Ivan Bebek: The World Isn’t Ready for the Coming Copper Shortage

Key Concepts

Copper Demand & Electrification: The core driver behind increased copper prices and exploration, fueled by electric vehicles, infrastructure modernization, and AI development.
Geopolitical vs. Technical Risk: A key consideration in mining projects – choosing between navigating political/social challenges versus overcoming geological complexities.
Sombrero Project (Capernico): Capernico’s flagship copper project in Southern Peru, exhibiting promising surface sampling and potential for world-class deposits.
Permitting Challenges: The lengthy and complex process of securing permits for mining exploration and development, a significant bottleneck in bringing new copper supply online.
ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) Factors: The increasing importance of responsible mining practices and community engagement in project development.
Copper Supply Deficit: The growing gap between copper demand and available supply, projected to worsen in the coming decades.

The Rising Demand for Copper and Capernico’s Sombrero Project

This interview with Ivan Beick, CEO of Capernico (CPPMF), focuses on the burgeoning demand for copper driven by global electrification and modernization, and details Capernico’s exploration efforts at its Sombrero copper project in Peru. Daniellea Kone, host of the new “Inside Mining” segment on ITM Trading, highlights the shift in Ivan’s focus from gold and silver to copper, a move prompted by the anticipated surge in demand.

The Copper Boom: A New Paradigm

Beick emphasizes that the current copper demand isn’t simply a repeat of past booms, like the one in the early 2000s or the infrastructure-driven demand of the 1960s. He argues that a “new paradigm” is emerging, characterized by a confluence of factors: a growing global population, widespread modernization (including rebuilding infrastructure in developed nations), and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, electric grids, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). He notes that the average grade of copper in existing mines is declining, and the timeframe for bringing new world-class mines online is estimated at 20-30 years. This creates a significant and growing supply deficit.

As Beick states, “Everyone needs copper. They just don’t know it yet.” He points to a panel discussion with Rick Rule and Ross Speedy where he warned about the world’s unpreparedness for the escalating copper demand.

Capernico’s Sombrero Project: A Strategic Approach

Capernico’s flagship project, Sombrero, is located in Southern Peru, on the same geological trend as the Las Bombas mine (the 11th largest copper mine globally). Beick explains that Capernico deliberately chose to tackle “geopolitical social risk” rather than purely technical risk. He believes the project has strong geological potential, evidenced by surface sampling revealing tens of meters of 1% copper and 150-200 meters of over 0.5% copper. Historical drilling by an iron ore company, which abandoned the project due to the incompatibility of copper and iron mining, further motivated Capernico’s investment.

Over the past nine years, Capernico has invested $50 million into the project, securing permits for extensive drilling. Initial drilling in late 2024 was paused due to permit limitations, prompting further geophysical surveys to better understand the subsurface geology. The project now boasts 17 identified targets with the potential for world-class discoveries. Beick notes that approximately 25% of these targets are readily accessible for drilling, while the remaining are covered by volcanic ash, requiring geophysical techniques like electrical magnetic surveys to delineate.

Geological Findings and Exploration Strategy

Beick highlights the consistent positive results from geological investigations. He draws a parallel to his previous successes, stating that “every layer that we took off in Keegan and Ghana was confirming the thesis and getting better and better.” Similarly, at Sombrero, each geological layer uncovered has reinforced the belief that the project could host multiple world-class copper deposits.

The company’s immediate goal is to drill 40-60 “discovery holes” across four major targets within the next 12 months, starting in April, contingent on ongoing permit approvals. Major shareholders include New Modent Tech.

Copper vs. Gold & Silver: A Comparative Analysis

Beick contrasts copper with his previous experiences in gold and silver mining. He describes gold as a more “emotional” investment, prone to significant price swings upon discovery. Silver, while also valuable, is influenced by both precious metal and industrial demand (like solar panels). He positions copper as the “flavor of this cycle,” driven by the fundamental need for electrification and the lack of readily available supply.

He recalls a conversation with legendary mine finder David Lowell, who predicted a long-term upward trend in copper prices, reaching $40 per ton. Current copper prices are around $5.80 - $6 per ton, suggesting significant potential for growth. Beick also emphasizes the importance of social license to operate, stating that “the communities…can stop a mine, they can start a mine. They have more power than the government.”

Silver Outlook and Geopolitical Concerns

When questioned about silver, Beick acknowledges its potential for significant gains, noting that it has underperformed relative to gold. He recounts a conversation with an investor who predicted silver reaching $270 per ounce, a figure he considers “unbelievable, but believable.”

Beick expresses serious concerns about the current geopolitical climate, stating he is “more worried about a third world war than anything else right now.”

Capernico Investment Details

Capernico’s ticker symbol is COPR, and in the US, it trades as CPPMF. The company has secured significant shareholder support from major investors like New Modent Tech.

Notable Quotes

Ivan Beick: “Everyone needs copper. They just don’t know it yet.”
Ivan Beick: “The problems with gold is geopolitical. If you see it ending quick right now with what's going on in the world, let me know. I don't.”
Ivan Beick: “Copper is the future. Everything in the planet’s going towards electrification. The demand of copper is going to be massive.”
Ivan Beick: “It’s not amount of copper that’s the issue. It’s the time to get that copper on the line.”

Technical Terms

ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance): A set of standards for a company’s operations that socially responsible investors use to screen potential investments.
Geophysical Surveys (Electrical Magnetic): Techniques used to image the subsurface geology without drilling, utilizing electrical and magnetic properties of rocks.
Geological Trend: A regional alignment of geological features, often indicating potential for mineral deposits.
Permitting: The process of obtaining legal authorization to explore and develop a mining project.
Surface Sampling: Collecting and analyzing rock samples from the surface to identify potential mineralization.
Copper Grade: The concentration of copper in ore, expressed as a percentage.
World-Class Deposit: A large, high-grade mineral deposit with significant economic potential.
Geopolitical Risk: The risk associated with political instability, government regulations, and social unrest in a mining jurisdiction.
Technical Risk: The risk associated with the geological complexity and challenges of finding and extracting minerals.