ISEAS senior fellow Le Hong Hiep on Vietnam's top leadership, economic goals

Vietnam’s Political Landscape Following the Party Congress

Key Concepts:

• General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (Dolan): The paramount leader of Vietnam, recently reappointed for a fifth term.
• Politburo: The 16-member core leadership body of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV).
• National Assembly: Vietnam’s legislative body, responsible for electing the President and Prime Minister.
• Progrowth Agenda: Nguyen Phu Trong’s economic reform plan focused on streamlining bureaucracy and achieving high GDP growth.
• Five Pillar Leadership Positions: The key leadership roles in Vietnam – General Secretary, President, Prime Minister, National Assembly Chairman, and Head of the Central Military Commission.
• CPV (Communist Party of Vietnam): The ruling political party in Vietnam.

I. Leadership Reconfiguration & Key Players

The recent Communist Party Congress saw the reappointment of Nguyen Phu Trong (referred to as Dolan in the transcript) as General Secretary for another five years, signaling continuity in Vietnam’s leadership and its progrowth economic plans. However, the Congress also necessitates attention to other potential leaders vying for key positions. Dr. Le Hyongy identifies two individuals to watch:

• General Phan Van Giang: Currently the Minister of Defense, potentially in line for promotion to President. However, the likelihood is considered “not very high” due to speculation that Trong himself will seek the presidency.
• Le Minh Hung: Currently the head of the CPV Central Commission of Organization (previously Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam), widely expected to succeed Pham Minh Chinh as the new Prime Minister. His performance in this role will be crucial for both the Vietnamese economy and foreign investors.

The correspondent notes that investors view Trong’s reappointment and the potential appointment of Hung (an ally) as positive developments.

II. The Politburo & Potential Presidential Succession

A critical aspect of the leadership transition revolves around the composition of the 90-member Politburo. The position of Minister of Defense must be held by a Politburo member. Currently, besides General Giang, two other military generals are Politburo members:

• Nguyen Tan Cuong: Political Commissar of the Vietnam People’s Army.
• Tran Van Quyet: Head of the CPV Central Commission for Propaganda and Mass Mobilization.

Dr. Le Hyongy believes neither Cuong nor Quyet will be promoted to Minister of Defense, suggesting Giang will likely remain in his current role. This scenario clears the path for Trong to be elected President. The final confirmation of these appointments is expected in April, following the National Assembly elections in March. However, an extraordinary session of the current National Assembly could be convened earlier, reflecting Trong’s desire for a swift transition.

III. Trong’s Reform Agenda & Economic Goals

Nguyen Phu Trong has been in a leadership position for 17 years, implementing significant administrative and economic changes. A key element of his agenda is streamlining bureaucracy and increasing governmental efficiency. Combining the roles of General Secretary and President (should he be elected) would align with this goal, creating a “linear and hopefully more efficient” governance structure.

This efficiency is considered vital for achieving Trong’s ambitious economic targets. He has tasked the government with delivering at least 10% GDP growth this year – a figure exceeding Vietnam’s historical peak of 9.5% in 1995. While acknowledging the difficulty of this goal, Dr. Le Hyongy suggests it’s a deliberate attempt to push Vietnam to achieve at least 8-9% growth, exceeding previous rates of 6-7%. This drive is fueled by a broader ambition to transform Vietnam into a high-income developed economy by 2045, creating a sense of urgency.

IV. Foreign Policy Continuity & Trong’s Role

No significant changes are anticipated in Vietnam’s foreign policy. Trong has already been a de facto face of Vietnam on the international stage, actively engaging with foreign leaders. If elected President, his role in foreign affairs will expand, allowing him to conduct diplomacy both as party chief and head of state, granting him greater authority and opportunities for interaction with international counterparts to promote Vietnam’s position globally.

V. Procedural Timelines & Key Dates

• March: New National Assembly elections.
• Early April (potentially earlier): New National Assembly convenes, elects the President, Prime Minister, and cabinet. An extraordinary session of the current National Assembly could be held to expedite the process.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The reappointment of Nguyen Phu Trong as General Secretary solidifies a commitment to his progrowth agenda and administrative reforms. The potential for him to also assume the presidency, coupled with the likely appointment of Le Minh Hung as Prime Minister, suggests a concentrated leadership structure aimed at achieving ambitious economic targets. While the 10% GDP growth goal is challenging, it reflects a determined effort to accelerate Vietnam’s development and achieve high-income status by 2045. Vietnam’s foreign policy is expected to remain consistent, with Trong continuing to play a prominent role in international affairs. The coming months will be crucial as the new leadership team is formally established and begins to implement its vision for Vietnam’s future.