Japan's PM Takaichi needs to emulate mentor Abe when dealing with Trump: Analyst

Key Concepts

• Sai Takichi: The first female Prime Minister of Japan.
• LDP (Liberal Democratic Party): Japan's ruling political party.
• Japan Innovation Party: A coalition partner with the LDP.
• Rising Cost of Living: A major economic challenge facing Japan.
• Stagnant Wages: Another key economic issue.
• Aggressive Fiscal Policy: A policy approach involving increased government spending.
• US-Japan Alliance: A crucial diplomatic and security relationship for Japan.
• Apex Summit: A significant international summit.
• US-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relationship: An important regional security framework.

New Cabinet and Political Stability

The formation of a 19-member cabinet under Prime Minister Sai Takichi, including two other female ministers and incorporating former rivals, is analyzed as an attempt to unite the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Professor K. Koga suggests that Takichi's emphasis on maintaining the status quo, rather than significant disruption, was likely a strategic choice to avoid internal instability within the LDP. By bringing rivals into key positions, she aims to foster a more united front, which is crucial for a minority government.

The LDP and Japan Innovation Party Coalition

The coalition between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party is viewed with scrutiny, particularly as the latter received no ministerial posts. Professor Koga posits that the Japan Innovation Party's strategy is to observe and assess their ability to implement their own policies without the immediate risks associated with direct ministerial involvement. By cooperating on specific policies, they can avoid being directly blamed for any difficulties in coordination with the LDP, thus protecting their public support. Key policy areas for the Japan Innovation Party include economics, the concept of a "second capital," and other issues that may not align with LDP priorities.

Immediate Economic Pressures and Policy Responses

The new administration faces immediate pressure from domestic economic challenges, specifically rising prices and stagnant wages. Professor Koga highlights that economic policy will be paramount for both the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party, and for Japan as a whole. Key moves expected in the first 100 days include:

• Tackling the Provisional Tax on Gas: Takichi is expected to address the provisional tax on gas, with a potential cut being a focus.
• Subsidies for Local Governments: Providing more subsidies to local governments is seen as a way to stimulate local economies.
• Navigating Fiscal Policy: Takichi's past advocacy for aggressive fiscal policy will need to be balanced with opposition party concerns, requiring compromise to implement economic policies effectively. Success in economic policy is anticipated to boost the administration's popularity.

Global Stage: Foreign Relations and Diplomacy

Prime Minister Takichi's first major international test will involve her interactions with the United States and regional neighbors.

• Meeting with President Trump: The upcoming meeting with President Trump is critical for reinforcing the US-Japan alliance, which is Japan's most important diplomatic and security policy. Takichi is expected to reassure the importance of this alliance and seek commitments for its future enhancement. Cultivating a strong personal relationship with President Trump, similar to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approach, is also seen as vital due to Trump's concentrated decision-making power.
• Apex Summit and Relations with South Korea: Takichi's debut at the Apex Summit in Seoul presents an opportunity to engage with her Korean counterpart. While Takichi emphasizes the importance of the US-Japan-Korea trilateral relationship, potential tensions may arise due to concerns about her ideological stance on defense posture and historical views regarding World War II.

Conclusion

Japan has entered a new era with its first female Prime Minister, Sai Takichi. However, as Professor Koga emphasizes, the real challenges and tests for her administration are just beginning, particularly in navigating domestic economic pressures and complex international relations. The success of her economic policies and her ability to manage foreign relationships will be crucial for her leadership and Japan's future.