation: The withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS complicates regional security cooperation. An ECOWAS counter-terrorism force requiring $5 billion to operationalize is difficult to implement without their participation.
• Malian Government's Focus: The military government is preoccupied with regime protection, focusing on securing Bamako and its surroundings, which allows terrorist groups to operate with impunity in other parts of the country.
• African Union's Call: The African Union has called for an urgent international response, including intelligence sharing, to address Mali's worsening security conditions.
• Critique of AU's Response: The coordinator for West and Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies suggests that the AU's statement might be a "secretarial attempt" and that a more effective response would involve deploying an advanced team to engage with the Malian government and identify areas for support.
• Proposed Solutions:
  • Neighborly Engagement: Mali should engage with its consequential neighbors, Ivory Coast and Senegal, for intelligence support and security cooperation.
  • ECOWAS Leverage: Despite its current limitations, ECOWAS should be considered for broader security partnerships.
  • Western Partnerships: Mali should also consider broadening security partnerships with Western nations like the United States, Canada, or even China if necessary.
  • Standby Force: The AU could support Mali by mobilizing a counter-terrorism standby force.
• Mali's Capability: A key argument is that Mali lacks the capability to subdue the current terrorist groups on its own.

Factors Contributing to the Surge in Jihadist Attacks

• Mali as a Terrorist Hub: Mali has become a major headquarters for terrorist groups, attracting foreign fighters due to the ungovernable corridors and opportunities for criminal activities.
• Diversification of Security Cooperation: Mali's sole reliance on Russia for security cooperation is problematic, especially given Russia's involvement in the war with Ukraine, which may limit its ability to provide necessary support.
• Regime Preoccupation: The military government's focus on self-preservation and securing Bamako leaves vast areas of the country vulnerable to jihadist expansion.

Conclusion

The situation in Mali is critical, marked by a severe fuel blockade, escalating violence, and a growing humanitarian crisis. The JNIM's strategic attacks, coupled with the Malian government's limited capacity and focus on regime protection, have created a breeding ground for jihadist expansion across the Sahel. While the African Union has called for international action, concrete and effective support mechanisms are needed, including regional cooperation, engagement with neighbors, and potentially broader international partnerships. Mali's inability to independently subdue the current terrorist threat necessitates a multi-faceted approach to security and stability in the region.