Is Ukraine preparing for Belarus without Lukashenko? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Realignment: The shift in Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy toward Belarus in response to changing U.S. foreign policy.
• Exiled Opposition: The Belarusian democratic forces led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
• Strategic Ambiguity: The dual-track approach of preparing for military threats while engaging in political outreach.
• Regime vs. People: The distinction made by Ukrainian leadership between Alexander Lukashenko’s government and the Belarusian populace.
• Russian Influence: The assessment that Belarus’s sovereignty is heavily constrained by Moscow’s military, political, and financial control.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

• Diplomatic Pivot: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shifted his tone toward Belarus, publicly supporting the Belarusian people’s aspiration to be free from Russian interference. This marks a departure from previous years, where Kyiv avoided engaging with the opposition to avoid provoking Lukashenko.
• The "Trump Factor": Analyst Pavo Slunkin suggests this shift is a direct reaction to the new U.S. administration’s approach. With the Trump administration reportedly lobbying for the lifting of sanctions on Belarus and engaging with the current regime, Ukraine fears this policy could eventually extend to Moscow. By embracing the exiled opposition, Kyiv aims to counter this narrative.
• Military Threat Assessment: While Ukraine warns of a potential northern front, experts like Slunkin note a lack of concrete indicators (such as large-scale military drills or troop concentrations) compared to February 2022. The current "threat" is based primarily on infrastructure development at the border and intercepted communications between Russian and Belarusian officials.

2. Important Examples and Real-World Applications

• Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Visit: The exiled leader’s visit to Kyiv is described as highly symbolic. It serves to provide an "alternative face" of Belarus that Western allies can support, contrasting with the current regime that some U.S. factions are attempting to rehabilitate.
• Public Sentiment: Data cited suggests that approximately 97% of Belarusians oppose joining the war in Ukraine, with only 3–4% in favor. Zelenskyy’s messaging is designed to reassure this majority that Ukraine is not their enemy.

3. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The "Two-Track" Strategy: Kyiv is simultaneously preparing for a military threat from the north while attempting to politically decouple Belarus from Russia.
• Limited Agency: Slunkin argues that Lukashenko has little leverage to resist Vladimir Putin. Therefore, the threat of a new invasion is less about Lukashenko’s personal desire and more about whether Putin decides to force the issue.
• The "Moscow Dependency": The most significant argument presented is that the future of Belarus is not determined in Minsk or on the Ukrainian battlefield, but in Moscow. As long as Russia maintains its tight grip on Belarus, internal change is unlikely without a shift in the power dynamics within the Kremlin.

4. Notable Quotes

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "We all support the aspiration of the Belarusian people to free themselves from Russian interference."
• Pavo Slunkin: "I think they [Kyiv] don’t believe that there is enough leverage in Minsk in Lukashenko’s regime to stand up against Putin’s decisions."
• Pavo Slunkin: "I believe that in the current geopolitical situation, we almost don’t have any real chances for change until something shifts in Moscow."

5. Technical Terms and Concepts

• Exiled Opposition: Political leaders and activists who have been forced to leave their country due to persecution by the ruling regime.
• Sanctions Lobbying: The act of influencing foreign governments to remove or impose economic penalties on a specific state.
• Status Quo: The existing state of affairs, particularly regarding the current political and military alignment between Russia and Belarus.

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The recent diplomatic outreach by President Zelenskyy to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya represents a calculated strategic move to preemptively counter shifting Western policies toward the Lukashenko regime. While Kyiv remains vigilant regarding the military threat from the north, the lack of observable mobilization suggests the current alarm is as much about political signaling as it is about immediate tactical danger. Ultimately, the analysis concludes that Belarus remains a satellite of Russia, and any meaningful change in the Belarusian political landscape is contingent upon a weakening or transformation of the regime in Moscow.