Is the US preparing for war in the Pacific? | ABC News

Key Concepts:

• Pacific Deterrence Initiative
• Agile Combat Employment (ACE)
• First strike missile range
• US military strategy in the Asia-Pacific
• Chinese military expansion
• Tinian Island's strategic importance
• Balance of power between US and China

1. US Military Rebuilding in the Asia-Pacific:

• The US is rebuilding its military presence across the Asia-Pacific region, including near Australia.
• The Pacific Deterrence Initiative involves spending close to $10 billion.
• $600 million has been committed to upgrading RAF Tindal air base in Australia's Northern Territory.
• RAF Tindal was used to launch a bombing attack on Houthi rebels in Yemen using B2 bombers.

2. Tinian Island: A Strategic Flashpoint:

• Tinian Island, part of the Northern Mariana Islands (a US protectorate), is being heavily remilitarized.
• The US is pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into building out military infrastructure on Tinian.
• Tinian was a crucial US Air Force base during World War II, used by the bombers that dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
• The base was abandoned in 1947 but is now being revived.

3. Chinese Propaganda Video as a Catalyst:

• A Chinese military propaganda video depicting a fictional attack on America's Anderson Air Base on Guam spurred the US to action.
• The video showcased advanced Chinese H6 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
• The US government is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to avoid the scenario depicted in the video.

4. Agile Combat Employment (ACE) Strategy:

• The refurbishment of Tinian's North air base is part of the US military's Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy.
• ACE involves dispersing aircraft to smaller bases to make it harder for an attacker to destroy the entire air fleet in a single attack.
• US military outposts in the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Guam are within first strike missile and aircraft range of mainland China.

5. Other Islands Being Re-militarized:

• The dirt air strip on the US island of Peleliu was reopened late last year after a similar reconstruction.
• Both Tinian and Peleliu are around 3,000 km away from China's coast, making them capable of launching an air response to any attack.
• These islands act as a "static aircraft carrier."

6. Shifting Balance of Power:

• The US recognizes that China has a growing military advantage in the region.
• Tinian's revival symbolizes a new era where the US has lost military and strategic primacy in Asia, and there is a balance of power between the US and China.
• "I think the way that the United States is now preparing to use Tinyan as a sort of fallback base because of China's growing military might is actually symbolic of a new era in which the United States has lost military and strategic primacy in Asia and where China and the United States effectively uh have a balance of power"

7. Implications for Australia:

• The level of US military force deployed in the Pacific is roughly the same as it was at the end of the Cold War.
• If the basing refurbishments are seen in isolation, it indicates that the US is preparing to survive a war against China but is not prepared to win one.
• Australians should be doing more for themselves.

8. Conclusion:

• The remilitarization of islands like Tinian shows that the US is growing increasingly prepared for a war with China.
• These islands will be a key part of the front line in any future conflict between the world's two great superpowers.
• There is hope that the more both sides are prepared for war, the less likely they will be to take that fateful step.