Japan’s PM Ishiba not resigning as he is looking to complete trade deal with US: Expert

Key Concepts:

• Prime Minister Ishiba's political future
• US trade deal and its implications
• Pressure on Ishiba from opposition and within LDP
• LDP's losses in upper and lower house elections
• Potential leadership race and frontrunners
• Impact on Japan's foreign policy
• Frustration of Japanese people regarding inflation and foreign policy

Ishiba's Political Future and Pressure:

• Professor Takashita states that it would be "pretty difficult" for Ishiba to sustain his leadership due to pressure from both the opposition and within the LDP.
• Ishiba lacks strong alliances or supporters within the LDP, unlike Mr. Abe.
• LDP's "devastating loss" in both upper and lower houses complicates decision-making, requiring time-consuming negotiations with opposition parties.
• Ishiba hurriedly called a press conference to deny resignation, indicating his desire to complete the US trade deal under his responsibility.

US Trade Deal and Domestic Pressure:

• The market recognizes the US trade deal at 15%, but Professor Takashita notes that "Mr. Trump and his regime tend to play a game of poker," suggesting potential for change.
• Delicate political factors, such as pressure on Japanese domestic sectors like rice and meat, need to be considered.
• The question is "when" not "if" Ishiba resigns, and his exit could trigger a leadership race.

Potential Leadership Race and Candidates:

• Ishiba is consulting with major figures like Mr. Asso and Mr. Kishida.
• Increased pressure to resign is expected once the US tariff negotiations are finalized.
• Ishiba lacks a strong backup or majority support within the LDP.
• While there are potential candidates, the focus is currently on "whether he will resign quickly or not."
• The power dynamic within the LDP is changing due to the upper house loss.

Impact on Japan's Foreign Policy:

• LDP is "caught red-handed" with a lack of policy to address the frustration of Japanese people, particularly regarding inflation and foreign policy.
• It would be dangerous to categorize Japan's situation as simply a shift to the right, as it differs from the phenomena in Europe.
• The new leader must understand international relationships and address the frustration of Japanese voters.
• Key issues to tackle include trade, foreign policies (particularly regarding the entrance of foreigners), taxation, and inflation pressure.

LDP Election Losses and Consensus Building:

• The combined results of losing the upper house majority and the lower house complicate the process of governing.
• Even if the government reaches an agreement with the US, achieving consensus within the Diet will be difficult, especially concerning budgetary matters.
• Populist parties' proposals, such as cutting consumption tax or abolishing it, further trouble fiscal policy.
• Ishiba faces severe pressure due to lacking a majority in both houses.

Conclusion:

Professor Takashita's analysis paints a picture of a Prime Minister under immense pressure, facing challenges both internally within his party and externally from the opposition and the public. The US trade deal, while a potential achievement, is fraught with complexities and uncertainties. The LDP's recent election losses have significantly weakened Ishiba's position, making it difficult to achieve consensus on key policies. The focus has shifted from who will replace him to when he will resign, and the new leader will need to address the growing frustration of the Japanese people regarding economic and foreign policy issues.