IT'S GOING TO GET CRAZY | Raoul Pal feat Emad Mostaque

Key Concepts:

• Intelligence per unit of energy
• Jevons Law
• Cognitive worker
• AI tokens
• Synchronous vs. Asynchronous work
• Economic singularity

Intelligence per Unit of Energy and AI Acceleration

The core KPI for the universe, as framed by GMI, is "intelligence per unit of energy." This concept suggests an acceleration where, for a given amount of energy, we are achieving greater output. Contrary to concerns about AI not being "good enough," the actual situation is that AI has become "too good too quickly." This means that running economically valuable AI applications, such as tax preparation, no longer requires gigantic supercomputers.

Jevons Law and Token Economics

The principle of Jevons Law, which states that as prices decrease, demand increases, is relevant here. If an average cognitive worker uses approximately 200,000 mental tokens per day, and AI tokens become comparable in cost, this equates to roughly 70 million tokens per year. The cost for this is estimated at a mere $35 per year, and importantly, this can run on "any chip," not requiring specialized supercomputing hardware.

Shift to Asynchronous Work and Economic Value

Even as AI performance breaks through and we transition from synchronous work to asynchronous work, which is inherently more economically valuable, the flow of value in the economy is poised for a significant shift. The speaker posits that within three years, jobs involving cognitive labor that can be performed remotely are likely to be replaced by AI. This replacement will occur by AI synthesizing all of an individual's communications (Slack messages), code, and documents to create a virtual replica.

Implications of Virtual AI Agents

These virtual AI agents, such as a virtual "R.A." or "Emad," could consume anywhere from 10 million to a billion tokens per year. Even at these scales, the cost remains remarkably low, estimated at $100, $200, or $1,000 annually. The speaker emphasizes that many people have not yet performed these calculations, which have profound societal implications for economic stability and the flow of money.

The Economic Singularity

The speaker refers to this impending shift as the "economic singularity," suggesting that current economic frameworks, including those of the Federal Reserve, may no longer be relevant. This collapse of existing structures will lead to an "unknown world."