Israel-Iran conflict: A delicate tightrope for Russia | DW News

Israel-Iran Conflict: Russia's Diplomatic Tightrope

Key Concepts:

• Diplomatic balancing act
• Strategic partnership vs. military alliance
• Oil price manipulation
• Power broker
• Military-industrial complex
• Global South

Russia's Position: A Delicate Balancing Act

• President Putin is navigating a complex situation due to Russia's "warm relations with Israel" and its "security agreement with Iran."
• Russia signed a "new strategic partnership" with Iran in January, including provisions to counter shared threats, but explicitly not a military alliance.
• Russia condemned Israel's offensive at the UN, stopping short of offering military assistance to Iran.
• Constantine Edgar describes Russia's position as "lots of words, not a lot of deeds," indicating limited practical action.
• Edgar states that neither Netanyahu nor the Iranians are concerned with Russia's statements at the UN, as they have no impact.

Economic Implications: Oil Price Spikes

• Israeli strikes on Iranian refineries have led to "recent spikes in oil prices," benefiting Russia's economy in the short term.
• This increase in oil revenue undermines efforts by Ukraine and its allies to reduce Russian oil revenues.

Russia-Israel Relations: A History of Cooperation

• Russia has "long-standing ties with Israel," dating back to the creation of the modern Israeli state.
• Putin has maintained "warm relations" with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who frequently visited Russia before the war in Ukraine.
• Russia has "repeatedly demonstrated Russia's readiness to take Israel's interests into account."

Russia as a Potential Power Broker

• Russia's ties with both Israel and Iran could position it as a "potential power broker" in the region.
• This situation offers Russia the "opportunity to further extend its influence across the region."

Military Implications and Lessons for Ukraine

• Iranian-designed drones have played a "key role in Russia's aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities."
• Edgar points out that Iranian air defenses, "completely created by the Russians," proved ineffective against Israeli attacks.
• He suggests that Ukraine and the West will analyze these failures to identify "weak spots in Russian defenses."

Long-Term Consequences for Russia

• Edgar believes the Israeli campaign against Iran "doesn't pretend anything good for Russia in the long term," especially for its military-industrial complex.
• He argues that the conflict has revealed the "impotent" nature of the Russian military-industrial complex, which was behind Iranian rearmament.

Impact on Russia's Global Ambitions

• Russia has been "relegated to a second tier power in the Middle East, and now it's probably third tier power."
• Edgar argues that "alliance with Russia means nothing," as it "didn't save Iran at all."
• This perceived lack of support could damage Russia's reputation in the "Global South," where many countries "looked up to Russia to counter-western influences."
• The conflict may lead countries in the Global South to "have their doubts about Russia's potent respect and Russia's sincerity."
• Edgar concludes that "Russian leadership is all about saving itself and saving the regime," a conclusion that will not be lost on the Global South.

Conclusion

The conflict between Israel and Iran presents a complex challenge for Russia. While Russia attempts to maintain a neutral stance and potentially benefit economically from oil price fluctuations, the situation exposes the limitations of its influence and the ineffectiveness of its military support. This could damage Russia's reputation, particularly in the Global South, and undermine its broader geopolitical ambitions.