Jamaica: Up to 1.5 million people could be affected by category 5 Hurricane Melissa • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Hurricane Category 5: The highest and most intense category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, indicating sustained winds of 157 mph (252 km/h) or higher.
• Early Warning Systems: Mechanisms designed to alert populations about impending natural disasters, allowing for preparation and evacuation.
• Building Codes: Regulations that specify standards for construction to ensure buildings can withstand natural hazards like high winds and earthquakes.
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): A framework and set of measures aimed at preventing new and reducing existing disaster risks and impacts.
• Climate Change Adaptation: Adjusting to actual or expected future climate, including variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage or benefit from opportunities.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming and climate change.
• Storm Surges: An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.
• Landslides/Rock Slides: The movement of rock, earth, or debris down a sloped section of land.

Hurricane Preparedness and Exceptional Circumstances in Jamaica

Badawi Ruban, a specialist in disaster risk reduction and climate change, discusses the impending Category 5 hurricane hitting Jamaica. He notes that while Jamaica is generally well-prepared for natural hazards, this hurricane is exceptional due to its intensity (Category 5), its early occurrence in the hurricane season, and its slow speed. The warm waters of the Caribbean Sea are identified as a key factor fueling the hurricane's strength.

Warning and Evacuation Challenges

• Warning Duration: Warnings for the hurricane have been in place for at least 10 days.
• Jamaica's Preparedness: The island has a history of dealing with storms and hurricanes and possesses good building codes for wind and earthquakes.
• Reluctance to Evacuate: Despite warnings and mandatory evacuation orders issued two days prior, some residents have been reluctant to leave their homes. This is attributed to a "culture of evacuation" that is difficult to instill, as people are accustomed to storms passing quickly.
• Shelter Occupancy: Out of at least 800 shelter centers, only 70 were occupied at the time of the interview, indicating a significant number of people remaining in their homes.
• Mandatory Evacuation Limitations: While evacuation orders were mandatory, authorities cannot use force to compel people to leave, and by the time of the interview, it was likely too late to evacuate safely due to the imminent landfall.

Hurricane Characteristics and Immediate Threats

• Wind Speed: The hurricane is projected to bring wind speeds of 280 kilometers per hour (equivalent to a high-speed train).
• Rainfall: Intense rainfall is expected, with projections of up to 1 meter of rain in 24 hours.
• Slow Movement: The hurricane's slow velocity of 4 kilometers per hour means it will "stagnate" over Jamaica for hours, exacerbating the impact of rain and wind.
• Storm Surges: With 70% of Jamaica's population living within 5 kilometers of the coast, significant storm surges and flooding of coastal zones are anticipated.

Post-Hurricane Priorities and International Aid

• Immediate Priorities: The primary focus for rescuers will be saving lives, assisting the injured, and protecting vulnerable individuals like the elderly.
• Essential Needs: Drinking water will be a critical necessity due to expected widespread flooding.
• Infrastructure Damage: Widespread destruction of infrastructure, including blocked roads due to landslides and rock slides, and power outages, is expected.
• International Assistance: The United Kingdom has already mobilized to send rescue and search teams, highlighting the need for external support.
• Recovery Timeline: Hopes are expressed for a swift recovery, avoiding weeks or months of restoration.

The Role of Climate Change

Ruban emphasizes the direct link between climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like this hurricane.

• Warmer Ocean Temperatures: Climate change is causing warmer sea temperatures in the Caribbean, which act as fuel for hurricanes.
• Global Priority: Climate change is described as the "issue of the century" and a "challenge of humanity," requiring it to remain a priority for governments despite other global concerns like armed conflicts and economic development.
• Mitigation and Adaptation: The need for both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and strengthening adaptation measures is highlighted.
• Adaptation Measures: These include improving early warning systems, educating the population on how to behave during natural hazards (floods, heatwaves, wildfires), strengthening protective measures for homes and infrastructure, and fostering a "culture of prevention" at all levels, from public services to individual citizens.

Hurricane Trajectory and Impact

• Jamaica's Impact: Jamaica is expected to be the most severely hit due to the Category 5 intensity.
• Subsequent Destinations: The hurricane is projected to move towards Cuba, then the Bahamas, and potentially the eastern coast of the United States, though it is hoped it will weaken to a storm by then.

Conclusion

The interview underscores the critical nature of the current hurricane event for Jamaica, emphasizing its exceptional characteristics and the challenges posed by its slow movement and intense rainfall. While Jamaica has robust disaster preparedness measures, the scale of this hurricane necessitates significant international aid and a long-term commitment to addressing climate change to mitigate future extreme weather events. The reluctance of some residents to evacuate highlights the ongoing challenge of fostering a comprehensive culture of disaster preparedness.