January 25th, 2026 | tastylive's First Call

Tasty Live: First Call - Market Outlook for the Week of January 22nd, 2024

Key Concepts:

• Volatility Movers: Tracking changes in implied volatility across various asset classes.
• Binary Event Risk: The uncertainty surrounding specific events (e.g., Fed meeting, earnings releases) with defined outcomes.
• Intervention Framework (FX): The process by which a central bank (BOJ) attempts to influence its currency's value, often using the Fed as a facilitator.
• IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): A percentile ranking of current implied volatility compared to its historical range.
• Delta: A measure of an option's sensitivity to changes in the underlying asset's price.
• FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): The anxiety of potentially missing out on a profitable trading opportunity.
• ROI (Return on Investment): The profitability of an investment.
• Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets.

I. Market Overview & Recent Performance

The market entered the week with a relatively calm backdrop, a contrast to the politically charged start to the year (Maduro news, Powell subpoena, Greenland controversy). Despite initial weakness on Friday, stocks recovered somewhat, while gold and silver experienced significant gains. The US dollar remained weak, and there are indications of potential Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) facilitated through the Federal Reserve. A major winter storm impacting a large portion of the US is also a factor, potentially impacting economic activity. The S&P 500 was down nearly 8/10 of a percent, Nasdaq off 1.1%, Dow down 7/10 of a percent, and Russell 2000 down nearly 1%. Government shutdown odds have risen to 70-80% according to Poly Market.

II. Volatility Analysis – Last Week’s Movers

• Natural Gas: Experienced a massive rally (25% gains over two days) due to the severe winter storm impacting 230 million people. Chris Veio regretted closing a long delta position before the rally.
• Crypto: Saw a slight increase in volatility.
• Oil: Increased volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions (potential strikes in Iran). Currently trading around $61.
• Metals (Gold & Silver): Significant volatility increases, with silver potentially opening up 30 cents higher and gold approaching $5,000/ounce (GCJ6 contract closed at $5,020).
• Yen & Other Currencies: Increased volatility, with reports suggesting BOJ intervention.

III. Macroeconomic & Political Catalysts – This Week

This week is characterized by a saturated calendar of potential market-moving events:

• Government Shutdown: Increasing odds (70-80%) of a shutdown at the end of the month due to Democratic opposition to DHS funding. Historically, markets have tended to rise during government shutdowns.
• Federal Reserve Meeting (Wednesday): Expected to be a “hold rates” meeting with an update to rhetoric. The market doesn’t anticipate a policy change (97% probability). Focus will be on Powell’s press conference and responses to questions regarding the subpoenas, Lisa Cook situation, and potential tariff rulings.
• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in Iran and Venezuela remain wildcards.
• Earnings Releases: A busy week, with key reports from:
  • Tuesday: United Healthcare, Boeing, Rathon
  • Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla
  • Thursday: Apple
• New SEC Option Expiries: Monday and Wednesday expirations now available for MAG7 stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) and related ETFs, offering increased trading opportunities.

IV. Trade Setups & Perspectives

• Ilia Spivac:
  • Short Risk: Maintaining short positions in Bitcoin, S&P (via Qs), and Nasdaq, anticipating a failure to break through October highs.
  • Long Gold: Rolled existing gold position into the J6 contract, taking profits and re-entering.
  • Long Crude Oil: Holding long call verticals with 82 days to expiration, anticipating a rally.
  • Long Yen: Looking for a reference point to structure risk/reward, currently long Euro and Pound, short bonds (long end and belly).
• Chris Veio:
  • Long Yen: Maintaining a long Yen position, anticipating continued intervention.
  • Long Equities (Delta): Leaning towards long delta positions in equities.
  • Long Gold: Waiting for a pullback in silver to re-enter, but optimistic about gold’s potential. Holding $5,000 calls.
  • Long Meta & Tesla (Short Put Spreads): Holding short put spreads in Meta and Tesla through earnings, with Microsoft being the key bellwether for market direction.

V. Key Arguments & Perspectives

• Market’s Demand for Rate Cuts: The market desires rate cuts not necessarily due to economic weakness, but as a “safety net” against increasing geopolitical and political risks.
• AI & Economic Growth: The potential for AI to drive efficiency gains could lead to decreased demand as companies streamline operations and reduce employment, potentially capping long-term economic growth.
• Government Shutdown Impact: Historically, government shutdowns have not significantly harmed the economy and may even lead to short-term market gains.
• Powell’s Role: Powell is expected to remain non-committal in his press conference, avoiding any signals that could upset the market.

VI. Notable Quotes

• Chris Veio: “Rare can you say that a storm that's affecting Albuquerque and Boston in the same day exists. And yet here we are.”
• Ilia Spivac: “The markets clearly are perceiving that what they need is some sort of buffer, some sort of uh safety net of cheap money.”
• Chris Veio: “If you’re the Fed, you’re going to have to field all of these questions in the press conference and how Powell answers those questions do anything about any of them, right?”
• Ilia Spivac: “If you've been sitting in this thing [gold] and I don't have to catch the absolute top, so be it. Because while momentum is here, there is no way to tell where that momentum runs dry.”

VII. Conclusion

The week ahead presents a complex landscape of economic, political, and geopolitical risks. While the Fed meeting is a key event, the potential for unexpected developments (Iran, government shutdown, tariffs) adds significant uncertainty. Both Chris Veio and Ilia Spivac are positioning for volatility, with a mix of long and short positions, emphasizing the importance of risk management and adapting to changing market conditions. The metals, particularly gold and silver, remain attractive, but require careful monitoring. The earnings reports, especially from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, will be crucial in determining the market’s direction.