Jason’s Tesla Optimus prediction, Anthropic’s latest mega-raise and more | E2172

Key Concepts:

• Optimus (Tesla's humanoid robot)
• AI and its impact on various industries
• Autonomous driving and related challenges
• Open-source AI models
• The adoption curve of new technologies
• Authentic marketing and word-of-mouth digitization
• Founder University and its role in startup acceleration
• Syndicate investing and deal flow management
• Due diligence process in seed-stage investments

1. Tesla's Optimus and the Future of Robotics:

• Jason Calacanis believes Tesla's Optimus will be the greatest and most successful product ever created, surpassing even the wheel.
• He predicts that people will forget Tesla ever made cars, as Optimus will become the company's primary focus and value driver.
• Calacanis estimates that in 10-20 years, Tesla's car business will be a footnote compared to the impact of Optimus.
• He emphasizes Elon Musk's expertise in building advanced factories, which will enable Tesla to manufacture Optimus at scale.
• Tesla's self-driving experience and AI knowledge, combined with factory expertise, will allow them to create robots that can understand and operate in the real world.
• Calacanis mentions that Tesla disbanded the Dojo team in mid-August but is still working on Optimus, with potential revenue impact expected in about four quarters.
• He acknowledges that Elon Musk is frequently late with his predictions but ultimately gets it right.

2. Challenges and Reactions to Autonomous Vehicles:

• The discussion highlights incidents of violence and harassment towards robots, including Unitree robots in China and Waymo vehicles in the United States.
• A video shows a Unitree robot dressed in a jacket and boxing gloves accosting a man on a moped in China.
• Another video depicts people in Austin harassing a Waymo vehicle, hitting it, making faces at it, and impeding its progress.
• Calacanis expresses concern about the potential for such incidents to escalate, especially with Waymo's permit in New York.
• He suggests the need for laws and regulations to address the issue of interfering with self-driving cars, including potential ramifications for impeding a vehicle.
• The discussion references a viral video in San Francisco of people jumping onto a Waymo and doing backflips off of it.

3. Anthropic's Series F Funding and the AI Landscape:

• Anthropic closed its Series F funding round at $13 billion, with a pre-money valuation of $170 billion and a post-money valuation of $183 billion.
• The funding round was led by iconic Fidelity and Lightseed, indicating strong confidence in the company's potential.
• Anthropic confirmed that it reached a billion AR to start the year and crossed five billion in August.
• Claude Code, Anthropic's command-line interface (CLI) Agentic AI tool, has reached a $500 million run rate since its general access release in May.
• Calacanis uses Claude in his Perplexity browser for deep research, highlighting its effectiveness.
• The discussion contrasts Anthropic's success with the "AI doom and gloom" narrative that has emerged following the release of GPT-5.
• Calacanis argues that concerns about massive spending in AI are unfounded, as major players like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and XAI can afford it.
• He criticizes companies that prioritize dividends over investing in future growth and innovation.

4. Open Source AI Models and Apple's AI Strategy:

• Clement from Hugging Face argues that Apple is not a "complete dud" in AI, as it has been suggested on the show, but is actually doing quite well.
• Apple has released targeted models for on-device AI inference, such as Fast VLM and Mobile Clip 2, which are open source.
• Calacanis agrees that open source is a huge advantage, especially for companies that are behind in AI development.
• He believes that Apple's strength lies in creatives, such as photographers, video editors, and graphic designers, and that its AI efforts should focus on enhancing their tools.
• The discussion highlights the duopoly of Android and iOS in the smartphone market, with iOS holding a 59% market share in the US as of July 2025.
• Alex Willham argues that Apple's growth era from hardware is behind it and that the company needs to focus on software-based growth, potentially through AI-powered subscription services.
• He believes that the app interface is fading and that companies with stronger general AI models will be able to build more compelling operating systems from the ground up.
• Willham bets that a new entrant will take 10% of the smartphone market away from Android and iOS in seven years based on an AI-first phone.

5. Grok Code Fast One and Disruptive Pricing:

• Grok Code Fast One, XAI's coding model, has become a hit due to its speed, high tokens per second, and low cost ($1.50 per million output tokens).
• The model became the number one model on Open Router for a while, processing over a trillion tokens per week.
• The discussion analyzes the revenue implications of Grok Code Fast One's pricing, estimating that 100 billion processed tokens would generate about $117,500 in revenue.
• In comparison, the same usage on Claude Sonnet 4 would generate $1.12 million due to its higher cost.
• Calacanis notes that disruptive pricing is a common strategy for new technologies to gain attention, citing Airbnb and Uber as examples.

6. Scale Social and Digitizing Word-of-Mouth Marketing:

• Scale Social is a company that puts out QR codes at local businesses, allowing customers to upload videos of their experiences.
• The company then turns these videos into socially ready clips and runs them as geo-targeted social advertisements.
• The idea for Scale Social came from Runbin Dong's experience delivering dumplings door-to-door.
• Customers who scan the QR code and share their experience receive a perk from the restaurant, such as a free side or drink.
• Scale Social charges restaurants a SAS fee, with quick-service restaurants paying $1,000 per location per month and full-service restaurants paying $2,000 per location per month.
• The company provides analytics and ROI tracking to restaurants, helping them bridge the gap between marketing spend and local business impact.
• Scale Social's ideal customers are franchiser brands in quick service and full service.
• The discussion highlights the importance of authentic marketing and the power of seeing other people enjoying a restaurant.
• Scale Social participated in Founder University, which provided valuable programming and a supportive community.

7. Founder University and Startup Acceleration:

• Founder University is a pre-accelerator program that provides early-stage startups with education, mentorship, and a community of fellow founders.
• The program focuses on being efficient and not burdening founders, recognizing that their most precious resource is their time.
• Founder University has a competitive application process, with only 10% of applicants being accepted.
• The program emphasizes the importance of getting things done each week and provides feedback and support to founders.
• Calacanis highlights the importance of a founder's personal experience and vision in driving their startup's success.

8. Syndicate Investing and Deal Flow Management:

• The syndicate.com is a platform that allows accredited investors to invest in startups with smaller check sizes.
• The platform has a 50-person investment committee that meets weekly to sort through potential deals.
• The committee members pre-commit to deals, and the one with the most pre-commits is sent to the rest of the syndicate.
• The syndicate provides candid feedback to founders, even if they don't make it through the deal committee.
• Calacanis emphasizes the importance of due diligence in seed-stage investments, focusing on education and identifying major red flags.

9. Due Diligence Process and Investment Philosophy:

• The due diligence process at the seed stage is twofold: educational for pink and red flags insurance accounting contracts and identify major red flags for discussion.
• The goal is to educate founders on what will happen in Series A rounds and advise them on how to fix any issues.
• Calacanis emphasizes that the due diligence process is not meant to slow things down or back out of a deal.
• He shares a quote from Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of recognizing simple, profitable businesses and not overcomplicating the investment decision.
• Calacanis reiterates the importance of repeating key messages and values to his team to ensure everyone understands the company's mission and goals.

10. Conclusion:

The episode covers a wide range of topics, from the future of robotics and AI to the challenges and opportunities in the startup world. Key takeaways include the potential impact of Tesla's Optimus, the importance of open-source AI models, the need for authentic marketing, and the value of programs like Founder University in accelerating startup growth. The discussion also highlights the importance of due diligence in seed-stage investments and the need for founders to be passionate and persistent in pursuing their vision.