Japan energy security needs careful balanceーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transit; its closure represents a major energy security crisis.
• Energy Self-Sufficiency: The ability of a nation to meet its energy needs through domestic production (e.g., renewables, nuclear).
• Energy Security: The strategy of ensuring a stable, affordable, and uninterrupted supply of energy.
• Decarbonization vs. Security: The policy tension between transitioning to green energy and maintaining reliable fossil fuel supplies for economic stability.
• Diversification: Reducing reliance on a single geographic region (the Middle East) for energy imports.

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1. The Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

The military conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting a significant portion of global energy supplies. For Japan, which relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports (as of 2024), this has created an "unprecedented crisis." Experts like Koutani Chiro of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, note that while the risk of closure was theoretically known, its realization caught even the U.S. and global markets off guard.

2. Japan’s Immediate Crisis Response

To mitigate the impact of the supply shock, the Japanese government implemented several emergency measures:

• Supply Diversification: Japan shifted procurement to the U.S. and other regions that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. By June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projected that alternative sources would cover over 70% of the previous year’s import levels.
• Strategic Stockpiles: The government released oil from national reserves to stabilize the market.
• Financial Subsidies: To prevent economic panic and keep fuel prices manageable, the government spent approximately 310 billion yen (approx. 1.9 billion USD) in April alone. This kept regular gasoline prices at roughly 170 yen per liter.

3. Structural Challenges and Policy Critiques

Koutani Chiro argues that while current measures are necessary for short-term stability, they are insufficient for long-term resilience. He expresses frustration that despite the lessons from the Ukraine conflict four years ago, Japan has failed to achieve significant structural changes in its energy dependence.

Key Arguments:

• The Cost of Security: Diversifying energy sources and reducing reliance on the Middle East will inevitably increase energy costs. Koutani argues that Japan must view these costs as a necessary investment in national security rather than just an economic expense.
• The "Narrow Path": Japan faces a difficult balancing act between climate change goals (decarbonization) and the immediate necessity of fossil fuels for economic survival. Koutani emphasizes that an extreme shift toward either side is dangerous; fossil fuels remain essential for maintaining the current economy and public life.

4. Strategic Recommendations for Future Energy Security

To prevent a repeat of the current crisis, the following strategies were proposed:

• Increasing Self-Sufficiency: Japan’s energy self-sufficiency stood at only 16% in 2024. Increasing the use of domestic renewable energy and nuclear power is essential to reduce import dependency.
• Infrastructure Cooperation: Since total independence from the Middle East is impossible, Japan should deepen partnerships with oil-producing nations (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to support the expansion of bypass pipelines that circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.
• Pragmatic Fossil Fuel Management: Despite climate goals, maintaining fossil fuel supply chains is a security imperative. Japan’s recent reliance on coal-fired power to maintain electricity stability during the crisis serves as evidence that fossil fuels remain a critical "buffer" for national security.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current energy crisis has exposed the fragility of Japan’s reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. While the government successfully utilized subsidies and alternative sourcing to prevent immediate economic collapse, these are stop-gap measures. The main takeaway is that Japan must move toward a more balanced energy policy that treats energy security as a core component of national defense. This requires accepting higher costs for diversification, investing in domestic energy production, and maintaining a pragmatic approach to fossil fuels while simultaneously pursuing long-term decarbonization. As Koutani noted, "We need to find a good balance between decarbonization and national security instead of making an extreme shift to either side."