Japan marks 80th anniversary of Hiroshima, Nagasaki bombings

Key Concepts

Atomic bombings, nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, nuclear threshold/taboo, arms race, nuclear arms control treaties, nuclear warheads, geopolitical tensions, nuclear threat, IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), uranium enrichment, ballistic missile programs.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atomic Bombings

On August 6th and 9th, 1945, the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. The Hiroshima bombing resulted in approximately 140,000 deaths by the end of 1945, with tens of thousands more dying later due to radiation exposure. The Nagasaki bombing caused 74,000 deaths by the end of 1945, with a similar number dying in subsequent years. These bombings led to Japan's unconditional surrender, effectively ending World War II. The bombings also ushered in the nuclear era and established a "nuclear threshold" or "nuclear taboo" that has largely been maintained since.

Global Nuclear Arsenal and Proliferation

In 1945, the US was the sole possessor of nuclear weapons. Today, nine countries possess nuclear weapons: Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. These countries collectively possess approximately 12,500 warheads, equivalent to 145,000 Hiroshima bombs. The fear of a US nuclear monopoly drove other nations to pursue nuclear weapons programs. In the 1950s, over two dozen states attempted to develop nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Arms Control and Treaties

The New START treaty between the US and Russia, which limits their nuclear arsenals, is set to expire in February, potentially leaving both countries without any limits on their nuclear weapons for the first time in half a century. The war in Ukraine and attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities have diminished the prospects of a new treaty to replace START. This situation could lead to a more unrestrained nuclear world.

Escalation and Regional Tensions

China is reportedly adding 100 warheads per year to its nuclear stockpile. India's use of the Brahmos long-range cruise missile against Pakistan in May marked a new phase in the nuclear rivalry between the two countries. The IAEA reports that North Korea appears to be constructing a third uranium enrichment site, raising concerns about its nuclear ambitions. Public support for nuclear weapons is growing in South Korea due to the threat posed by North Korea.

Middle East Concerns

The US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, intended to disable their nuclear capabilities, may inadvertently accelerate nuclear proliferation in Iran and elsewhere. Iran has suspended cooperation with the IAEA, refusing to allow UN inspectors on site and dismantle its nuclear program.

Biggest Nuclear Threats

North Korea and Russia are identified as the biggest nuclear threats. North Korea, if it believes its regime is collapsing, might attack its neighbors. Putin, if facing domestic challenges, might disregard the nuclear taboo. A small confrontation in Europe involving Russia could escalate and approach the nuclear threshold.

Silver Linings and Conclusion

The fact that the nuclear threshold has not been crossed is seen as a silver lining. However, the temptation to become a nuclear-capable state remains a persistent threat. The "genie is out of the bottle," suggesting that the threat of nuclear weapons will never disappear.