Israeli air strikes killed at least 25 people on Wednesday, say Gaza officials | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire: An agreement to stop fighting.
• Yellow Line: The military border separating Israeli and Hamas-controlled areas in Gaza.
• Trump's 20-point Peace Plan: A proposed plan for peace between Israel and Hamas, with phases for ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and a technocratic government.
• International Stabilization Force: A proposed multinational force to take over security in Gaza.
• Technocratic Government: A government run by technical experts.
• Hamas: A Palestinian Islamist fundamentalist organization.
• Israeli Army Outpost: A military base established by the Israeli army.
• Reconstruction: The process of rebuilding damaged areas.
• Precarious Status Quo: An unstable situation that is likely to change.
• Mandate: The official authority or role given to an organization or individual.
• Peacekeeping Force: A force deployed to maintain peace in a conflict zone.
• Israeli Air Strikes: Military attacks carried out by Israel using aircraft.

Current Situation in Gaza Post-Ceasefire

Five weeks after the declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the situation in Gaza is characterized by significant destruction and a de facto division of the territory. Israel now controls just over half of Gaza, including a substantial portion of its farmland, demarcated by the "yellow line," which serves as the military border. This Israeli-controlled area includes newly established army outposts. The majority of Gaza's 2 million residents are concentrated in the Hamas-controlled coastal area, many living in tent cities as winter approaches, with their homes destroyed and aid deliveries being slow.

Trump's Peace Plan and its Implementation Challenges

US President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan, which began with a ceasefire, outlined a "phase two" involving further Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament. This phase also envisioned an international stabilization force taking over security responsibilities as Gaza transitions to a technocratic Palestinian government. However, implementation is stalled due to several factors:

• Hamas's Stance: Hamas has only vaguely agreed to some provisions and has not disarmed. While they have expressed readiness to hand over power for reconstruction, armed Hamas fighters continue to police their side of the yellow line.
• Disagreements on Stabilization Force: There are broad disagreements regarding the operational details of the stabilization force, including which countries would contribute troops and the scope of their powers and responsibilities.
• Lack of Pressure on Israel: The Trump administration has not exerted public pressure on Israel to withdraw, leaving the timeline for this crucial step vague.
• Hamas's Internal Actions: Hamas has engaged in conflict with other armed factions within Gaza, further endangering civilians.

Analysis of the Deadlock and Potential Outcomes

Mayor of Zonshine, a senior analyst on Israel for the International Crisis Group, describes the current situation as a "precarious status quo" that is becoming the "current reality on the ground." He argues that without concrete details and substance from the Trump administration and other engaged governments on how phase two will unfold, this status quo will persist.

Causes of the Deadlock:

• Unconstituted International Bodies: The proposed international stabilization force and a "board of peace" have not been established.
• Conflicting Mandates: Israel desires a force that will disarm Hamas, which is seen as an unrealistic expectation. Potential contributing countries are more inclined towards a peacekeeping role.
• Ongoing Conflict: The continued use of military force by Israel creates a chaotic environment, hindering progress.

Required Movement for Progress:

• Compromise: Both Israel and Hamas will need to compromise. Israel must compromise on certain aspects, and Hamas must disarm in some manner.
• External Resolve: Significant external resolve is required to prevent the temporary Israeli occupation of territory from becoming permanent.

Reconstruction and Civilian Conditions

The reconstruction plan appears to be limited to the Israeli-controlled zone. The Trump plan reportedly envisions rebuilding depopulated areas under Israeli control and then encouraging Gazans to relocate there, with a filtering process to separate them from Hamas. However, this is considered a distant prospect. For the 2 million Palestinians in overcrowded and substandard living conditions, this situation is unsustainable and risks a "spiral of disaster."

Continued Violence Despite Ceasefire

Despite the ceasefire, there have been instances of violence. Israel has conducted air strikes, stating they targeted militants who fired shots at Israeli soldiers. This dynamic has led to over 250 Palestinian deaths since the ceasefire began. The ceasefire is described as "somewhat partial," with Israel retaining significant operational freedom. When Hamas fires back, Israel perceives increased legitimacy to retaliate. This pattern, observed in other regions like Lebanon and Syria, suggests that Israel will act militarily when it chooses to, with consequences for the other side if they retaliate.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The current situation in Gaza is a complex and unstable stalemate. The promised peace plan is facing significant implementation hurdles due to a lack of concrete details, conflicting objectives between key actors, and the ongoing use of military force. The de facto division of Gaza, with Israel controlling a significant portion and Hamas maintaining control over the remaining populated areas, poses a severe humanitarian crisis and a long-term risk of continued conflict. Without substantial compromise from all parties and a clear, actionable plan from international mediators, the prospect of a brighter future for Gazans remains distant, with the potential for further deterioration.