It’s Happening: Gold and Silver Prices are Signaling a Peak

Key Concepts

• Market Recap: A summary of market performance over a specific period.
• Gold and Silver Miners: Companies involved in the extraction and production of gold and silver.
• GDX and GDXJ: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that track the performance of gold miners (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ).
• SIJ: An ETF tracking silver miners.
• Bearish Engulfing Candle: A candlestick pattern indicating a potential price reversal to the downside.
• Bearish Shooting Star Candle: A candlestick pattern that suggests a potential reversal after an uptrend, characterized by a long upper shadow and a small body near the low.
• Hanging Man Candle: A bearish reversal candlestick pattern that appears after an uptrend, with a small body near the top and a long lower shadow.
• 200-Day Moving Average: A technical indicator representing the average closing price of an asset over the past 200 days, often used to identify long-term trends.
• Support Levels: Price points where buying interest is expected to be strong enough to prevent further price declines.
• Resistance Levels: Price points where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent further price increases.
• Gold-Silver Ratio: The ratio of the price of gold to the price of silver, often used as an indicator of market sentiment.
• Secular Bull Market: A long-term upward trend in asset prices.
• Intermediate-Term Peak: A temporary high point in prices before a potential decline, distinct from a major, long-term peak.
• Call Volume vs. Put Volume: A measure of trading activity in options contracts, where calls represent the right to buy and puts represent the right to sell. A spike in call volume relative to put volume can indicate bullish sentiment, but an extreme spike can signal a potential top.
• GLD and SLV: ETFs that track the price of gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), respectively.
• Measured Upside Move: A technical analysis concept that projects potential price targets based on previous price patterns.

Market Overview: Gold, Silver, and Miners Sell-off

The market experienced a significant downturn on Friday, October 17, 2025, with gold, silver, and particularly their associated mining stocks seeing substantial declines. The presenter believes this marks a potential "long-awaited peak" for these assets.

Key Observations:

• Miners Hit Hardest: The decline was most pronounced in mining stocks, with ETFs like GDX (gold miners) and GDXJ (junior gold miners) showing "ugly" red candles. The silver miners' ETF, SIJ, also experienced a severe sell-off.
• Underperformance of Miners: This underperformance of miners relative to the metals themselves is viewed as a negative sign, especially after a prolonged period of strong gains in the sector.
• Candlestick Patterns:
  • Silver: Exhibited a "nasty bearish engulfing candle," suggesting a strong reversal to the downside.
  • Gold: While not a full bearish engulfing, the candle was described as "close" to one.
  • Silver Stocks (SIL, SILJ): Showed a pattern of bearish candles over the past three weeks, including bearish hanging man candles two weeks prior and bearish shooting stars this week.

Gold Technical Analysis and Support Levels

The analysis of gold's daily chart suggests a potential peak has been reached, with specific support levels identified.

Key Points:

• Previous Breakout: Gold had a significant breakout above $3,400.
• Identified Support: The clear significant support level for gold is identified as being between $3,600 and $3,700. This area is significant because the price action since the breakout has been largely vertical with minimal selling pressure until the recent sharp decline from a peak at $4,400.
• 15% Decline Target: A 15% decline from the peak would bring gold down to approximately $3,700.
• Vince Lansancy's Floor: Reference is made to an interview with Vince Lansancy, who stated that $3,500 is a floor for the market.
• 200-Day Moving Average: The 200-day moving average is projected to be tested in the winter, potentially intersecting with the market around $3,600. This intersection is anticipated to be an "exceptional buying opportunity" if it occurs.
• Initial Support: Initial support for gold might be found around $4,000, potentially leading to a brief bounce before a further decline to the stronger support zone of $3,700.

Silver Technical Analysis and Support Levels

Silver also showed signs of a potential reversal, with specific support levels and a notable candlestick pattern.

Key Points:

• Bearish Engulfing Candle: A "nasty bearish engulfing candle" was observed.
• Price Action: Silver traded up to $54, marking another weekly close above $50, but a monthly close above $50 has not yet occurred.
• Gap: A gap in silver's price action is noted around $40.
• Support Levels:
  • Strong support is identified below the gap, around $39.
  • Strong support is also present above the gap, around $40.50 to $41.
  • Another support level is around $42.
• Initial Support: Initial support for silver is estimated to be around $48. A break below $48 would likely lead to a decline into the mid-$40s.
• 200-Day Moving Average: The 200-day moving average for silver was not explicitly sketched but is expected to trend higher.

Gold-Silver Ratio and Secular Trends

The gold-silver ratio is examined in the context of long-term market trends.

Key Points:

• Ratio Movement: The gold-silver ratio saw a move up to 85, closing between 81 and 83.
• Secular Bull Market Indicator: The presenter reiterates that secular bull markets in gold and silver typically end when the gold-silver ratio reaches around 15.
• Current Context: This implies that despite the current potential peak, the market is "nowhere near any significant peak" in the context of secular bull markets.

Weekly Chart Analysis: Overbought Conditions and Potential Peaks

The weekly charts for gold and silver reveal overbought conditions and further evidence supporting the idea of an intermediate-term peak.

Key Points:

• Overbought Status: Both gold and silver have been in an uptrend for approximately nine weeks, indicating they are overbought.
• Weekly Candles:
  • Gold: The weekly candle, despite the Friday sell-off, finished up over 5% for the week and was "quite close at the high of the week," described as "not a terrible candle."
  • Silver: The weekly candle is characterized as a "bearish shooting star," although it was also higher on the week.
• Probability Favoring a Peak: The balance of probabilities still favors that an intermediate-term peak has been put in for gold and silver.

Options Market Data: Call Volume vs. Put Volume

Analysis of options trading data for gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) ETFs provides strong evidence for a potential peak.

Key Findings (from Suburade on Twitter):

• Historical Spikes: Extreme spikes in the difference between call volume and put volume (call volume minus put volume) have historically coincided with market peaks:
  • 2011: A significant spike preceded the peak in gold.
  • 2020: Another spike coincided with the COVID peak.
  • April Peak: A spike occurred before the April peak, after which the market consolidated and then rallied.
• Current Spike: A similar, significant spike is observed in the current data for both GLD and SLV.
• Interpretation: While these spikes indicate extreme bullish sentiment, they do not necessarily signal a major, multi-year peak. The presenter notes that after the 2011 GLD spike, gold consolidated for 4.5 months before exploding higher.
• Conclusion: The current spikes suggest an "intermediate term peak" that should not be taken lightly.

Silver Stock Analysis: Bearish Reversal Patterns

The analysis of silver mining stocks (SIL and SILJ) highlights consistent bearish reversal patterns.

Key Observations:

• Previous Bearish Candles: Last week, bearish hanging man candles were observed in SIL and SILJ.
• Current Bearish Candles: This week, bearish shooting star candles were formed, even though the stocks were up during the week.
  • Shooting Star Definition: A shooting star is a reversal candle after an uptrend, characterized by a long upper shadow and a small body near the low. It indicates market exhaustion.
  • Hanging Man Definition: A hanging man has a small body near the top and a long lower shadow, also signaling potential weakness.
• Measured Move Targets Reached:
  • SILJ: The measured upside move from its breakout was projected at 27, and it peaked at 27.
  • SIL: The projected target was 74-75, and it clearly hit 75 this week.
• Conclusion: After three weeks of bearish candles, a "significant top" is believed to be forming in the silver stocks.

Gold Stock Analysis: Bearish Shooting Stars

Gold mining stocks are also exhibiting bearish reversal patterns.

Key Observations:

• Bearish Candles Last Week: Bearish candles were noted in gold stocks last week.
• Bearish Shooting Stars This Week: Similar to silver stocks, gold mining ETFs like GDX and GDXJ are showing "bearish shooting stars."
• Conclusion: These patterns reinforce the belief that Friday marked a peak for the miners, and lower prices are anticipated in the coming days and weeks.

Conclusion and Outlook

The presenter concludes that Friday, October 17, 2025, likely marked an intermediate-term peak for gold, silver, and especially their mining stocks.

Key Takeaways:

• Anticipated Decline: Lower prices are expected over the coming days and weeks.
• Opportunity for New Investors: This anticipated decline is seen as a positive development for those who have entered the sector recently with cash on the sidelines, as they may be rewarded with buying opportunities.
• Not a Major Long-Term Top: It's important to distinguish this intermediate-term peak from a major, secular top that would lead to years of decline. The historical context of the gold-silver ratio suggests a longer-term bull market may still be in play.
• Call to Action: Viewers are encouraged to leave comments and engage with the content.