Jamaican authorities hold news conference as Hurricane Melissa approaches

Key Concepts

• Hurricane Melissa: A Category 5 hurricane impacting Jamaica.
• Landfall: The point where the center of a hurricane crosses a coastline.
• Category 5 Hurricane: The highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, indicating catastrophic and life-threatening damage.
• Tropical Storm Force Winds: Sustained winds of 39-73 mph (63-118 km/h).
• Hurricane Force Winds: Sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher.
• Eye of the Hurricane: The calm, clear center of a hurricane.
• Eyewall: The ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye, containing the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.
• Storm Surge: An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.
• Flash Flooding: Rapid flooding of low-lying areas.
• Landslides: The sliding down of a mass of rock, debris, or earth from a mountain or cliff.
• JPS (Jamaica Public Service): The national electricity provider in Jamaica.
• Telecommunications (Telcos): Mobile network operators and internet service providers.
• Spectrum Bandwidth: The range of frequencies used for wireless communication.
• Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA): The international airport serving Kingston, Jamaica.
• Sangster International Airport (MBJ): The international airport serving Montego Bay, Jamaica.
• Ian Fleming International Airport: A smaller airport in Jamaica.
• Petrojam: Jamaica's national oil refinery.
• Aviation Fuel: Fuel used for aircraft.
• JUTC (Jamaica Urban Transit Company): The public bus service in Jamaica.
• CNG (Compressed Natural Gas): A fuel used for some JUTC buses.
• Shelters: Designated safe locations for people to evacuate to during a hurricane.
• National Disaster Risk Council: The government body responsible for coordinating disaster response in Jamaica.
• Jamaica Defense Force (JDF) & Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF): Jamaica's military and police forces, involved in disaster response.
• SupportJamaica.gov.jm: The official website for donations and support for Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa Update and Impact on Jamaica

This report provides a comprehensive update on Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane, and its imminent impact on Jamaica. Authorities are providing critical information regarding the storm's trajectory, expected intensity, and the necessary preparations and responses.

Storm Trajectory and Intensity

• Current Location: The center of Hurricane Melissa is approximately 70-75 kilometers (43-47 miles) from Jamaica's southwestern coastline.
• Movement: The hurricane is moving towards the north-northeast at 11 kilometers per hour (7 mph), gradually accelerating.
• Landfall Prediction: Landfall is expected on the southwestern coastline, specifically near Parottee in western St. Elizabeth, slightly east of Black River. The storm is then projected to move over the northern part of St. Elizabeth and into southern Trelawny, exiting the island in eastern Trelawny.
• Intensity at Landfall: Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, capable of causing catastrophic and life-threatening damage.
• Post-Landfall Strength: The system is anticipated to gradually decrease in strength over the island, potentially downgrading to a Category 4 and then a Category 3 hurricane as it exits.

Expected Impacts and Hazards

• Wind:
  • Hurricane Force Winds: Expected in sections of St. Elizabeth and Westmoreland, extending into Trelawny, particularly in the path of the eyewall. These winds can cause significant infrastructure damage.
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds: Expected across the rest of the island.
• Rainfall:
  • Heavy Rainfall: Concentrated in the inner core of the storm.
  • Projected Amounts: 20-30 inches (500-750 mm) in the most impacted central and western parishes of Jamaica.
  • Widespread Rainfall: 12-16 inches (300-400 mm) expected for the rest of the island, which is still significant and likely to cause substantial flooding.
• Storm Surge:
  • Expected Height: Up to 13 feet (approximately 4 meters).
  • Affected Areas: Bays and inlets, particularly along the coast of St. Elizabeth (including Black River), and extending into Clarendon (e.g., Portland Cottage, Rocky Point). Coastal areas of Manchester (Alligator Pond, Treasure Beach) and eastward to parts of St. Catherine are also at risk.
• Flooding and Landslides: Significant flooding is expected due to heavy rainfall. Landslides are also a major concern, particularly in Portland, St. Thomas, and St. Elizabeth.
• Tornadoes: Small tornadoes can develop within hurricanes and are a potential danger, typically occurring in flatter, lower-lying areas.
• Lightning: Frequent during thunderstorms associated with the hurricane, posing risks of electrocution and fires.

Preparations and Recommendations

• Reinforce Structures: Authorities advise having as many walls as possible between oneself and the outside to reinforce structures and avoid vulnerability.
• Seek Strongest Shelter: Individuals should be in the strongest available structure.
• Evacuation: For those in low-lying and coastal areas, moving to higher ground is strongly recommended.
• Lulls in the Storm: While there may be periods of calm (e.g., during the eye), these are temporary, and intense conditions will return. It is not advisable to undertake repairs or go outside during these lulls.
• Time Sensitivity: The window for preparations is closing rapidly. By midday, the eyewall is expected to make landfall.
• Life Safety: The primary focus is on saving lives, even over property.

Sector-Specific Updates

• Electricity (JPS):
  • Impact: Hurricane conditions have already caused widespread power outages. Approximately 240,000 customers (35% of JPS customers) are without power, primarily in St. Elizabeth, Manchester, St. James, and Hanover.
  • Affected Parishes: Over 75% of customers in St. Elizabeth, Manchester, Hanover, and Westmoreland are affected.
  • Least Impacted: St. Thomas, Kingston, and St. Andrew, and St. Catherine have less than 10% of customers impacted.
  • Hospitals: Most hospitals are supplied with JPS power, except those in Manchester and St. Elizabeth (Black River, Mandeville, Percy Jr. Hospital), which are operating on standby generator power.
  • Grid Status: There are no plans to shut down the grid. JPS crews are working to restore power where safe.
• Telecommunications (Telcos):
  • Digicel: 26% of the mobile network is offline due to power loss. 209 sites are running on generators, and 9 on batteries. 20% of fiber-to-home customers are offline due to no power. Efforts are underway to keep generator-powered sites operational.
  • Flow/Liberty Caribbean: Additional spectrum bandwidth has been licensed to increase capacity. Liberty Caribbean is introducing mobile connectivity via satellite for SMS and text messages, even when local networks are down, in collaboration with Starlink. This aims to facilitate communication and recovery.
• Airports:
  • Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA): Expected to be operational for emergency relief flights by Thursday, October 30th, 2025, assuming the storm leaves Jamaica by the end of Tuesday, October 28th, and the impact is not extensive. PACAL and JCAA will inspect and clean up the facility on October 29th.
  • Sangster International Airport (MBJ): Uncertainty exists due to potential disabling impacts from a possible Category 3 storm.
  • Ian Fleming International Airport: Being considered as part of contingency planning for certain aircraft types.
• Petrojam:
  • Aviation Fuel: All three international airports and air drones are at 75-80% capacity for aviation fuel, enabling immediate aircraft movement.
  • Supply: Petrojam has a 2-3 week supply of aviation fuel at its Kingston and Montego Bay storage facilities.
• Jamaica Civil Aviation Authority (JCAA):
  • Microwave System: Generally operational, except for links between Winchester Headquarters and Catherine Peak. All remote sites are on generator power, allowing for relief flights.
• JUTC (Jamaica Urban Transit Company):
  • Shelter Transport: JUTC transported 361 persons to shelters by 9:00 PM last night.
  • Operations: All road operations ceased last night, except for essential services staff transport.
  • CNG Buses: Some disruption is expected for CNG-powered buses due to the decommissioning of the CNG plant. However, additional storage was secured prior to the hurricane.

Shelter and Evacuation Status

• Shelters Open: All 800 designated shelters are open.
• Occupancy: 382 shelters are occupied, with approximately 6,000 people seeking refuge.
• Parish Breakdown (Occupancy):
  • Kingston and St. Andrew: 45 shelters, 581 persons.
  • Clarendon: 39 shelters, over 865 persons.
  • Westmoreland: 33 shelters, over 500 persons.
  • St. Mary: 27 shelters, over 500 persons.
  • St. Catherine: 27 shelters, 394 persons.
  • Portmore: 8 shelters, 74 persons.
  • St. Thomas: 18 shelters, 609 persons.
  • Manchester: 23 shelters, 135 persons.
  • St. Ann: 18 shelters, 0 persons (requires follow-up).
  • Trelawny: 19 shelters, over 261 persons.
  • St. James: 30 shelters, 209 persons.
  • Portland: 59 shelters, 541 persons.
  • St. Elizabeth: 26 shelters, 289 persons.
• St. Elizabeth Concern: Reports indicate calls for transportation assistance from St. Elizabeth due to the impending impact. Efforts are being made to provide transportation where possible, but the approaching storm limits options.

Disaster Response and Support

• Multi-Agency Response: A coordinated national multi-agency response is in effect.
• Emergency Services: Jamaica Fire Brigade and JDF were active responding to calls in the corporate area.
• Road Clearances: Teams have been clearing roads blocked by fallen trees, poles, and landslides in St. Thomas, Portland, and St. Catherine.
• Support Jamaica Website: The official website, supportjamaica.gov.jm, has been launched for donations and to mobilize support for relief and recovery efforts. It includes a "Donate Now" page, pledge options, bank transfer details, an emergency update portal, and an interactive shelter locator.
• Tourist Safety: Approximately 25,000 tourists are in Jamaica. Authorities are in constant communication with hotels and providing support to ensure their safety.
• Search and Rescue: The JDF and JCF, as part of the National Disaster Committee, are equipped with boats and helicopters for search and rescue operations once requests are received and it is safe to deploy.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Seriousness of the Threat: There is a strong emphasis on the extreme danger posed by Hurricane Melissa, described as a "monster of a storm" and a "potential generational disaster." The advice is to "not bet against Melissa."
• Resilience of Jamaicans: Despite the severity of the storm, there is an underlying message of hope and the inherent resilience of the Jamaican people to overcome the challenges.
• Importance of Official Information: The public is urged to stay tuned to official channels for updates and to heed the advice of authorities.
• Diaspora Support: The launch of the SupportJamaica website highlights the importance of international support for the recovery efforts.

Notable Quotes

• Evan Thompson (Head of the Weather Service): "Um we recognize that the system has not yet made landfall. The center is still some distance away from the coastline just about 75 70 to 75 kilometers from the southwestern coastline and it is still moving toward the northnortheast."
• Evan Thompson: "The I mentioned that it has been moving slowly, but it has been moving a little bit faster than it was previously because it's now moving at 11 kilometers per hour. That's just about 7 mph."
• Evan Thompson: "We did say that the system is a category 5 hurricane at this time and when it makes landfall, it is expected to still be a category 5 hurricane. That means it will cause catastrophic damage, lifethreatening damage."
• Evan Thompson: "The recommendation from the hurricane center is that you would have as many walls between yourself and the outside as you can because it is important to reinforce yourself and to ensure that you are not left vulnerable to this system."
• Minister Darl Vaz: "Prayers up. Let's start with JPS, which I know is on everybody's mind."
• Minister Darl Vaz: "So, we have to heed everything that Evan has just said."
• Minister Darl Vaz: "So, we we ex we would like to ens ask everyone to ensure that you en that you keep yourself safe. Exercise extreme caution if you have to do anything immediately outside."
• Minister Darl Vaz: "So as this system um makes its way here we're not destroyed ourselves apart from the structures outside we have to make sure that we save our own lives."
• Minister Desmond McKenzie: "Jamaica, this is not the time to be brave. I've been saying for one week, don't bet against Melissa. It is a bet we can't win."
• Minister Desmond McKenzie: "So, as I said before, whatever windows are available, I am asking those especially in St. Elizabeth and those areas who can move to do so at this time."
• Evan Thompson on the Eye of the Hurricane: "First of all, the eye itself is a calm area in the center of the storm. Um so as that moves over, it will appear as if it's all done. It will be a clearing. There will be very little cloud cover. There will be very little wind."
• Evan Thompson on Tornadoes: "We don't talk much about tornadoes either, but actually we do have small tornadoes that develop in hurricanes. And that is something that people need to also be aware of."
• Martha Kelner (Sky News Correspondent): "And very sadly uh these um uh the bell here is rung every time uh one of these uh crates behind there is packed full uh a moment of celebration and acknowledgement of what they're doing here."
• Martha Kelner: "Those wind speeds, just to put into context, are even stronger than Hurricane Katrina, which of course uh devastated New Orleans back in 2005."

Technical Terms and Concepts Explained

• Inner Core (Orange Area): Refers to the most intense part of the hurricane, containing the eyewall with the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.
• Outer Band (Green Area): The outer spiral bands of clouds and rain associated with the hurricane, which can still bring significant weather.
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: A scale used to categorize the intensity of hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds. Category 5 is the highest.
• Landfall: The moment the center of a tropical cyclone makes its closest approach to the coast.
• Storm Surge: A rise in sea level caused by the forces and effects of a storm.
• Eyewall Replacement Cycle: A process where a hurricane can shed its inner eyewall and form a new, larger one, which can affect its intensity and structure.
• Spectrum Bandwidth: The range of radio frequencies used for wireless communication. Increased bandwidth allows for more data transmission and better network performance.
• CNG (Compressed Natural Gas): A fuel that is stored under high pressure.

Logical Connections Between Sections

The summary progresses logically from the immediate threat of the hurricane (its trajectory and intensity) to the specific impacts expected (wind, rain, surge, flooding). This is followed by crucial advice on preparations and safety measures. The report then details the status of essential services (electricity, telecommunications, transportation, airports) and the ongoing disaster response efforts, including shelter operations and the mechanism for international support. Finally, it touches upon the broader context of relief efforts and the resilience of the Jamaican people.

Data, Research Findings, and Statistics

• Distance from Coast: 70-75 km.
• Speed: 11 km/h (7 mph).
• Category: 5.
• Rainfall: 20-30 inches (500-750 mm) in central/western parishes; 12-16 inches (300-400 mm) elsewhere.
• Storm Surge: Up to 13 feet.
• JPS Customers without Power: 240,000 (35%).
• Digicel Mobile Network Offline: 26%.
• Digicel Sites on Generators: 209.
• Digicel Sites on Batteries: 9.
• Digicel Fiber-to-Home Customers Offline: 20%.
• NMIA Relief Flights: Expected by Thursday, October 30th, 2025.
• Petrojam Aviation Fuel Capacity: 75-80%.
• Petrojam Aviation Fuel Supply: 2-3 weeks.
• JUTC Persons to Shelters: 361.
• Total Shelters Open: 800.
• Occupied Shelters: 382.
• Persons in Shelters: ~6,000.
• Tourists in Jamaica: 25,000.
• Wind Speeds in Eyewall: Approaching 300 km/h (185 mph).

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

Hurricane Melissa poses an unprecedented threat to Jamaica as a Category 5 storm. The immediate focus is on life-saving preparations, including reinforcing structures, seeking the safest shelter, and evacuating low-lying and coastal areas. Essential services are already experiencing significant disruptions, with widespread power outages and partial telecommunications failures. The government is coordinating a robust response, with shelters open and emergency services on standby. International support is being mobilized through the supportjamaica.gov.jm website. The message is clear: take the threat seriously, heed official advice, and prioritize safety. While the storm will bring catastrophic conditions, the spirit of Jamaican resilience offers hope for recovery in the aftermath.