Israel-Houthi tit-for-tat strikes: How much sway does Iran have in Yemen? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Houthi militants (Ansar Allah) in Yemen
• Israeli retaliatory strikes
• Iran's support for the Houthis
• Cluster munitions
• Escalation of regional conflict
• Gaza offensive
• Iran-Houthi relationship (proxy vs. aligned interests)

Israeli Strikes on Yemen

• Houthi militias report six deaths and dozens injured in Israeli strikes on Sana'a.
• Israel claims to have targeted power plants and a military site near the presidential palace.
• The strikes are a response to a recent Houthi aerial attack on Israel, which Israel alleges included cluster munitions.
• The Israeli Prime Minister stated the intent was to send a clear message: "Whoever attacks us, we attack them. Whoever plans to attack us, we attack them."
• The Israeli army released footage of fighter jets departing for Yemen, a 2,000 km journey requiring multiple refuelings.
• Israel has conducted retaliatory strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen over the past 22 months in response to missile and drone attacks.

Houthi Attack and Cluster Munitions

• A missile shot down on Friday allegedly contained cluster munitions, indicating improved technology from Iran that is harder to intercept.
• Cluster munitions release smaller bombs, increasing the area of impact and potential for civilian casualties.
• The use of cluster munitions by Iran was also reported during the "12-day war" between Iran and Israel in June.

Regional Escalation and Iran's Role

• The possibility of further escalation in the region is high, given the instability.
• Despite US/UK military campaigns against the Houthis, their strategic infrastructure and coordination capabilities remain largely intact.
• The alleged use of cluster munitions suggests continued Iranian support for the Houthis, who are considered a proxy of Iran.
• Netanyahu's statement about the region learning about Israel's power is interpreted as a message to Iran not to get further involved.

Domestic Impact in Israel

• The Israeli public is increasingly doubtful about Netanyahu's ability to bring stability to the region.
• Protests are increasing, with people fearing for the lives of hostages held in Gaza and opposing a full-scale offensive.
• The ongoing Gaza war is seen by many as a major factor contributing to regional instability.

Gaza Offensive

• The "pre-phase" of a full-scale offensive in Gaza City has already begun, with thousands fleeing.
• The timing of the full-scale offensive is uncertain, but the Israeli military has been pounding neighborhoods north and east of Gaza City.
• The Israeli defense minister has called on reservists to report, but not before September 2nd.
• Netanyahu needs to greenlight the operation in the security cabinet, likely happening soon.

Iran-Houthi Relationship

• The Houthis are considered the "last man standing" among Iranian-backed groups in the region.
• The Houthis are receiving increased support from Iran due to their strategic importance.
• The nature of the Iran-Houthi relationship is debated (proxy vs. aligned interests).
• Sarah Bazubandi argues that the Houthis are unlikely to refuse a request from Iran, especially when it aligns with their own strategic goals.
• Ideological differences exist, but the Houthi leadership has close personal and political ties to senior Iranian officials.
• The Houthis are expected to continue cooperating with Iran as long as they receive financial and military support.

Conclusion

The situation is highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The Israeli strikes on Yemen, the alleged use of cluster munitions by the Houthis, and the ongoing Gaza conflict are all contributing factors. The relationship between Iran and the Houthis remains a key element, with Iran providing support and the Houthis aligning their interests with Iran's regional goals. Domestically, Netanyahu faces increasing pressure in Israel due to the perceived instability and the fear for hostages in Gaza.