Israeli defense minister says they’re “now facing the completion of the Gaza campaign” | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Gaza conflict, Israeli military campaign, Hamas, Hostage release, Ceasefire, US involvement, Donald Trump, Abraham Accords, Aid distribution, Humanitarian crisis, Potential Arab state involvement in Gaza administration.

1. Situation Overview in Gaza:

• Ongoing Conflict: Israeli air strikes and gunfire continue in Gaza, resulting in dozens of Palestinian deaths. A crowded seaside cafe in Gaza City was hit, reportedly killing almost 30 civilians, including women and children. Witnesses described the explosions as "like an earthquake."
• Food Aid Crisis: Palestinians seeking food aid have also come under fire, resulting in at least 11 deaths.
• Casualty Figures: The Associated Press reported over 70 Palestinians killed on Monday alone, with strikes continuing into the night.
• Israeli Perspective: Defense Minister Israel Katz suggested the military campaign in Gaza might be nearing completion, with the goals being the release of all hostages and the defeat of Hamas. He acknowledged that "there are still many missions to be accomplished."

2. Ceasefire Efforts and US Involvement:

• Trump's Initiative: Donald Trump is pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, buoyed by the US bombing campaign in Iran and a ceasefire there. He believes a ceasefire is close, stating, "within the next week we're going to get a ceasefire."
• Meeting Plans: Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly scheduled to meet with Donald Trump on July 7th. Israeli officials are already in Washington.
• Trump's Goal: Trump aims to move beyond temporary peace deals to a more permanent solution.

3. Potential US-Israeli Plan (Reported by Israel Hyom):

• Israeli Conditions: Israel would end its military action in exchange for:
  • The release of all hostages in Gaza.
  • The exile of Hamas leaders.
  • The administration of Gaza by four Arab states (likely Egypt and the UAE).
  • The expansion of the Abraham Accords.
• Abraham Accords: The original Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. Expansion could include Syria and Saudi Arabia.
• Netanyahu's Office Contest: Netanyahu's office contests the report.

4. Perspectives on Ceasefire Prospects:

• Amnan Iran's Analysis: Amnan Iran, a professor of international politics of the Middle East at City University of London, believes the chances of a ceasefire are "perhaps higher than they were before" due to the war between Israel and Iran and Trump's stronger position. However, he cautions that success is "far from a foregone conclusion."
• Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality: Iran notes a "very large gap" between the Israeli defense minister's comments and the situation on the ground. He points out that many hostages remain in Gaza (some presumed dead), and Hamas maintains a significant presence.
• Unachieved Goals: The goals of releasing hostages and eradicating Hamas have not been achieved.
• Israeli Leadership Appetite: While some factions in Netanyahu's government want to continue the war indefinitely, the general appetite in the Israeli public and government is decreasing. Netanyahu has elevated the release of hostages to the first priority.

5. Arab State Involvement in Gaza Administration:

• Uncertainty: No Arab country has agreed to administer Gaza.
• Conditions for Involvement: Involvement would likely require a significant exchange, such as the expansion of the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia and a non-aggression agreement between Israel and Syria.
• Obstacles: The Gaza Strip is devastated and requires significant rebuilding, posing financial and political challenges for any administering state.
• Potential Pretext: Arab states might use the prevention of the "Trump plan" (voluntary transfer of Palestinians from Gaza) as a pretext for involvement.

6. Humanitarian Crisis and Aid Distribution:

• Dire Situation: The situation in Gaza is "very, very dire." The blockade has been somewhat lifted, but supplies are insufficient.
• Displacement: Excessive displacement orders have squeezed people into ever smaller parts of the Gaza Strip.
• Aid Distribution Issues: The implementation of the Gazianarian fund and the new aid distribution scheme puts additional stress on the population.
• Ceasefire Impact: A ceasefire is needed to stop the killing and allow for negotiations. Key questions include unimpeded access for humanitarian aid and private sector supplies, the extension of the buffer zone, and freedom of movement for aid workers and the population.
• Urgent Needs: Everything is needed in Gaza, including safety, security, food, medical care, fuel, sanitation, water, and education.

7. Theft of Humanitarian Aid:

• Justification vs. Reality: Even if there were large-scale theft of aid, it would not justify the starvation of the entire population.
• Limited Evidence: Katis International Disaster Response has not observed large amounts of aid being stolen or diverted to Hamas. Most aid brought in through trusted partners reaches warehouses and is distributed from there.
• Incidents of Looting: There have been incidents of looting, but it is unclear whether this was done by civilians or militants, and it was not the majority of the aid.

8. Conclusion:

The situation in Gaza remains critical, with ongoing conflict, a dire humanitarian crisis, and complex political dynamics. While a ceasefire is being actively pursued, its terms and the potential for a lasting solution are uncertain. Key challenges include addressing the needs of the Gazan population, ensuring unimpeded access for humanitarian aid, and finding a viable governance structure for the Gaza Strip. The involvement of Arab states remains a possibility, but it is contingent on significant diplomatic breakthroughs and guarantees.